Mohamed El-Erian

This comes from The Economist's article on US-China relations, which it characterizes as having reached a '"strategic stalemate." #economy #markets #china https://t.co/qYUr33KJux

Why the Treasury Yield Surge Shouldn't Be as Big a Surprise as it is: It is striking how many market participants have been surprised by the recent surge in US yields. The fundamental drivers have been evident for some time: Borrowing plans for major issuers, such as the government and large corporates (particularly tech), have been well telegraphed. The Federal Reserve has been signaling strong economic activity. The reasons behind the declining willingness and capacity of some traditional holders/buyers of US bonds have been well covered. The challenging quest to define the endpoint for the US/Israel-Iran conflict has been widely debated. W…

This sharp rise in Treasury yields—including 11 basis points for the benchmark 10-year, as shown in the Bloomberg chart and table below—is being driven primarily by domestic indicators (data confirming accelerating US economic activity), and to a much lesser extent, external factors (higher oil prices). Needless to say, it's pulling yields higher worldwide. #economy #markets #yields

From the @FT: "Surging government bond yields are a “major concern” to countries’ public finances given the mounting share of spending being consumed by debt interest, the OECD said on Wednesday." This warning comes as the OECD raises its inflation forecasts and warns about interest rate pressures. #exonomy #markets @OECD

Many of you have heard me say for a while now that earnings from tech companies in particular have acted as a powerful shield for stock markets, deflecting what has been a notable series of external shocks. This chart from John Authers illustrates the point. #economy #markets #tech #investing #investors

From the Bloomberg article on "SoftBank Offers Record Yields on Jumbo Junk Bonds in AI Push:" "The flood of AI funding in global financial markets, however, has made some bond investors uneasy." #economy #markets #tech #bonds https://t.co/TK13JAkBKI

👇🏼 https://t.co/HslfbR8q3c

As the national average price of diesel in the United States sets a new record high of $6.53 per gallon... #energy #diesel #markets #economy https://t.co/qEC2PcbsFx

The link to this morning's conversation on CNBC. Thank you, Carl, David, and Sara, for having me on the show. https://t.co/KRHboxHZqk #economy #markets @CNBC @carlquintanilla @davidfaber @SaraEisen @SquawkStreet

Further signs of UK fiscal pressure ahead of next month’s budget: Driven partly by higher debt servicing costs and inflation, UK public sector borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August. This came in above the £15.5 billion consensus forecast and widened the overshoot against the OBR’s projections (Reuters chart below). All of which underscores the limited fiscal headroom facing the Labour government ahead of its debut budget. #economy #uk #markets #budget

Flying below the radar: The US 2s-30s yield curve is now trading just below 55 bps—halving in just a month or so. More to follow. #economy #markets #bonds #yields https://t.co/AY5dgXSHbr

Look for four competing visions for the global order at UNGA this week: A modified, US-led model adapted for current geopolitical conditions; A Chinese-asserted alternative positioning Beijing as the primary guardian of multilateralism; A middle-power alternative driven by pragmatic, flexible, and issue-based coalitions; and Continuing fragmentation, leading to a more transactional and decentralized global landscape. #economy #markets #UN #UNGA

Via the @FT, my thoughts on why central bank rate hikes should not be “the only game in town” when it comes to addressing today's inflation challenge. The real remedies lie not with central banks but with governments: addressing supply bottlenecks and pursuing greater fiscal consolidation (which would also ease pressure on long-run yields by creating more room for the funding of innovations). https://t.co/sfhjHMjosn #economy #markets #centralbanks #inflation

Among the notable price moves in markets this morning: the multi-day decline in oil prices extends, with Brent crude joining WTI below $100 a barrel. (CNBC data below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets https://t.co/PjCYvaED5y

Despite another day of lower international crude oil prices, refined product markets continue to move in the opposite direction. According to AAA data (below), diesel has pushed above $6.50 a gallon, while regular gas is near $4.50. Also and of note, refined products are increasingly featuring in diplomatic interactions, as this recent example (below) from the Financial Times illustrates -- this as pressure grows for export bans. #economy #markets #energy #oil #diesel @FT

