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THE LIBRARY

Nouriel Roubini

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SubstackEssay

Trump’s Latest Gift to Putin

Unable to win his foolish war against Iran, Donald Trump blames its consequences on Ukraine and uses the lie to justify ending sanctions against Russia, thereby extending that war as well. His diesel deal with the Kremlin is less about lowering gas prices for Americans and more about submitting to Vladimir Putin. TORONTO—Earlier this year, when I first described the guiding principle of Donald Trump’s foreign policy as superpower suicide, it was already obvious that the US President’s war of whimsy against Iran was a strategic catastrophe. Five months on, this failure is all the more glaring. Worse, it has provided Trump with another pretext…

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Trump’s Misguided War Against Effective Altruism

The US Department of “War” has recently begun attacking effective altruism, a movement that aims to save lives, reduce suffering, and prevent future catastrophes. Why would the Trump administration, which with great fanfare created a Department of Government Efficiency, now oppose being effective? MELBOURNE—“Americanism, not effective altruism.” That’s a new slogan launched on X by the US Department of “War,” the words running across an image of President Donald Trump saluting. Above the image, the post reads: “The United States will continue to be AI DOMINANT!” I initially thought it must be satire. Doesn’t the Defense Department have more…

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Fukuyama, Thiel, and the Revenge of the Last Man

In his new memoir, Francis Fukuyama attempts to redeem his thesis about the end of history. But Peter Thiel’s ongoing quest to escape government oversight and wrest control of the future from democratic majorities makes a mockery of his argument all over again. NEW YORK—In the Realm of the Last Man, the title of Stanford University political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s new memoir, is an unmistakable reference to his 1992 bestseller The End of History and the Last Man. The reason he chose it, Fukuyama explained, was that people had ignored his famous book’s warning that “democracy could break down in the future because of some of the intrins…

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Mélenchon Is Right About France’s Debt

When, in the name of moderation, centrists brand every sensible alternative to severe austerity as “nonsense,” they leave voters only one electable rebellion on offer, and the far right is happy to supply it. That is what is happening in France today. ATHENS—The sorry state of France’s public schools, which sparked angry demonstrations across the country, was a symptom of chronic austerity. But that did not stop the sirens of deeper austerity from rehearsing their song. Emmanuel Moulin, the governor of France’s central bank, is calling for large budget cuts to avert the “risk of being gradually strangled by rising interest rates.” If that ha…

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With AI, Sharing Is Caring

Although the public’s distrust of Big Tech is understandable, given past experience, that is not a reason to starve AI models of the information and data they will need to be useful. If serving the public interest is the goal, everyone relying on the technology’s output has a duty to provide high-quality input. NEW YORK—Who wants ignorant AI? Wrong AI? Stupid AI? If privacy and copyright advocates, regulators, and crusaders against the technology succeed in cutting off or poisoning AI’s sources of reliable data and authoritative information, won’t bad AI be the result? My question is an admitted provocation, so we may consider what responsi…

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The India-Pakistan Cold War

The current stalemate between India and Pakistan should be viewed not as a pause between rounds of negotiation, but rather as part of a deliberate Indian strategy of disengagement. India will return to the negotiating table only after Pakistan dismantles, comprehensively and verifiably, its state-supported terrorist networks. NEW DELHI—For decades, South Asia was locked in a perpetual cycle of conflict management: brief military clashes between India and Pakistan would be followed by de-escalation and the resumption of formal peace talks, which eventually gave way to another bout of conflict. But this pattern has now been broken. No high-lev…

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Is Russia’s Placement on the Security Council Legal?

When Russia replaced the Soviet Union as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in 1991, it did not even attempt to follow the process outlined in the UN Charter. Now that Russia’s usurpation of the USSR’s seat has enabled it to wage a war of aggression, the dubious legal status of its position must be revisited. KYIV—“We the peoples of the United Nations determined to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” So begins the UN Charter. Yet Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is well into its fourth year, confirming just how far the UN has strayed from its foundational promise. The problem is not simply …

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Why Is the Global Economy So Resilient?

With the global economy having weathered major trade and energy shocks over the past two years, growth should improve in 2027, and inflation should fall. Although various political and policy-driven risks could change the outlook, they remain less likely than the relatively benign baseline scenario. NEW YORK—Despite the rising risks, uncertainties, and large negative supply shocks of the last two years, stock markets and the overall global economy have held up quite well. Following the shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” (April 2) tariffs in 2025 came this year’s Iran War, which caused the largest energy shock since the oil…

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Trump’s Vanity Summit With Xi

While expectations for the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were low, it was disappointing to watch them prioritize pageantry over substance. Trump’s cringe-worthy declarations of heartfelt admiration for Xi reflect his twisted sense that the trappings of power are power itself. NEW HAVEN—Long on ceremony but short on substance, the eagerly anticipated summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a disappointment. Perhaps not a major disappointment, as expectations were generally low, and as some talk is certainly better than no talk. But on the major issues of trade, …

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Edition 2026-10-10, preview.