Serenity

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to s…

Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

If you want a TLDR of today: &gt; be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO &gt; analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! &gt; market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” &gt; Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and oppor…

CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm…

I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583

$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade. Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM. Was such a goated call? (~383% return) Had way too many great ideas this year… Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration https://t.co/Kjur1bdKp7

Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.

Given my recent popularity, might be a good time to put out a PSA. Early followers have known this from the start: 1. I don't do any paid promotions, paid marketing, or accept outside gifts. But I appreciate all the recent outreach from companies! If you see or engage with something online related to any type of payment, it's fabricated for engagement or a scammer. The reason I don't want to is because I'm just posting on X for fun, and when money is involved it turns into a job (which I don't want it to feel like). Also, well off personally so I've never felt influenced by anyone outside. 2. The only "paid" thing I have is $1 subscrip…

A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector …

Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyper…

I do see a lot of comments about "harvesting the leeks". And I hope my picks like LeaderDrive can help change that perspective around certain equities being good long term holds. I think my only Chinese listed pick was Innolight last year, and that's up triple digits to ATH? All my ideas come from a Western perspective (eg. institutional research from JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs I synthesize) and what US hyperscalers like $GOOGL or $MSFT require. And I do consider about geopolitical tensions + game theory all the time, such as with $AXTI. I think a foreigner's perspective brings a different kind of alpha here, and I'm excited to share how …

我怎么有种奇怪的感觉… 我的中国粉丝是不是都在等我喊新票啊 lol？ 我看好的标的（比如 688017 绿的谐波）通常都是做长线，可不是只拿几天就走！ 不过，这周我确实会再去挖几个新机会研究一下。

Can someone tell me what caused $INHD to go up 3660.95%? https://t.co/qYFnOwUQFC

Nah, Jim Cramer is like the 4th Newton’s Law. Inverse Cramer just written into the laws of the universe. I’ve been bullish on $RDDT since $140. But Cramer was telling everyone to buy Reddit the entire time since Feb. So it’s been flat. https://t.co/gRHq6gRKTi

Still think this US list from $MRVL to $ARM to $INTC was goated. Just as a recap if new followers were wondering what US equities I like. Especially because I've been talking about international companies recently. https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh

@ark_btc I compiled 32+ different names related to $NVDA 800V DC mentioned by followers. And posted them in a simple format for people to do research on. Not my recommendations lol.

Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM

???? 大家都知道这只是个众包名单吧？ 300376怎么涨了20%啊哈哈 https://t.co/OdmqmIYB6V

I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique. Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk. Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times: -> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear). -> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced. In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover: 1. Many different com…

I appreciate the objective coverage from 中国证券报 (China Securities Journal) on my LeaderDrive (688017) analysis! On the article: “A single tweet ignites the leading robotics stock, who exactly is the "White-Haired God of Stocks" Serenity?” Supply chains are global, and my research shows that Chinese companies like 688017 hold a dominant position over low-cost, mass production as humanoids scale up. Just a heads up: I do believe Leaderdrive’s position is very undervalued long term (next few years), if you weigh component costs vs. current customers vs. robotics TAM. But I don’t control any near term volatility, especially with macro climate…

@beauty_oe Thanks! I’ll look try and beat his 1.8M follower count in the name of all my Japanese speaking supporters. I’m very grateful for the early support and appreciation everyone has shown me while I was getting started on X.

@oxbuliang I added it to my bio! https://t.co/ddF8shxiOr

哇？我的粉丝数竟然突破70万了……而且在过去的短短3天里，我又额外收获了5000名订阅者。 真的非常感谢大家。 尤其要特别感谢最近给予我巨大支持的中文社区！ https://t.co/nLLSohl0lN

On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx

Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after a…

Hyperscaler supply chains are global! Taiwan... you have all the foundries, packaging, CPO development, etc. Korea... Faker, Aespa, and maybe memory companies. Japan... all the chemicals/substrates/weird stuff like Toilets. EU... All the high tech lasers, machines. US just the final output of them all.