In this Financial Times column, the leaders of Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and Kenya propose forming the "'Partners for Multilateralism' ... to create a flexible, open framework for countries from different regions and political traditions that are willing to work across divides, to build coalitions for reform and to translate shared principles into practical action." Whether you call it P4M or a middle-powers initiative, the purpose is clear: to counter the risk of global fragmentation driven by US-China great power competition. https://t.co/sD6hlB6mgj #economy #markets #globalization @FT

Jets lose in OT.... We were all hoping for a new normal for our beloved Jets, including starting the season 2-0 for the first time since 2015. Instead, we’re right back to the old normal. This time around, we blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter ... and then lost the game in overtime after giving up two sacks and stupid penalties. If we can't have a new normal, can we at least time-warp back to theREALLY old normal?!?!? À la 1969?!?!? 🏈✈️. Please! #Jets #NYJets @nyjets

Despite a calming Fed meeting last week, global markets enter the new week with a rebound in sovereign yields and rising energy pressures. We also have high-stakes diplomacy at the Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of UNGA, alongside an extensive data calendar and the return of Fedspeak. For details, please use one of the two links below to access my weekly look at the global economy and markets: https://t.co/1JDyPBlgzT https://t.co/xVytzLRu0d #economy #markets

This chart on Europe from the Financial Times is a general reminder that, in exhibiting impressive resilience to the energy shock, the global economy has run down its physical inventory. #economy #oil #energy #markets @ft https://t.co/7EYl1wSiwM

Thank you to Richard Quest and Stuart Varney for having me on their shows today. #economy #markets https://t.co/dFBma7M6If

From Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech today, outlining "the initial findings of the independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)." Many will view this as yet another addition to an already long list of institutional missteps by the Powell-led Fed. #economy #federalreserve #markets

While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages. #economy #markets #yields #mortgages @WSJ https://t.co/3TB236Qx1W

Remember Europe's old Core/Periphery framing, complete with the infamous "PIGS" moniker (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain)? Well, look how the world has evolved -- not only as illustrated below, but also as Italian sovereign spreads have recently traded inside their French counterparts. #economy #europe #markets

Government bond yields are on the move again: The US 10-year Treasury is back at 5% and the 30-year is above 5.30% (Bloomberg table below.) #bonds #economy #markets #yields https://t.co/9PUG2oN9bo

In the continuation of the masterclass in corporate succession: In a characteristically humble and well-written letter to Berkshire shareholders (below), Warren Buffett reflects on his tenure, passes the Chair role to Howard Buffett, and reaffirms his confidence in Greg Abel. #economy #berkshirehathaway #warrenbuffett @WarrenBuffett

A reminder to watch refined products alongside crude: While crude oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive day, refined products continue to climb, with US diesel hitting a fresh record high of $6.45 (AAA table). Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, has informed European refiners to expect no crude deliveries in October. #economy #markets #oil #diesel

Good morning The signaling accompanying the Bank of Japan's rate hike sent the Yen weaker: In a widely expected move, Japan’s central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level since 1995. Yet, as the signaling regarding future hikes disappointed markets, the Yen depreciated more than 1%, continuing to unwind gains sparked by (actual and anticipated) FX intervention. (CNBC chart below). #economy #markets j #japan #boj #centralbanks

Posted earlier: Depending on where you look, the current U.S. economy can be characterized in one of three ways: 1. An economy in equilibrium, anchored by forces of mean reversion. 2. An increasingly unstable equilibrium, driven by diminishing financial and physical buffers. 3. An economy in multi-year transition, reshaped by technological change and geo-economics. Rather than opting for just one of these, consider the world of the in-between: https://t.co/6PnTWV96mX #economy #markets @nytimes

Thank you, @LesliePicker, for the interesting conversation on @CNBCClosingBell. https://t.co/nheGV1u14Y #economy #markets @CNBC #federalreserve https://t.co/vmjtJK1UFm

Despite widespread analyst commentary today that the Federal Reserve addressed inflation concerns and passed a “credibility test,” longer-term yields have remained relatively range-bound over the last few days. This is not because those factors are unimportant, but because they have not been, and are not, the primary drivers pushing yields higher. #economy #markets @CNBC @cnbcclosingbell #federalreserve