Serenity

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (bu…

If you hid the ticker, you would think this was an AI bottleneck name. https://t.co/6rR1BWYRb9

$NIKE 只需要做一件事，就能挽救自己的品牌形象 https://t.co/mhV2qUSSM3

Demand for Astra is unprecedented to the point OpenAI might pause new Pro subscriptions. If you want a translation: AI buildout + compute go brrr.

Special thank you to awodias for the crowdsourced channel check all the way from CIOE 2026 Shenzhen! - Confirmed that $SIVE is actively engaged with Chinese pluggable makers - $SIVE has raised lasers prices given tight supply - 70mW lasers seem the most tight given association with 800g pluggables It’s pretty cool that our little community reaches all the way around the world. (Also thank you if other people did channel checks and I missed it, this was the first one I saw)

How https://t.co/pkCKZ7zIrK

Okay I know this is US time and this is a Taiwan stock... But I really am starting to think $ESMT (3006) can cook like $SNDK. And I’m excited. So hopefully in a few months, people can something say similar... FUN FACT CHAT: Did you know.. 1 old DDR2 memory chip is.. ~$0.96? (from LCSC data) Obviously different per spec since some can be $2.5... But if you 3x ASP Hike this. That's a whole... ~$2 added to final BOM cost. So about the same cost as a $COST hot dog. It goes into things like a D-Link security camera, maybe like $33 final cost... and adds like $2. (which people won't mind) But... 3X ASP hike to ESMT? Is very, very materia…

$NBIS is back, and coming in hot with a new partnership with $PLTR. Palantir also named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. The implications are potentially significant considering Palantir’s existing relations with the US Gov + Enterprises. https://t.co/izCDuR4r6Q

$AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants. At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA? Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others. This of course is linked with up to $60B in milestone revenue from Amazon/Qualcomm custom silicon partnership. Good for both companies, moreso Qualcomm.

Wow, $HOOD has taken minority ownership in Crypto‌.com. It does feel like the future of the finance industry is slowly consolidating around Stripe/Robinhood. Especially after the successful expansion of Robinhood Chain, Prediction Markets, and Credit Cards/Banking. https://t.co/FXZTmVaIo5

So $INTC is raising PC CPU prices by 10% apparently in October per Digitimes, which I think markets might appreciate. The legacy memory trade also just going brrr from August revenues: -> ESMT revenue up ~+605% Y/Y, 16.4% M/M Which is interesting given gross margins also rising tremendously too. -> Etron revenue up +525% Y/Y, +6.4% M/M Chairman says he sees growth momentum in memory to extend through 2028 or longer, potentially 2030. (which is very positive read through for ESMT given what Etron sells) *own ESMT/Etron -> Winbond revenue up +289.43% Y/Y, up 2% M/M Their president says memory supply and demand are expected to be even tighte…

Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too! If you want my read on current landscape: -> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers. If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and deposits to secure capacity” along with statements of shortages. -> Innolight and others were also looking to secure multiple laser suppliers with LTAs recently from their filings. On the US side of things: -> $COHR was a major merchant laser supplier before, but largely withdrew from the market after rerouting them internally. "I do not see any tim…

I don’t think I want to be in this timeline anymore. We got AGI with Astra and Hunter Biden $LAPTOP in the same weekend.

Uhh chat, did we accidentally AI bottleneck-pill Warren Buffett's $BRK.B successor Greg Abel? https://t.co/FnHS87s6XN

New report from Bloomberg on $IQE: “indium phosphide substrates is emerging as a key risk for the semiconductor industry.” I wonder who could have guessed this last year with $AXTI? https://t.co/ETW7Y2Pz7z

I'll let you decide that for yourself since that was an illustrative laser revenue modeling off $SIVE 100M CW DFB laser/year target. But... do you want to know the main reason I like laser companies so much? They don't just have to stay laser companies... just look at $LITE! If we look at Lumentum's previous Cloud Light acqusition (pluggables)... it enabled: - more than a 5X+ expansion in served opportunity inside DCs. From Lumentum's OFC deck: - ELS expansion from UHP laser chips was 2X TAM opportunity.. But selling lasers alone... just from one UHP laser fab was $5B in projected revenue capacity (their fab expected to ramp in early 2…

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes? SED reported today that: Samsung / $SKHY "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast" KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history" KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached) "Both stocks have fallen 38% from their pea…

