Peter Schiff

The U.S. goods trade deficit swelled 18% in July to $118.8 billion, the largest since tariff front-running in March 2025, as imports jumped 3.7% and exports fell 2.9%. Excluding tariff-distorted months, it's the biggest since COVID reopening demand boosted imports in March 2022.

Rising bond yields are the market's way of telling the U.S. government it has a debt problem that needs to be solved before a crisis hits. Just as pain lets you know there is a medical problem that needs attention, if you simply numb the pain so you don't have to feel it, the underlying condition gets worse. If it gets bad enough, it can be fatal. Numbing the pain is precisely what the Trump administration is trying to do now with Operation Twist. As a result, the eventual sovereign debt crisis may be fatal for the dollar and the U.S. economy.

In Warsh’s first two months as Fed chair, M2 has grown about 0.9%, an annualized pace of nearly 6%. Properly defined, inflation is the expansion of the money supply; higher prices are the consequence. A 6% monetary inflation rate is hardly consistent with the Fed's 2% CPI target.

Because Trump decided to hit Americans with 50% tariffs on certain goods they buy from Canada, Carney retaliated by hitting Canadians with tariffs of 50, 25, and 15 percent on roughly 700 U.S. products. This may be good politics for Carney, but it's bad economics for Canada.

$NEM, the world's largest gold mining company, hit a new record high today, despite the gold price needing to rise another 20% to match its record high. This shows investors are finally pricing in sustained higher gold prices and a lasting increase in miners' future earnings.

Bessent said the reason Trump is only threatening secondary economic sanctions and not actually imposing them now is that he does not want to "blow up the global financial system." Since the U.S. is the primary beneficiary of that system, no one will take this threat seriously.

The Trump administration's further weaponization of the U.S. dollar to advance its Iran policy will only hasten the speed with which the world de-dollarizes. This transition couldn't happen at a worse time, as the last thing we need now is more Treasuries to buy back or monetize.

Because Trump failed to achieve his objective in Iran using military force, he has pivoted to using economic sanctions instead. However, Operation Economic Outcast will not only fail, but the economic noose that actually tightens may end up being the one wrapped around our neck.

Trump stated he may use military intervention if Treasury's attempt to use bond buybacks fails to lower long-term yields. Does this mean the U.S. will threaten to bomb other countries unless their governments buy long-term Treasuries? I doubt extortion will prove to be viable.

Even with the huge Bitcoin rally and STRC buybacks, STRC is barely trading above $95. That means without raising the dividend again Saylor can't issue any more to fund future Bitcoin buys. In fact, he'll likely keep destroying Bitcoin per common share to buy back more preferreds.

Trump is hitting Americans hard with 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, trucks, auto parts and steel. Americans purchase a lot of those goods from Canada, and those goods will now be vastly more expensive for Americans to buy, worsening the government-created cost of living crisis.

Bessent’s plan to use the TGA to fund Treasury buybacks makes possible exactly what I warned would happen. This reckless plan will substantially shorten the average maturity of the national debt, increasing our exposure to rising short-term rates and making it even harder for the Fed to hike rates without exploding federal interest expense and budget deficits. It’s a recipe for massive QE and runaway inflation. Got gold?

Bitcoin pumpers are trying to hitch Bitcoin to the AI wagon, hoping investors will see it as part of the AI trade. They have it backwards. AI isn’t bullish for Bitcoin; it’s a threat to it. AI competes with Bitcoin for speculative capital, electricity, and data-center infrastructure. Plus, as AI becomes more powerful, it could discover vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s code, cryptography, wallets, or network that humans have missed. Bitcoin’s security and protocol-enforced scarcity ultimately depend on software remaining secure.

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Set a reminder for my upcoming Space! https://t.co/glqn26jk6e having trouble starting the spaces

If you think gold prices and Treasury yields are rising fast now, wait until the dollar starts to drop sharply against its major fiat currency counterparts. Dollar weakness is the missing piece that will complete the puzzle necessary for a full-blown U.S. sovereign debt crisis.

Once again gold and Treasury yields are rising together. This is proof that investors don't expect a hawkish Fed to successfully lower inflation, but a dovish Fed to allow inflation to run away. As a result investors and foreign governments are selling Treasuries and buying gold.

Gold is trading above $4,600. So far, over the first three weeks of August, gold is up 15%. This doesn't happen with a hawkish Fed determined to do whatever it takes to lower inflation. It happens when investors realize the Fed is bluffing and intends to let inflation run away.

It's amazing how ignorant Trump is of basic economics. If the free market set interest rates instead of the Fed, the U.S. would pay much higher rates than it does today. Switzerland has lower interest rates than the U.S. because the Swiss save and their government barely borrows.

Treasury yields aren't back to their highs today despite the Treasury's attempt to lower yields, but because of it. By sounding the alarm, the government has awakened sleeping investors to risk they had previously ignored. Plus, it's smart to sell whatever the government buys.

Gold hitting $4,600, silver near $70, oil over $87, and Bitcoin's earlier spike above $79K show the Fed has lost all credibility on its commitment to returning inflation to 2%. Treasury made it clear the Fed will choose inflation, so investors are choosing their preferred hedge.

This morning Trump proudly announced a deal to lower beef prices by reducing quotas and tariffs on imported beef. But that's also an admission that tariffs increased prices paid by American consumers. If removing tariffs lowers prices, then imposing them must have raised prices.

Inflation-sensitive markets are ripping because the Trump Administration pulled the rug out from under Warsh. No matter what he says about fighting inflation, investors now realize the Fed won't undermine Treasury by actually doing anything about it. Commodities now, CPI later.

Now that the Trump Administration has panicked by announcing a Treasury bailout, investors who hadn't yet realized there was a problem will get the message and start selling. If Bessent thought we had a bond market problem before, sounding the alarm made the problem much worse.

A @CNBC guest just dismissed the doubling of the national debt in ten years because household net worth more than doubled over that time. But the debt is a permanent obligation that must be serviced and repaid. Net worth, besides being overly concentrated, is transitory as it can evaporate if rising interest rates crash over-valued stock and real estate prices.

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The Treasury Just Admitted It... The Bond Market Is Broken https://t.co/gDZw0iJRbE

Trump's unprecedented economic sanctions on Iran not only won't work, but they'll backfire. Other nations will violate the restrictions and Trump won't be able to follow through with his retaliatory sanctions. Plus, the dollar will weaken and food and energy prices will rise.

Smart investors are finally figuring it out. They bought this morning's selloff in gold despite the rise in bond yields, as it’s becoming more obvious that a bear market in bonds fuels a bull market in gold. The best way to avoid losing money in Treasuries is to buy gold instead.

The Treasury Just Admitted It... The Bond Market Is Broken New Episode. https://t.co/k5kF6FUwD9