Nouriel Roubini

See below the full text of my new @ProSyn Part 1/2 https://t.co/kM46XIElLb America’s Economic Tailwinds Will Override Trump and His Tariffs By @Nouriel Roubini NEW YORK – Last December, I argued that while some of US President Donald Trump’s policies would be stagflationary (reducing growth and raising inflation), such effects would ultimately be mitigated by four factors: market discipline, an independent US Federal Reserve, the president’s own advisers, and the Republicans’ thin majorities in Congress. The script has played out as predicted. The reaction from stock, bond, credit, and currency markets forced Trump not only to back down fro…

My new @prosyn oped: America’s Economic Tailwinds Will Override Trump and His Tariffs by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/jIhsuVG69s

Video of my Bloomberg interview today at the market close. Roubini Weighs In on Tariffs, US Dollar and Global Relations https://t.co/1JH5CgRQCl https://t.co/tiItz0Km8I

Trump Is Facing Six Wars, and He’s Losing All of Them https://t.co/kBDpTZJ4Jo https://t.co/xgilP07qIj

As reported by Bloomberg, in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi, Trump is “panicking” and “chickening out”… Trump Floats Cutting China Tariffs ‘Substantially’ in Trade Deal https://t.co/yMdkgesevX https://t.co/ewCgpZSf9V

Traders Trump Trump! Or the Bond Vigilantes Redux! In the game of chicken between Powell, Xi and the markets now Trump has blinked with all of them . Stock futures are rallying as he has now backed down on threatening to fire Powell; he has blinked with China begging Xi to start negotiations to de-escalate the destructive trade war; also Elon is abandoning dodgy dumb DOGE to take care of floundering Tesla. And investors forced Trump to back down via market discipline . As I presciently wrote in December (see link below), market discipline, Fed independence/discipline, good advisors (Bessent , Miran) and a thin majority in Congress would be …

My former colleague and co-author @SteveMiran is getting a lot of attention - and criticism as in a WSJ oped today - for a paper he wrote last November where he discussed - among many other topics - a possible tax on US capital inflows into US Treasuries as a way to possibly weaken the US dollar, effectively capital controls on inflows. I worked as an advisor at Hudson Bay Capital (HBC) with Steve when he was there. I read the piece, and though I disagreed with a lot of it, I gave him many comments and feedback that made it better. The piece was written for HBC portfolio managers and clients and as such was an attempt to help investors unde…

Powell cannot change monetary policy on his own even if he wanted to: a majority of the FOMC gotta vote for it and the FOMC will not cut rates as inflation will start going higher as tariffs kick in. Even if Trump were to fire Powell he would not be able bend the FOMC . Trump is shooting himself in the foot with this talk of firing Powell: lower stocks , higher bond yields, higher credit spreads and a weaker dollar. A repeated own goal. Also Powell/Fed not blinking is good for Trump: if Fed were to blink and cut short policy rates the bond yields would go much higher and equities lower as Fed would be behind the curve in anchoring inflation …

Follow live the video streaming of my speech on the global economy that is starting in a few minutes in Turkey. At 2.10pm local time or 7.10am ET. Click on link below https://t.co/tUaGU9hhrx

Here is the link to my podcast interview on Bloomberg’s Trumponomics. “On this week’s episode of Trumponomics, we speak with economist Nouriel Roubini about the all-out trade war US President Donald Trump has kicked off with China, and why it’s a conflict Chinese leader Xi Jinping might think he can weather—and even win”. https://t.co/48uORE9Rfy https://t.co/sG5TergSQZ

Moreover, we are moving from an era of logarithmic tech innovations (initial growth spurt that fizzles out over time) to an era of exponential growth where growth accelerates over time for decades to come. In a world of exponential growth first mover advantages (US ahead) compound over time and imply that second movers (China) never fully catch up to the first mover US even if China will do quite well too.

Link to the video of my new Bloomberg TV interview. “Tariffs War: Roubini Says China Has Lots of Options to Counter Trump” https://t.co/BJeNvyAH9n

Expensive IPhones 📱 and other high end consumer electronics purchased mostly by the well-off/affluent are exempted; but the 80% of good Chinese cheap consumer goods purchased by his left-behind blue collar base at Dollar Stores, Walmart, Costco, and other low price retailers are slapped with a 145% tariff. Most of them are low-end low value-added labor intensive good quality cheap Chinese products that we never ever manufactured in the US in the first place or that we stopped producing decades ago as it is not our comparative advantage to produce low end cheap goods! So he says that he wants to reshore tech rather than cheap toys . But his e…

And the only ones willing to work in our factories get deported! https://t.co/NWkjNXUaSN

Am at a geopol confab in Delphi Greece 🇬🇷 where Pythia - the Oracle of Delphi in the basement of the great temple 🏛️- was always consulted by Athens, Sparta and other Greek cities before taking a major policy action or starting a war. If Trump had consulted her she would have warned him to take it more slowly and not to confront powerful China like a bully lest yo end up in the current Thucydides Trap where the trade war with China may become a full scale economic war with a unmanaged , destructive and disorderly decoupling and where a Cold War that is becoming colder may even end up in a hot war on Taiwan! If current tariffs on China re…

Europe is doing some good work with such startups but USA and China are well ahead of Europe in humanoid robots development at a much vaster scale!

