Serenity

It's very frustrating since... what if the $600m August ATM finishes, then they file another $600M ATM in October? I'm happy to support financing for their buildout, but there's 0 clarity to the end of the ATM loop or how much funding they actually need. If they just said "we need $3.5B", mixes LTAs, private placements, ATMs to get this done, there wouldn't be as much confusion. I'm super excited operationally, but how they do financing is very concerning.

$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for…

I would have a much more favorable view on $IREN after they finish their $6B ATM in terms of stock performance (I think they're like 41.5% through). I think Mirantis acqusition would materially shift a lot of perception of how they rank relative to $CRWV, $NBIS, Lambda, Tensorwave, and others in terms of cluster performance once they finish integration. I've always started software side of things is actually a moat (backing up what Coreweave CEO was saying), which was what $IREN lacked before. But M&A to get that gap fixed is probably the most bullish part of what they've done.

@tradesidious @kkkkk61216936 I still have $CCXI, they haven't even had the listing event yet, so volatility up until then is kinda meaningless to me.

@qwertyuipasd11 @FransBakker9812 Good times, I've made amends with $IREN though https://t.co/zdJmHgXLfx

@kkkkk61216936 I cut my positions here https://t.co/XJBWaBQQmQ

Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild. Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius... Despite the the hate from FinX back then. Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop… After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening. With Oracle: "seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC ​project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters. Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back…

@troyluhman @elonmusk @ellev3n11 Makes sense that all the best engineers have anime PFPs

It’s mainly thesis tracking mode now since I layed out most of my ideas H1 from $INTC, $ARM to $MU. Or $SIVE to $AAOI or $AXTI or $NBIS Only two recent ones were $ESMT for legacy memory trade and $CCXI for humanoids but aside from that it’s just seeing if they get validated over time Stuff like large body substrates or CXL or MLCC with newer discovery, I’ve already published earlier on

I’ve actually entered positions in many tiny Korean companies recently… That actively supply memory, test, machines, etc. to $MU, $SKHY, Samsung, and others like $SMTC + US companies. It’s pretty interesting what you find in the $30-$250m range for optical components, CPUs, memory, and others that are inflecting due to AI. I don’t share these names publicly since risks/volatility is enormous. But one or two going from $40M -> $400m makes the risk/reward worth it for me personally.

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the…

Elon Musk: "AI will beat [humans] in all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest." Kind of maps to Anthropic's economic implications paper where 2026-2028 was the buildout. Then 2028-2030 was unprecedented economic growth. So we're still early H2 2026. https://t.co/LpGJkHcgn2

I guess I need to start calling $SNDK or $LITE Super Intelligence stocks. Thanks Trump. https://t.co/x7tJcKjfsc

I feel like traditional "value investing" went into hibernation. Before it was finding a 10x -12x P/E company like $UPWK or $PYPL, Dominoes, Pepsi. Or even a cheap Japanese company below book value. Then just enjoying slow growth but buyback/dividend appreciation from their cashflow. Now you can find 1.8x runrate P/E company like $ESMT that grew revenue 605.24% Y/Y. And the main thing you need to argue about is duration. Or a 16.2x trailing P/E Sumitomo, despite having way too many hyperscaler LTAs in AI from fiber to lasers. AI created much bigger medium-term anomaly, where "value investing" went towards high growth, "deep value" compa…

Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries. Looks like $HOOD / $COIN / Crypto is back? On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector. That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies). So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.

