Mohamed El-Erian

In this Financial Times column, the leaders of Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and Kenya propose forming the "'Partners for Multilateralism' ... to create a flexible, open framework for countries from different regions and political traditions that are willing to work across divides, to build coalitions for reform and to translate shared principles into practical action." Whether you call it P4M or a middle-powers initiative, the purpose is clear: to counter the risk of global fragmentation driven by US-China great power competition. https://t.co/sD6hlB6mgj #economy #markets #globalization @FT

Jets lose in OT.... We were all hoping for a new normal for our beloved Jets, including starting the season 2-0 for the first time since 2015. Instead, we’re right back to the old normal. This time around, we blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter ... and then lost the game in overtime after giving up two sacks and stupid penalties. If we can't have a new normal, can we at least time-warp back to theREALLY old normal?!?!? À la 1969?!?!? 🏈✈️. Please! #Jets #NYJets @nyjets

Despite a calming Fed meeting last week, global markets enter the new week with a rebound in sovereign yields and rising energy pressures. We also have high-stakes diplomacy at the Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of UNGA, alongside an extensive data calendar and the return of Fedspeak. For details, please use one of the two links below to access my weekly look at the global economy and markets: https://t.co/1JDyPBlgzT https://t.co/xVytzLRu0d #economy #markets

This chart on Europe from the Financial Times is a general reminder that, in exhibiting impressive resilience to the energy shock, the global economy has run down its physical inventory. #economy #oil #energy #markets @ft https://t.co/7EYl1wSiwM

Thank you to Richard Quest and Stuart Varney for having me on their shows today. #economy #markets https://t.co/dFBma7M6If

From Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech today, outlining "the initial findings of the independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)." Many will view this as yet another addition to an already long list of institutional missteps by the Powell-led Fed. #economy #federalreserve #markets

While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages. #economy #markets #yields #mortgages @WSJ https://t.co/3TB236Qx1W

Remember Europe's old Core/Periphery framing, complete with the infamous "PIGS" moniker (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)? Well, look how the world has evolved -- not only as illustrated below, but also as Italian sovereign spreads have recently traded inside their French counterparts. #economy #europe #markets

Government bond yields are on the move again: The US 10-year Treasury is back at 5% and the 30-year is above 5.30% (Bloomberg table below.) #bonds #economy #markets #yields https://t.co/9PUG2oN9bo

In the continuation of the masterclass in corporate succession: In a characteristically humble and well-written letter to Berkshire shareholders (below), Warren Buffett reflects on his tenure, passes the Chair role to Howard Buffett, and reaffirms his confidence in Greg Abel. #economy #berkshirehathaway #warrenbuffett @WarrenBuffett

A reminder to watch refined products alongside crude: While crude oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive day, refined products continue to climb, with US diesel hitting a fresh record high of $6.45 (AAA table). Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, has informed European refiners to expect no crude deliveries in October. #economy #markets #oil #diesel

Good morning The signaling accompanying the Bank of Japan's rate hike sent the Yen weaker: In a widely expected move, Japan’s central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level since 1995. Yet, as the signaling regarding future hikes disappointed markets, the Yen depreciated more than 1%, continuing to unwind gains sparked by (actual and anticipated) FX intervention. (CNBC chart below). #economy #markets j #japan #boj #centralbanks

Posted earlier: Depending on where you look, the current U.S. economy can be characterized in one of three ways: 1. An economy in equilibrium, anchored by forces of mean reversion. 2. An increasingly unstable equilibrium, driven by diminishing financial and physical buffers. 3. An economy in multi-year transition, reshaped by technological change and geo-economics. Rather than opting for just one of these, consider the world of the in-between: https://t.co/6PnTWV96mX #economy #markets @nytimes

Thank you, @LesliePicker, for the interesting conversation on @CNBCClosingBell. https://t.co/nheGV1u14Y #economy #markets @CNBC #federalreserve https://t.co/vmjtJK1UFm

Despite widespread analyst commentary today that the Federal Reserve addressed inflation concerns and passed a “credibility test,” longer-term yields have remained relatively range-bound over the last few days. This is not because those factors are unimportant, but because they have not been, and are not, the primary drivers pushing yields higher. #economy #markets @CNBC @cnbcclosingbell #federalreserve

The morning after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, markets raised expectations of further monetary tightening, pricing in three additional hikes by the end of June 2027 (Bloomberg chart below). #economy #markets #federalreserve https://t.co/EMYXh9IieZ

