Nouriel Roubini

My new oped: Where Will the Global Bond Rout Hit Growth and Equities? by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/nVPajXdlP2 In the US, the recent rise in bond yields is largely driven by structural factors like the end of the post-2008 Great Stagnation, higher potential growth from tech-industry investments, and greater private-sector demand for credit. Higher yields are more worrisome for advanced economies that are stagnating and innovating less.

My new oped Oil Shocks Are No Longer So Shocking by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/4KgAS2QUcK

My new paper with @SteveMiran

News from Shitcoins Land : Bitcoin’s price is now lower than its 2021 fall peak. So in the last five years the return to Bitcoin has been negative. And 90% of Bitcoin holders bought at a price higher than the current level. So all these shitcoiner suckers have lost their shirt . And losses are much higher in the other top 10 crypto-craps, let alone in 100s of lesser shitcoins that are down down 95% from their peak or worth 0! And even among meme-coins, Fart Coin - down 95% from peak - has done better than crappy Trump coin and Melania coin that have fallen even more. So Trump got to shaft his MAGA meme-loving base too! 🤑🤮💩💩💩🤑🤮

Worth reading! https://t.co/ZdSOTs3U7J

Four Scenarios for the Iran War by Nouriel Roubini After failing to clinch a decisive victory against Iran, US President Donald Trump is now facing deteriorating macroeconomic conditions ahead of November's midterm elections. With his options limited, he has been left to choose between wishful thinking and a high-risk re-escalation of hostilities. @ProSyn https://t.co/uyJsfbb0jc

Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E. They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions. https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7

My new op-ed on the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

My new op-ed: Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/ecLToTAC4z For years, Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, has been staking out policy positions that would almost certainly backfire if put into practice. Fortunately, market conditions and the rest of the central bank's board will still have a say in monetary policymaking.

Here is below the full text of my op-ed “Iran Is Headed Towards Regime Collapse” that I wrote last June after the 12 Days war with Iran: https://t.co/h82NaApkqR Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse. Radical forces in the Middle East, many funded by and acting as proxies of Iran, have destabilized the region for decades. Regime collapse in Iran following the US bombardment of the country’s nuclear facilities, it must now be hoped, will benefit the entire region. NEW YORK – Last November, I predicted that Israel was likely to attack Iran’s nuclear and other military facilities, even go so far as to eliminate the “regime’s top military and po…

This is the oped I wrote in November 2024 before the US elections . Full text in the link below https://t.co/9ttItyqok1 ISRAEL AND IRAN ARE LIKELY TO ESCALATE Regardless of whether one agrees with Israeli political and military leaders’ assessment of the threat posed by Iran, a further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is now highly likely. Policymakers and financial risk managers may be hoping for the best, but they should be preparing for the worst.

Very well reasoned analysis

Tech Trumps Trump’s Temper Tantrums Too! I was on Bloomberg TV this morning. Link below to my interview. Main highlights are: - US potential growth at 4% by 2030 given a dozen technologies of the future where US and China lead and all other are behind - Warsh in wrong in claiming that lower inflation from AI justifies a lower Fed Funds rate as higher growth leads to higher real short and long rates - Tech Trumps Tariffs - Tech Trumps Trump’s Temper Tantrums Too as tech is first order and Stagflationary policies are second order and constrained by tight market discipline and bond/markets vigilantes - Growth at 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050 but a…

@Isabel_Schnabel : Real thoughtful lecture

First, you lose in a matter of weeks 50%% to 99% - depending on which shitcoin you were duped to invest in - and then they don’t even allow you to withdraw the remaining crumbs of your investments. Standard operating procedure in crypto shitcoin land. Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills halts client withdrawals Move comes during period of sustained volatility in digital asset markets https://t.co/DqThoPqvBd via @ft

@LowBeta : Regular banks are chartered, regulated , supervised with capital buffers and access to deposit insurance (de facto above any de jure FDIC limit), proper rigorous AML/KYC have access to lender of last resort support of Fed and, if systemically important , even more layers of backstop of every piece of their balance sheet on the asset and Lia city side (see GFC experience) . While stablecoins of “Genius” act have none of that and are a worse repeat of 19th century free banking. And we do all remember how that free banking episode ended. Run, total financial crash, financial crisis and a severe recession. Caveat Emptor. History doesn’…