All right $META Muse is cooking. I can hear all the $AMD, $INTC, and $ARM CPUs vrrrring in the background. Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks… Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there. I’m also curious how much $AMZN or $NBIS is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse. Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release. Will keep trying it out

We’re in the modern agricultural revolution. In terms of civilization-level impact of AI. So… not sure how anyone can be bearish so early on into the singularity and before mass deployment of physical AI. https://t.co/uJAXpZm4MP

I'm not having a fun day since I got sick today. But the bottlenecks are having a good time: $AMD +9.13% | $INTC +14.16% | $ARM +14.33% CPUs go brrr $SIVE +10.32% | $AAOI +3.39% | AMS OSRAM +24.61% Lasers go brrr $EWY +4.08% | $DRAM +2.83% | $MU +2.23% Memory go brrr $NBIS +4.7% | $CRWV +5.03% | $IREN +1.73% Compute go brrr Probably most material developments were CPU:GPU ratio expectations + CPU demand (from new AI releases). As well as optical developments from ECOC 2026 (as seen with $MRVL PR + others) Still a lot to catch up on.

The internet is now cooked soon? With $RDDT to other social media like X more at risk due to AI. You can have new decision models like Jev making autonomous computer interaction at near $0 cost. (With actions becoming more human-like/adapative) Then LLMs outputs influencing behavior or leading conversations. So at scale, a malicious actor can spawn 50,000,000 bots just roaming the internet, with LLM prompts convincing people + manufacturing public opinion. The main bottleneck would be phone number, IP, account age, maybe hardware for compute + device identifiers (which is extremely cheap still)… rather than LLM cost. I’ve already anecdo…

Jev potential implications + applications are actually insane to think about Does anyone have experience using open source decision model variants yet?

While everyone is focused on Bessent/He Lifeng talks today. Or $LITE / $MRVL / $SIVE at ECOC optical conference... I'm just curious why my followers can leave 2K+ comments if I post in Chinese... But if I share something in English: I only get 50 comments. Feels bad anon

Just floating out an idea to $AVGO: If you lock up $SIVE laser supply for next few years since you need “more laser capacity”. You could unintentionally cause bottlenecks across your main ASIC competitors: Like $MRVL (Celestial), AlChip, Mediatek, GUC (Ayar CPO), first gen deployments. Where many also seem to be aligned with your best friend $NVDA… Maybe it’s worth discussing spending spare change to lock up the remaining merchant laser supply?

Apparently, we just took over Greenland? Exciting news on a Friday…

So on optical vs. photonics... Memory like $MU / $SKHY is in it's current supercycle. -> RBC channel checks for example projects 80-100% HBM ASP hikes for 2027. -> Per $NVDA ER, Hyperscaler capex goes up in 2027. Then you have 68% of hyperscaler capex per Trendforce going to DRAM/NAND. -> 50-70% for next 3-5 years already allocated toward LTAs. So supercycle is here... demand visibility is high and the price hikes are still ongoing. As photonics like $SMTC to $AAOI, I expect to cook heavily in 2027 since we're already seeing widespread optical shortages in 2026. Plus, you're going from $67.7B in 2026 (per GS) to $131.4B TAM in 2027 for …

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says compone…

Just in case you're wondering why I'm so bullish on legacy memory... Their hikes seem a lot extreme than $NBIS reported +17-21% GPU rentals today or Taiyo-Murata type MLCC hikes. Price hikes projections expected for H2: - SLC NAND: +120-170% in H2 vs H1 - High-capacity NOR: +90-110% in H2 vs H1 - ~DDR3/DDR4: +50% Q3 - DDR2: +35-40% in Q3 - LPDDR: +20% or more in Q3 - DDR1, older LPDDR and PSRAM: also rising As a consolidated view... Lot of these are stacked off existing hikes H1, (eg. 130-150% for H1 SLC NAND), so you get +406%-575% cumulative throughout 2026. Which impacts blended net income overall more than upstream wafer COGS hikes …

Reminiscent of $NVDA w/ $LITE + $COHR: Foxconn is now considering joint investments to avoid upstream material shortages. Foxconn Interconnect Chairman identifies CW lasers and fiber as the biggest bottleneck in photonics. Very interesting to see these two themes reiterated across industry commentary. Almost like a certain Anime character on X was right about CW laser bottlenecks.

@two3pro Trendforce also has a standalone piece for $SIVE capacity projections https://t.co/9SD8tUN87h

$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody bel…

Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g