Serenity

Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approachin…

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and ex…

$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.

Bro why are we fighting a Trade War with our friendly Golden Retriever named Canada. Shouldn't we be focusing on Iran today? Trump: Announces 50% Tariffs On Cars, Automotive Parts, and Steel From 2027. https://t.co/40SbPDPMFC

$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other st…

After watching clips of China's humanoid Olympics... I think we're cooked chat. Still can't believe $GOOGL sold Boston Dynamics, don't think we have another humanoid that can backflip. https://t.co/uERCqW85F5

Having a mid-X identity crisis rn: ✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone ✓ we got $AMD bandanas ✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident ✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames ✓ 1M followers Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?

Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently: The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement. And… Spider-Man: “Brand New Day” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo

It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently. Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker. And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030. This month we also had: - Drone component tariffs - American Mining / Critical Mineral deals - Polysilicon supply chains tariffs and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.

It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right. At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive. But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly. Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.

Uhh Citadel? > Say emergency rate hike. More crashes/liquidations follow > No rate hike > Reaches out to buy liquidated hedge fund portfolios > buys billions of Situational Awareness holdings. > Says AI bull case is intact >markets rally > Sells AI stocks into the buying pressure I’m just stating the timeline here…

Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-u…

There’s a lot of viral fabricated screenshots of me going around recently. Some are annoying jokes for engagement, like text-edited posts from me citing bible verses. But some like “Innolight secures Nvidia NPO orders” or off platform promotional content are maliciously fabricated. Unfortunately I don’t have the power to prevent false images from circulating. So please make sure to double check primary sources.

After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb

Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale ou…

@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.

I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery. Aside from that just some TLDR stuff: - $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes. - $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this. - $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO. The Chinese IPO market…

$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used ​with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage ​and move information ⁠across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion ​in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.

We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the s…

Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.

My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...

@HowlStWoofer $CCXI is targeting commercialization first, since they're in places like $AMZN and $MELI warehouses for human automation. I don't think Agility's Robots need to do backflips to do deliveries or packaging. Same with Amazon warehouse workers. Two different use cases, think Boston Dynamics is the closest peer in terms of breaking limits on what robotics can do. $TSLA is also targeting general purpose, but I don't quite think they can pull that off yet. Regardless, seeing if the US can catch up and leapfrog China will be very interesting.

I'm getting Vietnam flashbacks to the launch of OpenAi. Where with every model, it just keeps getting better... but now with hunanoids. Unitree has claimed that their humanoids: - Can now run faster than Usain Bolt. - Can now jump higher than any human. And with their IPO tomorrow, it seems like China is leading the hardware race.

Looks like we're getting the Strait of America, a new US territory... https://t.co/HCQ139Ys4V

So just tracking the MLCC cycle: ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting: - Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data. Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing. - Murata was ~24 weeks in June. July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks. This was interesting: “The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027” Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term…

I've decided to name my next two pets Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors

It's official, Unitree the 8000x+ retail oversubscribed humanoid company in China. Is expected to go public in 2 days! So the 19th. Opening is implied to be around ~$41.66B MC per derivatives, around +363.3% above its ~$9B IPO valuation. Fun times for humanoids this week. https://t.co/yav4oRs2bO

Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...

I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs. If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM: My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs. From July 6th: "the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets." July 28th: "AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge" Aug 12: As [MLCC] capacity sh…