The newly released jobless claims highlight the continued strength of the US labor market: Weekly initial claims came in at 196,000, better than the consensus forecast of 207,000. #economy #markets #jobs

Depending on where you look, the current U.S. economy can be characterized in one of three ways: 1. An economy in equilibrium, anchored by forces of mean reversion. 2. An increasingly unstable equilibrium, driven by diminishing financial and physical buffers. 3. An economy in multi-year transition, reshaped by technological change and geo-economics. Rather than opting for just one of these, consider the world of the in-between: https://t.co/6PnTWV96mX #economy #markets @nytimes

The Bank of England is the exception this time around: In a 6–3 vote by its Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank held interest rates steady at 3.75%. With the Bank of Japan expected to hike tomorrow, and both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank having already raised rates, the BoE is alone among the major central banks in holding off this month. #economy #markets #centralbanks #bankofengland

With market expectations sitting at 92%, the Fed had little choice but to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike, its first since 2023. Holding rates steady against such strong expectations likely would have driven market yields even higher. Perhaps most surprising, however, was the unanimous 12-0 vote. Here is the statement: https://t.co/uc3lrSngxc #economy #markets #federalreserve

Welcome to Fed Decision Day! It is striking to see the market pricing in a 90% (yes 90%) probability of a rate hike today despite mixed economic data, uneven demand-side indicators, a delicate supply-side balance, a relatively dovish tone from several senior FOMC members, and a Chair intent on breaking the "hall of mirrors" phenomenon. It is equally interesting to see how eagerly some market participants await the updated rate "dots," even as momentum builds against the current approach to forward guidance. All this underscores just how difficult it is to evolve a Fed–market paradigm anchored by years of handholding, a constant stream of offi…

On the front page of today’s Wall Street Journal: https://t.co/Dpaqf6eKcL

Good morning. UK inflation climbed to 3.1% in August on higher energy prices, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%. Matching consensus forecasts, the data leaves the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee facing a delicate balance ahead of tomorrow's rate decision: push against against a headline rate back at 3% for the first time since March on worries that it may spill into core, or hold off because core is contained? (Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a hold.) #economy #markets #centralbanks @bankofengland

From the WSJ article, "Hedge Funds Are the Wild Card in the Turbulent Bond Market: A pullback by pension funds in Treasurys has created a void filled by hedge funds; the New York Fed is asking about the potential risks." #economy #markets @WSJ https://t.co/LhrGdv0AqK

From the Financial Times: "Foreign investors are now buying more US stocks than government bonds.... International flows into US stocks reached 2.8 per cent of US GDP on average in the year to June, overtaking Treasuries — at 2 per cent of GDP — for the first time this century outside brief episodes in the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to analysis of US Treasury data by Deutsche Bank." #economy #stocks #bonds #markets @FT

Kevin Hassett, NEC Director, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box about the Federal Reserve: "Non-economic thinking there is a thing of the past." #economy #federalreserve #markets @CNBC @SquawkCNBC

On the markets' Federal Reserve expectations: As the Fed begins its two-day FOMC meeting, culminating tomorrow in an interest rate decision and the release of updated quarterly projections, markets expect that a rate hike (currently priced at a 92% probability) will not be a "one-and-done." Rather, market pricing suggests that it will be part of a tightening cycle, with another hike expected before year-end and at least one more in the first half of 2027. (Bloomberg table below.) #economy #federalreserve #markets

For those who follow economic data around the world: China: Solid export-led manufacturing growth once again contrasts sharply with sluggish domestic demand, including just a 0.4% annual increase in retail sales (Bloomberg table below). Germany: PPI inflation, at 6.8%, was the highest in 3.5 years. UK: The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, while earnings (ex-bonuses) grew 3.9%, led by the public sector (private sector earnings grew 2.9%. #economy #markets #China #Germany #UK

As the US 10-year yield trades above 5% (CNBC chart below), here's the link to my column posted yesterday by The Economist on how to think about this year's surge in borrowing costs. https://t.co/A2qbvplRhG #economy #markets #yields @TheEconomist https://t.co/ACzMdr2ygh

Good morning. To illustrate how uncertain the current juncture is for the global economy and markets, here are four major questions. Each injects volatility into a key global price; together, they fuel systemic uncertainty: Oil: How supply disruptions evolve, alongside China's role as a "swing consumer." Yields: Whether the US Treasury will be tempted into additional market intervention to influence bond yields. The Fed: If it validates this week the market's 90% pricing of a rate hike, does this prove to be a "one and done" or the start of a tightening cycle. AI: How the balance between promise and peril is struck. #economy #markets #yie…