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown: 1. $AXTI - InP substrates 2. $NBIS - Neoclouds 3. $MU - Memory 4. $INTC - Foundry 5. $LITE - Photonics 6. $IQE - Epiwafers 7. $AAOI - Photonics 8. $GDRZF - Venezuela 9. $AEHR - Machines 10. $EWY (volatility + underlying) 11. $RPI - AI orchestration 12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates 13. $SNDK - Memory 14. $SIMO - Memory 15. $MRVL - ASICs 16. Nanya - memory 17. Unimicron - substrates 18. $ARM - CPUs 19. $SIVE - Photonics From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners. Since many like…

Oh cool! $SIVE also made it there on cnyes too (leading Taiwan financial media)! The English translation might be off a bit, but this was summarizing Sivers surprising 100M+ CW DFB annual laser capacity expansion, ~ operational Q4 2027. And how given historical ASP from previous year presentation slides, it could translate to $625M-$1.25B capacity revenue ceiling at full utilization. Sivers might be of more interest given its partnerships with local foundries like Win Semi. And since its downstream partners like Ayar (Mediatek / Alchip CPO partner) are heavily investing in Taiwanese optical supply chains.

I asked OpenAI Astra Ultra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 Max to make me a 5x-10x return type portfolio in 1 year. Burnt a lot of credits, and the results are in: OpenAI: - $KYTX (autoimmune CAR-T results) - $PRQR (human RNA-editing datasets) - $VSTM (KRAS cancer-drug) - $CNTB (asthma and COPD) - $RANI (oral biologics) - $IVA (MASH) - $SILC (networking + inference hardware) - $AMPX (batteries) - $EOSE (batteries) - $ZVRA (rare-disease drug growth) Anthropic: - $INO (respiratory papillomatosis) - $CAPR (PDUFA for deramiocel) - $GOSS (seralutinib) - $SLS (Phase 3 binary) - $IREN (familiar face) - $WULF (familiar face) - $OKLO (nuclear) - $SMR (nuclea…

I’m not sure how OpenAI was likely holding off their IPO to 2027. Because they had concerns about a $1T valuation 3 months ago. Then Anthropic investors go and say **** it, lets one-up $SPCX and IPO at $2T next month? https://t.co/wkMuzkCrzd

Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gr…

我觉得这种思路很好：借鉴我对 ESMT DDR2/DDR3 等老一代存储芯片的研究, 举一反三. 或者把我研究 $AAOI 时关于 CW 激光器供需失衡的思路, 应用到 A 股. 很开心看到大家学习我的思考方式，而不是照抄具体的股票, 并用这些思路去寻找自己看好的做多标的！

@kevs_World02 Some random $90m MC biotech company that I'd prefer not to mention lol. It also really likes $OUST for some reason (don't have any).

Let me get this straight chat… you have: $NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+) $AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself. $MSFT / $GOOGL / $AMZN stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027. You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030. Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations. Markets always have temporary drawdowns…

@onlycryptomuddy this one is satire

@rektusd101 I actually support $HOOD here, but agree with the $AMC CEO a narrow point: That US needs clearer regulations on tokenized equities so they can be offered regularly in the states. Just for people who are missing context: https://t.co/aRmgiTcyW4

From my channel checks, it appears Korean retail is firmly siding with $HOOD over the $AMC CEO. Korean sources find the prospect of 40x leveraged Samsung / $SKHY a powerful enough argument to win the tokenization debate.

@maxwilliamson__ I did a typeracer challenge just now to answer this question https://t.co/s5zL1JeJ2w

So... here's my take on US / China tensions: You have European monopolies like: - $ASML (EUV) - $SOI (Photonics-SOI) - Zeiss SMT (ASML EUV supplier), Trumpf (ASML EUV laser supplier) Japan has many near/complete monoplies like: - TOK, JSR, ShinEstu, Fujifilm for EUV photoresist - 90-100% share - coat/develop equiment with Tokyo Electron -90%+ - actinic EUV patterned mask inspection (Lasertec) -100% share - EUV mask blanks (HOYA, AGC) ~93% share - arf photoresist - Nittobo T-Glass - ABF film (Ajinomoto) - lot of misc from specialty glassAGC, wafer thinning/grinding/dicing with Disco and others. Then there's US allied countries like Taiwan e…