Serenity

Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over” “It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit. Always an exciting time with markets. https://t.co/S3UisD75Kc

Basically: > major Chinese lidar player might be banned in West. > $OUST, $AEVA, and others benefit by filling in the vacuum > optical players players that power western lidar players like Aeva also benefit from increased revenue Not sure if this news really matters given everything is crashing though.

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors. For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out. Since there were warnings that: Sensors could be disabled or exploited remotely, given Hesai firmware update disabled lidar units on February 29 (as evidence). By second order effect, this is also bullish for upstream laser suppliers too like $LITE and $SIVE that are used in western lidar players.

@stocks4545 This is not the first time Bloomberg crashed the markets https://t.co/C2pDgEAqOV

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing: Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW, Google, $ORCL, and others." Just dropped that in with the Meta Muse announcement, and evenn threw in the "expensive" framing with DCs to signal capex. But little late given we're likely seeing a lot of margin liquidation cascades and heavy losses from media framing earlier.

@EidolonResearch Europe's too busy figuring out how to regulate air conditioners. I don't think people considered them in the US/China humanoid race.

Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.

Yes? If it weren't, it wouldn't be a national security threat. Cybersecurity Committee Dpt of. Homeland Security: "China's speed of advancement in humanoid robots is alarming, and the US government should formulate coordinated policies and strategies to counter Chinese firms' dominance". Singling out Unitree Robotics.

How is the US so far behind? Xinhua: China's output of humanoids are expected to hit 100,000+ this year. Even Morgan Stanley originally projected 14,000 for 2026... Really need Elon's $TSLA, $CCXI (Agility), Apptronik, and Figure to catchup. And for more US Gov. subsidies to pour into upstream supply chains + rare earths. Cause this disparity between US vs. China mass production is getting ridiculous... But it almost feels like the start of Russia/US Space race Sputnik Moment for robotics?

Imagine every single time you post. You have a TA bro posting a chart about: - b-but my $IREN ABC trend says it's going to $125 through the $6B ATM. - or if something drops, someone quote posts you saying "Should have listened to my $40 paywalled XYZ charts" Or if I post a new name they draw random swiggly lines any direction to convince people to sell, then try to sell a course on top of that that. They end up wrong, but just silently ignores that fact when they draw a new swiggly line the next day to sell if they're right.

@mao_ge_ge They could just trade on their own swiggly lines and make 10,000,000% returns if it were accurate.

This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND. -> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations. Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their…

@WLinvestment This might be news to you, but swiggly lines on a chart is not fundamentals. And has nothing to do with operating income growth that Samsung/Sk Hynix make https://t.co/lkXDuD9Xfg

Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ

Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble. They’re being wiped out. The short guys. I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”. https://t.co/6RW2KuzDoW

Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200. Reddit was doing: - $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins - $204M GAAP net income - 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth. - Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after earnings. But in hindsight, given the increase hyperscaler capex, the drop felt more like it's more relative opportunity cost more than fundamentals? Since a lot of inflow poured into $MU / Sk Hynix that are bottlenecked into 2029. Or with laser bottlenecks like $LITE that last into 2029 as well. Same thing happens in reverse after selloffs ig, even…

It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor…

$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu

I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute. As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays. But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run. https://t.co/vghsG5H2w5

Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us

Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names. Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”. Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names: Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”. https://t.co/lWDCl0Sxbe

@haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs. Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case. https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples. "X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x" I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players. But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics …

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO. -> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO. 4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO -> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier. -> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer) -> -> GUC rack level design in with Ay…

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as expected. Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages. My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand. We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. Covariant 10. Skild AI As the National Champions of the United States robotics program. "The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles. While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today." Then it frames: 1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-co…