Serenity

VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today. Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers. This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are. (disclosure: have positions in IQE)

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just oth…

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector. Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet). As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases. "The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers" per The Information.

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently. It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains. Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply. People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties. But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields. Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity. It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technological…

Yes, again a major trade is going short on developing US firms trying to reshore production to the West (losing money or require capex). Then long on Asian equities that are either subsidized or already ramped. Whether it's SiC, Solar, or other sectors. Gov subsidies are typically never enough alone. It's not a charity, but generally it's positive sum if markets do the rest in supporting the growth of Western supply chains.

@cats_crypto Because people are idiots and I need to put disclaimers because they can't read the first time. https://t.co/OWx7WyGHqG

At this point I can't tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro. Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion. And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX... Anyone know? https://t.co/sTLjsGq95V

@WENXIN229986 that's literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile.

@Moon1ightSt not sure, we'll see if it's good or bad for overall markets since it might be a liquidity vacuum of people selling other assets for $SPCX! But we'll find out soon! For the USD at least, it's very positive.

@soulbiri1 Why thank you. Hopefully leading retail down the right path of information democratization.

There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

@assetrend 2028 is far away, but I call this frontrunning.

Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as futur…

@Albert_TheVoid Yep thanks for DMing me the find https://t.co/9XXIHqvEUO

@Marketmakemkc I'm not taking credit for this, was all follower information discovery. Again just pointing out a new connection ahead of SpaceX's IPO that might be interesting. https://t.co/F1eqDALb99

Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier. You can find it in SpaceX US import logs. It's fun information discovery ahead of Space'x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails. Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM! Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo... Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.

I like $SIVE

@super_avg Trade war? Japan/EU/US has a ton of capabilities that can cripple China's frontier buildout too. Lot of it is zero-sum so countries will likely continue supplying to one another.

@Ud197601 Everyone kept calling $AXTI a scam, and my thesis BS on $RDDT. Glad to see my thesis being validated by Reuters and Chinese/US trade negotiations lol.

这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！

@TesttestI23 Flood of negative news recently about CPO timelines as well as overall macro drop.

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to s…

Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1

Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i

Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.

If you want a TLDR of today: &gt; be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO &gt; analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! &gt; market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” &gt; Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???

$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and oppor…

CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm…