Jim Bianco

@FrederickM87664 @profplum99 @MuniBondz 10-year yield less y/y CPI

When the U.S. launched Project Freedom about two weeks ago and sent destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz (protected by ~100 planes at a cost of $50–100 million in just two days), Iran hit Gulf neighbors in retaliation. The media reported that some Gulf states were furious — partly because senior U.S. officers had downplayed their defense as a low priority. Restated: the U.S. military already had its hands full. We don’t have an effective shield against mass, the cheap drones and missiles fired against a large area, like an entire Gulf country (see Ukraine, they do). The Gulf states got so nervous that they suspended U.S. use of their air bas…

Crossing Bloomberg now 2 to 3 days is now 5 or 6 (early next week) *TRUMP ON TIME FOR IRAN: 2-3 DAYS, MAYBE TIL EARLY NEXT WEEK - BBG

As pointed out below, “stocks are increasingly seen as an inflation hedge,” so fund managers are piling in. The idea that stocks are a hedge against inflation is not new and has not worked for over a century. BofA’s Michael Hartnett’s latest “Flow Show” from Friday: * above 4% on CPI where risk assets get twitchy… past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next three months, -7% next six months.” Note that year-over-year CPI inflation was 3.8% through April. Warren Buffett warned about this almost 50 years ago: Fortune, May 1, 1977 Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor “For many years, the conventional wisdom i…

Two or Three Days

The chart below shows that passive mutual funds and ETFs now make up almost 62% of all equity funds’ assets. Has the adage "flows follow performance" now become "flows create performance"? @fleckcap @adamtaggart @profplum99 https://t.co/lSTjob1FYd

Timeline the last 24 hours Sunday night: "Time of the Essense" for Iranian deal ...S&P futures down Two hours before open: Close to a deal ... S&P futures rally Morning: Not close to a deal, S&P down Aftenoon: Holding off on tomorrow's attack to get a deal, S&P recovers.

Trump is VERY transparent. That post perfectly expresses his utter frustration. Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not just a matter of will. We don’t have a sustainable military answer right now because we don't have a defensive shield against asymmetric warfare (cheap drones and missiles), as Ukraine has against Russia. When the U.S. launched Project Freedom roughly two weeks ago, three guided-missile destroyers were sent through the Strait to escort commercial shipping. The Navy came under a sustained barrage of Iranian drones and missiles and intercepted 100% of the attacks. Yet the defensive effort after just two days was extraordinaril…

So, in the two hours before the NYSE was set to open lower, crude oil was moving higher...

Trump believes time is on his side (repost). What could change this? Markets! The 10-year yield (black) is the highest of his 2nd term. Brent futures for Dec 2026 (blue) and Jun 2027 (orange) are at new highs. Pricing in $90+ the rest of the year, and $80+ for another year. https://t.co/Wz4XZOS2bj

Fertility peaked in 2007. 2026 is 18 years later, when this "baby bust" starts heading to college. Only the beginning, and ALL schools should prepare. https://t.co/iCmPLrlcyl

Reminder “The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 2/5/25. The 10-year yield at 4.60% is just 2 bps from the highest yield since Trump took office on Jan 20, 2025. https://t.co/Iyd0bxwrEI

Dear Kevin Warsh Later today, you will be sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Congratulations. You got the job by convincing the President you share his vision that the Fed needs to cut rates. The problem is that today, on your first day as Chairman, the market is pricing in a 64% probability that rates will HIKE before the end of the year. Good luck!

The last time the 30-year yield traded at this level, George W Bush was President. Let's see if it closes at this level (5 PM ET). https://t.co/WKu0a9lHZB

Or, history will not be kind to the decades of groupthink at the Fed that have led them to countless policy errors, many of which Rosengren endorsed. Miran was a catalyst for changing this approach, and the institution is better for it. And, if you want to criticize a fellow Fed member, spell his name correctly. (FYI - Miran dissented for a cut at all six meetings he voted in. The Fed cut in three of them. Will history not be kind to the FOMC for those cuts, too?)

*KEVIN WARSH CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR IN SENATE VOTE The market (red and green) is pointing to Fed HIKES while the Fed (blue) and Warsh's statements are pointing toward CUTS. Warsh needs to get everyone on the same page. Warsh starts Friday. https://t.co/oMeGTzDTUA

https://t.co/IpPfxIjlcT

The U.S. 30-Year Yield is now 5.03%. It has only been higher for a handful of days in the last 19 years. And it is now just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high. https://t.co/bLBL4NzjQe

Kevin Warsh has to be confirmed to two posts, Fed Governor and then Fed Chairman. (The Chairman has to be a Fed Governor). Just now: *SENATE CONFIRMS WARSH TO FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF GOVERNORS The era of Stephen Miran is now over (Warsh takes his seat). Next up is confirming him as Fed Chairman; this is expected by tomorrow.

Not surprisingly, Iran has attacked the U.A.E. more than any other country. https://t.co/ymqoYUiU5n

The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda is reconciling market perception with the Fed’s forward guidance. https://t.co/gBnw09BTTp

3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4 Same chart as above, back to the beginning of the war. Are bond traders now energy traders? Or are energy traders now bond traders? https://t.co/57FHmM3ISP

So, now what? Start shooting at each other again? https://t.co/Sw65kN4H6J

As the fertility rate collapses, The Economist this week detailed who is still having kids: rich white urban couples. They detailed Wicker Park (Chicago) and the similar neighborhood of Park Slope (Brooklyn). https://t.co/AKtjugFhby

Does this mean we are back to shooting at each other? *TRUMP COMMENTS ON OBAMA AND IRAN IN A TRUTH SOCIAL POST *TRUMP: IRAN HAS BEEN PLAYING GAMES WITH THE UNITED STATES *TRUMP: IRAN HAS BEEN PLAYING GAMES W/ US, REST OF WORLD *TRUMP: IRAN WILL BE LAUGHING NO LONGER https://t.co/za324R099A

1/12 In the interview below, I expressed concerns about wage growth. I might be too low! I detail my thinking in this 🧵 2/12 April wages rose 0.2% (less than expected) to a y/y growth of 3.6% (blue). Normally, this is good news, indicating wage inflation is under control. However, gasoline is soaring, narrowing the gap (bottom line) to CPI (orange). https://t.co/g6TAgAwf2z 3/12 The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast shows y/y CPI rising to 3.9% by May (red box), well above the current wage growth. Real wages (after inflation), bottom panel above, should turn negative, meaning inflation rises more than wages, further dividing the K-shap…

Another way to express the reposted chart is that the fertility rate peaked in 2007, which was 19 years ago. We still underestimate the extent of the damage the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis (aka the "Great Recession") inflicted on society. https://t.co/Cme4OqtzQV

*US STILL AWAITING IRAN RESPONSE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SAT:AXIOS https://t.co/bV0VByx9KH

I'm a proud alum of Marquette (MU). Chirs farley is also an Alum of MU The writer, Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), is an MU alum too. Harvard produced 8 U.S. presidents. MU produced both the writer and actor of the greatest SNL skit ever (per Rolling Stone). I win!!

I wrote this on April 26 Iran is running out of oil storage, and shutting down oil production is extremely damaging (true). However, Iran has one more "card" to play: dump 2 million barrels/day into the Persian Gulf, creating an ecological disaster?