Serenity

Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contr…

Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck): - Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN. - As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply. - Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells. So main beneficiaries imo look like: - Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners - Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol - LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming There's not really much direct US play…

Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).

@fivepointscap Yep, $SE $MELI $JD $AMZN and the other e-commerce giants are the most obvious beneficiary of physical AI push that I can think of Given they can optimizing opex immediately with robotics. Names like $META are kinda less clear.

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers". Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market. Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance... "Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority." This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoid…

an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away

UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手": - SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse. - The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF. - The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report $HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.

Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding. 3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity. People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years. And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids. You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI? …

TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists? Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography… It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day. If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

I'm bearish on humans. Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production. No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals. And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.

Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets: Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models. 1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B 2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B 3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B 4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B 5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above. Some notes: - "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed". Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenA…

So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of p…

Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.

Lot of misinformation recently about $META. Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED” To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex: As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.

$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.

Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many …

I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment: “Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”. However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments. - calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda got reminded of Niantic that has a huge dataset from Pokemon Go) - dedicated National robotics strategy to compete against China’s leadership in this space - ISO + regulation for robotics safety This is all high level: But my prioritize thought process is how do we support and scale a Made in USA supply chain for robotics/humanoids? I’ve been hammering home rare …

@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr

Wells Fargo: $META intent to sell excess compute is a positive signal around underlying demand and unit economics of AI. “Despite this shift, we don’t expect a pullback in Meta’s capex or that overall compute needs are lower” Regarding Neoclouds: WF thinks it validated the massive AI infra opportunity as well as acquisition opportunities. Despite any potential competition for Neoclouds. I’m inclined to agree with Wells Fargo here and say markets completely misunderstood Meta’s excess compute comment.

I feel like Trump is probably going to like this idea: OpenAI discussed giving the US gov a 5% stake in its company per FT. If this turns into an $INTC type situation, would be interesting if the US government becomes a soft backstop for their $1T+ in future capex/obligations. https://t.co/KQZUyd950N

There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting …

Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco.

Finally, $META to build a Cloud Business to sell excess AI compute per Bloomberg. Thought Meta should go up against GCP, Azure, and AWS eventually to increase revenue streams. Meta up 6.65% premarket. https://t.co/UUolnwtYJY

Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization. Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI. Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual. Figure is like ChatGPT With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind. But ends up top 2 leaders anyway. Boston Dynamics is Gemini Kinda started t…

This market feels like an ADHD goldfish with a 5 second attention span, trading popular themes. It's like markets only care about physical AI and energy right now? And sold off memory and photonics that are bottlenecked past 2028?