In this big time pissing contest with Xi, it is Trump who needs a big raincoat and umbrella! Indeed, as the NYT reporting from China correctly shows I have been right all along in arguing that Xi can endure much more pain and suffering than Trump does as Chinese history and Xi pronouncements and views are that suffering makes you stronger: Xi told his youth to “eat bitterness”! https://t.co/YdXbNX6ced

Game of Chicken (as I put it) or Liar’s Poker? @izakaminska thoughtfully argues for the latter. But in a game of economic MAD (or MAED), the game of chicken metaphor where one side pretends to be crazy (Art of the Deal Trump style) and the other refuses to blink (Xi who isn’t facing elections and has many policy option to wait out the “crazy”) is a better metaphor than Liar’s Poker. When you have true MAD as in a game of chicken on trade/economic wars the stakes are much higher than in a poker game, even a high stakes one. Also, as i argued this is a 3-ways game of chicken including Powell on top of Trump and Xi. Since, as I expected, Powell …

The Art of the Deal: begging China to beg for a phone call ! Ie how to blink in a game of chicken you are losing by begging the other side to beg you for a call! That is what happens when you lost your leverage while stocks, bonds, credit and dollar values are all free falling and you are panicking! So the party of PANICANs has its HQ in the White House 😱

@LHSummers is right with two caveats. First, as he admitted you don’t want to depend on China for some high tech products that have national security importance: thus the need for the “narrow yard and high fences” for such goods as the Sullivan/Biden policy argued for. Second, comparative advantage is dynamic rather than static: China subsidized for decades the cost of capital, labor, land, energy and water - on top of many other state capitalist policies - to achieve a 30% and still rising share of global manufacturing. That created serious jobs and employment issues in both advanced economies and emerging markets. And that loss of dynamic c…

Indeed Mickey Mouse could be US President and the economy will keep on growing fast as: Tech Trumps Tariffs! Tech Trumps Trump Too! https://t.co/KFuikSlfaU https://t.co/VZQ9yRIKYg

With a little tiny nudge from the bear stock markets, spiking bond yields and credit spreads (especially HY), the start of a free falling dollar and the panicky meltdown in US and global markets… but of course it was their great Genius plan all along… https://t.co/S2jO7rKCmK

“It was our very genial plan all along to blink!” Wednesday mid-day backpedaling followed by quarterbacking after the biggest policy self goal ever! Are the biggest sycophants on their knees in the government or the fellow travelers with buyers remorse in the private sector? https://t.co/gSaxHolosI

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Why Dr Doom is becoming “Dr Boom”? Because “Tech Trumps Tariffs” both in the short run and the medium term. Mickey Mouse could be US Prez rather than Trump or Bernie or Kamala and we will still get US potential growth at 4% by 2030 regardless of because US dominates the key 12 technologies/industries of the future and China is only a close second (and Europe is nowhere to be found)! Tech innovations will increase US potential growth by 200bps from 2% to 4% by 2030. Even relatively high permanent tariffs (say 15% weighted average for US after negotiations) would reduce potential growth only and at most by 50 bps. So tech is a 4X boost to growt…

MASA: Make America Scammy Again! High suspicion of insider trading ahead of the Trump announcement of the 90 day tariff pause and Trump tweet to buy. Will the SEC look into this stinking set of insider trades or is the new SEC MAGA-fied and ignore this potential big insider scam? Who knew before the announcement and did such dirty inside job?

Big time insider trading scam!

@annmarie you were right and the Prez in his typical bully style answered your very smart question by hurling cheap insults on you! Shame on him and kudos for your guts! ! Not only there was a big huge Trump put but its strike price was much higher than the Powell and Xi puts! So Trump blinked and the Trump put was exercised when equities went into bear market, bond yields rose, credit spreads widened and dollar started to fall disorderly! Trump totally blinked in this game of chicken with markets, Powell, Xi and his main other trade partners! Too painful for him to admit it!

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Indeed! Agreed! https://t.co/ba1RKYByiv