Is Kevin Warsh argument that AI justifies a lower equilibrium Fed Funds rate correct? Not necessarily. Here is why… The equilibrium/neutral nominal Fed Funds rate - or r-star - is the sum of the equilibrium/neutral real r-star and the equilibrium/target expected inflation rate. A positive aggregate supply shock - like the AI/tech revolution - has two opposite effects on the nominal r-star : it increases it as real potential GDP growth is higher and there is a positive correlation between real potential growth and real equilibrium rates; and it decreases it as inflation and its expectations are sharply reduced. Thus, the net impact on the nom…

@mdudas : “I would estimate the rate of shady / sketchy / unethical people in crypto is at least 5x that in traditional tech, where i worked for decades”

Trump coin (-95%) and Melania coin (-99%) do even worse than Fartcoin and Dogecoin at the very bottom of chart. How to shaft your voters and supporters who bought these crappy coins at the peak. 🤮🤑💩💩 O Tempora, O Mores!

The Crypto Apocalypse Out of 20k ICOs: 80% of them (16k) were a total criminal scam in the first place - steal the money and run - based on results of an academic research paper. Another 18% of them (3.6k) went to zero and collapsed . Of remaining 2% (400) that survived those below the top 10 have lost on average over 90% of their value since their peak . Of the top 10 : Bitcoin is down 45% from peak, Ethereum is down 55% from peak, XRP is down 60%, Solana and Dogecoin are down 65%, Cardano is down 75%. “Stablecoins” like Tether are now breaking the buck and trade below par. While dozen of “stablecoins” went totally bust in last decade. M…

Speaking - as I warned in my recent column - that unstable “stablecoins” backed by risky assets can break the buck and lead to a disorderly financial panic. https://t.co/xyQXgH9h2L

Just 3 days into me writing my Crypto Apocalypse oped Bitcoin is now down 45% from its peak rather than the 35% I quoted in my column. Real hard to catch a falling knife without a bloodbath … Caveat Emptor for all the clueless retail shitcoiners suckers and haters I warned but who pompously claimed here that my column was the bottom signal! 🤮🤑💩💩💩🤮🤑

True decentralized finance will never reach scale. No serious government – not even the Trump administration – will ever allow full anonymity of monetary and financial transactions, because that would be a boon for criminals, terrorists, rogue states, non-state actors, human traffickers, and assorted crooks and tax dodgers. Moreover, because digital wallets and regulated exchanges must be subjected to standard anti-money laundering and know-your-customer (AML/KYC) rules, it is not even clear that transaction costs through permissioned and private “blockchains” are any lower – especially now that traditional financial ledgers have improved wi…

The Coming Crypto Apocalypse by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/beoEXm4Bd0

Speaking at the excellent The Family Office event in Shura Island KSA

The Deja-Vu FAFO-TALO-TACO cycle galore! This time around it took less than a week for the FAFO-TALO-TACO cycle to come to a full circle. A week ago the Greenlanders, Danish and Europeans pushed back against Trump’s increasing bellicose attempts to take over Greenland (they went into FAFO or F- Around & Find Out mode). Then Trump snapped to the European FAFO with his usual TALO (Trump Always Lashes Out) and threatened to take over Greenland by force and to impose additional tariffs on the European countries supportive of Denmark/Greenland. But on Tuesday - as US markets were closed on Monday - market discipline snapped with a vengeance: eq…

@JohnCassidy : Bond vigilantes would box in Trump even more so if he controlled the Fed with a super dovish Chair as the Fed controls the short end but not the long end of the yield curve. Bond vigilantes control the latter regardless of who runs the Fed!

Market Discipline & Tech Trump Trump’s Temper Tantrums Too! On April 2nd 2025 I argued that market discipline would force Trump to chicken out - go from TALO to TACO - and back down from very high tariffs (announced 30% effective rate). Indeed, two weeks later S&P was down 15%, NASDAQ down 20%, bond yields went up 80bps, high yield spread up 150bps and the $ started to free fall. Then the Don blinked/chicken out and today average tariffs are 14% and falling further. Now he tried to play hardball on Greenland and bond yields are starting to rise (when the average American is already shafted by high mortgage rates), the dollar is staring to fal…

I wrote this column last June: “Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse” by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/dlZWnB97oG Hopefully I will be right!

Here is a link to my new paper published recently on the coming AI-driven secular boom, why Tech Trumps Tariffs, why American Exceptionalism is not over and thus the stock market is not in an AI bubble, and why the Exorbitant Privilege of the US Dollar isn’t over and thus US dollar weakness is temporary. https://t.co/FoDrz2twxi