Peter Schiff

Treasury bond yields have already resumed their rise. Treasury is going to need a much bigger boat to stop this train. That means not only a much larger buyback than what has already been announced, but the Fed will have to join the party with an official QE program. Got gold? Following this post, and after I made the same prediction on my podcast last night, the Treasury Secretary told CNBC that they're already expanding the $4 billion per buyback limit.

Bitcoin's rally above $72K is a fakeout, not a breakout. The Treasury buyback announcement caught markets by surprise. Bitcoin investors have long believed a return to easy money would be the catalyst for gold and Bitcoin to soar. They are only half right. Sell Bitcoin, buy gold.

The U.S. national debt is over $40 trillion, with $11.58 trillion added on Trump's watch, the most of any president. Obama is in second place with $9.32 trillion, but Trump has almost 2.5 years left to add to his lead. Biden still holds the single-term record with $8.47 trillion.

@grok @SoaringEagle555 Actually it's very far off. Not so intellegent after all.

@SoaringEagle555 @grok No fair cheating

I'll be doing another podcast late tonight from my boat discussing today's Treasury announcement and the market's reaction. See if you can guess from this drone video where I was when I did the last one. https://t.co/DZiZ2eqgCF

@DawsonTu3 We don't sell our own gold. We help our customers buy gold from wholesalers.

Today the Trump administration should have dashed any remaining hopes that Warsh will achieve his goal of 2% inflation. Gold's rise of more than $170 so far today, trading above $4,500, confirms that higher inflation is not only here to stay, but that it's headed much higher.

@DougKass @CNBC You are correct. CNBC sold out its audience to advertisers years ago.

@DougKass @TheStreetPro Yes, but this is just the start. Since it's too small to work the Fed will ultimately join in with QE. So the money printing is coming. Gold is already reacting to that inevitability.

Treasury's policy choice of trading higher inflation to slow the rise of long-term interest rates has not only pushed up precious metals, but Bitcoin too. The big difference is that gold and silver will not only hold today's gains, but add to them. In contrast, Bitcoin is a sell.

@GuyAdami Not yet, but it's clearly coming. Treasury can't do this alone.

On our national debt, the average coupon on maturities beyond ten years is 3.44%. That's way below current long-term rates. Buying that debt back now is like a homeowner refinancing a 3.44% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage into a 4% one-year ARM. Who would be dumb enough to do that?

Bond yields may be down today, but oil is up 1.5%, above $86. That's because Treasury traded lower yields for a weaker dollar, which pushes up oil and other commodity prices. That means more economic pressure on the Fed to hike rates, but more political pressure to cut them.

Markets like inflation, but the general public won't. The Dow is up 330 points, about 0.6%. But gold is up $160, which is 3.7%. So nominal asset prices rise, but real values fall. Consumer prices will rise too, offsetting the benefits of higher asset prices for most Americans.

In a rising interest rate environment the smart move is to issue long-term debt, locking in lower rates. But Treasury can't do that, as increased issuance of longer-maturity debt would crash the economy now. So instead they'll crash the economy later when short-term debt matures.

As the Treasury issues short-term debt to buy back previously issued long-term debt, its interest expense goes up, as the coupons on the debt it buys back are lower than the rates it pays on the money it borrows. The national debt rises faster while the average maturity falls.

Treasury just announced that it will buy more long-term Treasuries private investors no longer want to hold to try to keep yields from rising. The money to pay for it will ultimately be created by the Fed, sending inflation soaring. That's why gold is already up $125 on the news! Initially Treasury will buy back long-term debt by issuing more short-term debt, making it harder for the Fed to raise rates, as it will push up federal interest expense and annual budget deficits. In fact, it will increase pressure for rate cuts and QE despite rising inflation.

@natbrunell @phongle @Strategy This is complete bullshit. Selling common stock at a discount is absolutely dilutive, whether the cash is used to pay dividends, buy Bitcoin, or buy back STRC. You don't have to believe me. Just look at Strategy's own website. The Bitcoin yield this quarter is negative 7.3%.

@taoge700529 @ChefMMiami @SenWarren Actually Jews had to overcome a lot of discrimination to succeed. Your reply is an example of the adversity they had to overcome. The Jews didn't make excuses, the way you just did.

@WallStreetMav That's now. Wait until both the debt and interest rates go way up.

Today some investors are likely rotating a bit from equities to bonds. This trade is bound to pick up as bond prices continue to fall and yields rise. I don't think yields will rise high enough to make bonds a good investment, but in the short run they may lose less than stocks.

Traders selling gold today still don't understand what's happening. Rising bond yields won't compete with gold, they'll drive more money into gold. As inflation causes bonds to lose value, investors seeking to avoid losses will sell and buy gold as an alternative store of value.

@DA_Stockman Yes, at the cost of soaring debts those same taxpayers are on the hook to repay.

JGBs are tanking again. The yield on the 10-year is up to 2.95%, a twenty-year high, and the 30-year is at 4.13%, an all-time record high. This rise has caused gold to reverse earlier gains, but what's happening with JGBs and Treasuries is actually extremely bullish for gold.

Gold and silver keep moving up. Gold is now above $4,430 and silver is above $66.25. The $GDX is up 30% in the last month. There's lots of bubbles out there, but one asset class that's not even close to a bubble is precious metals mining stocks. It's nowhere near too late to buy.

The yield on the 30-year JGB is above 4% for the first time ever. With Japan's policy rate at just 1%, oil rising and the yen falling, JGBs could be ready to crash. That may force the Fed into vastly expanding QE to keep Japan from dumping Treasuries.

I'm not sure why Bitcoin didn't sell off today, but the rally gives HODLers another opportunity to sell. Any ideas what's propping it up? Remember, $65K is resistance. There isn't much upside above that level, but plenty of downside below.

Gold, silver, oil, precious metals mining stocks, and bond yields all rose today as the S&P 500 fell. The inflation trade is on and Fed credibility is off. Get used to this combination.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury is above 5.3% for the first time since April 2007. At the time the U.S. national debt was still under $8.8 trillion. Now it's over $39.9 trillion, over 4.5x as large. Plus, in 2007 bond yields were still trending down. Now they are trending up.