Serenity

$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters" This statement was largely missed by many screeners. Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines. https://t.co/iOceCgJTG4

Just some of the more interesting news I came across recently: 1. MS: Revised China humanoid shipments to reach 50,000 in 2026 from 14,000u and 28,000u earlier this year. 2. MS: Probe cards and test sockets likely to be priced hike (precious metal hikes + severe shortage of test pin capacity) 3. Capacitor price hikes: MLCC, aluminum electrolytic, tantalum, polymer aluminum, film, and super capacitors from Yageo. 4. $META Vistara architecture: Older DDR4 Memory with CXL as memory expansion 5. OpenAI achieved inference optimization breakthrough that halves costs and reduces GPU requirements. 6. LTAs are being signed with MLCC after Samsun…

I told you making the robots look hot might be a bottleneck: Today, UBTech has now announced its first full-size hyper realistic humanoid robot girlfriend. For adults only to purchase for only ~$145,717.90. -"The U1 series emphasizes attractive appearance and is only available for adults to purchase." - "It Can Imitate Most Human Movements and Expressions, and Also Has Long-Term Memory" - "U1’s surface uses bionic materials and a gel structure to simulate skin texture, elasticity, and a warm touch." UBTECH founder, chairman, and CEO Zhou Jian said on stage that just before going up, he learned that orders had exceeded 11,000 units. Hal…

Congrats to $SIVE, they have now raised an upside round of 700m SEK from institutional investors. The round was “Multiple Times Oversubscribed” and slightly upsided. Validating immense institutional demand around current market prices. This raise was specifically for "expanding manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers" (volume ramping with fab-light model). Hinting Sivers has reached the inflection point for scale. The round was at 57 SEK (current prices are 63 SEK), which I’m personally very happy about as it’s around current market prices, which typically sets a floor. Instituional money has now de-risked the balan…

$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap ta…

Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated for mass production next year (they have a 10,000+ /year capacity). Investors include Foxconn, $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank, and now Serenity. I've been personally waiting for humanoid exposure for awhile (Agility is set to be the first US pure-play listed one) to the point I was actually planning on investing in Unitree's IPO. But I'm glad now I personally have a compel…

There was a pretty funny anecdotal complaint from the Machine Learning $RDDT subreddit. On $CBRS + OpenAI: - Needs 1-2K tokens/sec so tries to use Cerebras. - Claims OpenAI reserved all capacity, making waitlist infinite for everyone else not a hyperscaler. - Stated alternatives with Groq’s API not accessible to them Feels bad. But it does show how few players / limited capacity there is for fast inference.

Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META. When China entities like 360 go and claim: They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments. (Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber nuclear weapon, then claimed they built a Chinese equivalent). We're probably witnessing the modern cold war. But instead of nuclear stockpiles, it's racing to build superintelligence both offensively and defensively. With many different "battles" happening concurrently like supply chain export controls between China -> Japan -> US hyperscalers. The funny thing is that …

I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone! Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts... Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year. 1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy. - Random new accounts sending personal threats - Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point... Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion. 2. Egregious media narratives - Lot …

For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal pos…

Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei. "The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan" https://t.co/RDFvgQNVsp

$GM cuts 1,000 workers and replaces them with 50 robots (Jun 22nd report) Reports also show GM is working on a deal with $NVDA on factory robotics. This is industry validation for robotics, since it likely demonstrates increased opex margins + efficiency from employee automation. Especially from companies like $AMZN to General Motors with assembly/warehouse lines that have high headcount. I think the technology is already here and use cases are already proven. Robotics/Humanoids are just pre-scale right now. The wording from large companies is “assistive robotics”… But in all honesty, it’s here to automate away the human workforce and in…

Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lum…

Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce - Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE. - Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities - and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life. Wha…

Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics. -ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid - targeting 10% market share of that. But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market. Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus. Many of them are trade at lower valuations from …

Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing power restrictions prevented Google Cloud from taking on more customer needs and made the department's backlog nearly double the previous quarter. This is probably positive for the AI DC capex buildout since hyperscalers capacity is way below what is needed, and especially so if they can't rely on one another.

WSJ: “China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race” China’s Zhipu AI, has matched Anthropic’s Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs. Well, that’s not good. Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing… Anthropic’s clearly at fault for not setting enough guardrails to prevent distillation. Even before Fable release there were a lot of rumors that China had backdoors to distill it. Part of it is the trillions of capex to accelerate the AI moat. And the second part is not handing that work over on a silver platter for millions in API calls.

@buy_the_day Bro look at $RR on the left. And then humanoids deployed in military combat on the right. I feel like the right one is what markets want exposure to https://t.co/EY2wHjfQmH

$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek. I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far. But if you get to the millions in past 2028, it’s probably material to revenue

I’m actually very bullish on Unitree for CN domestic markets. However I don’t think there’s going to be much US market penetration for Chinese humanoids. Especially with the DJI incident where a hacker could see into everyone’s house, and shows what foreign companies have access to.

Ah sorry. I would have posted this idea like <10m when the new news broke. But I don’t post new positions during market hours anymore and I have a compliance review for each of my posts, which delays things a tiny bit. My follower count is uncomfortably high compared when I had none few months back, so need to be cautious now.

pls don’t blindly follow along, esp. since I actively manage my own positions! $CBRS is just a cautionary position for me right now. Cause things evolve every month in the AI space (eg. Custom jalapeño chips, maybe OpenAI has troubles, rate hikes), etc. But if it’s compelling to you, you do you.

Kinda nutty OpenAI’s is launching its heavyweight 5.6 Sol frontier model on $CBRS. At up to 750 tokens/sec, which is obscene performance. American inference go brrr. I actually picked up starter positions on Cerebras for the first time in the ~170s (below $185 IPO price) after seeing this news yesterday. Feels like validation of its tech. IMO a bit overvalued compared to profitable companies like $JBL at the same valuation. But there’s likely premiums for OpenAI exposure, as long as they stay the leader.

@beauty_oe ニュースが発表された時、誰がすぐに恩恵を受けるのかを考えるようにしているんです。 $SPCXによるMeshの買収後、初期のスタートアップと協業してきた実績を考えると $SIVE が恩恵を受けそうだなと思いました。 フォロワー2万人達成、おめでとうございます！

$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in alre…

@BeerMoneyBull Oh yes no hikes is extremely bullish since feels like markets recently sold off on fed tightening fears + BofA 3 hike projections.

Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes). Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline. https://t.co/9OL7od94JP

@MeritedChunk I'm actually against making extreme high end open source models. We did that experiment with RISC-V and gave China a way around ARM and others.

Nah DeepSeek is actually very innovative. That's why I'm saying US models just needs to get good. As for distillation that's another problem that can be solved with bank level security/onboarding + regulations, at least for the frontier models. Since it's against TOS but not a crime to share credentials like Netflix accounts yet to those proxy networks. Should be treated like sharing bank accounts.

just throwing out a random thought, the UBS report is anecdotally true + and it's interesting there's more Chinese reports on Anthropic distillation. Many US startups/companies using AI: Are using Chinese models like DeepSeek since they’re much cheaper than Gemini/OpenAI/Anthropic reasoning models for cost per task. Kinda a catch 22 when US is built on capitalism and everyone goes for the cheaper options. I think the US just has to get good and out innovate here: - both with heavy KYC-auth frontier models for US only like Mythos given those are being distilled by competitors. and amybe staggered tiers for allied partners so US is always …