Jim Bianco

Yesterday, VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, surpassed $1 trillion dollars in assets. The first ETF to hit this milestone. IVV and SPY are in second and third place; they are all S&P 500 tracker ETFs. @EricBalchunas @JSeyff @DaveNadig https://t.co/RHZxfyDhax

The Federal Reserve Act says the President can fire a Fed Governor "for cause." No President has attempted to fire a Fed Governor "for cause," so no one knows what this means. Trump is attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook for cause, claiming she committed fraud in improperly filling out a mortgage application. Cook is defending herself, and the Supreme Court heard oral arguments about the case on January 21. A ruling is expected in the next few weeks (the Supreme Court term ends at the end of June, and we are awaiting several rulings before then). --- Specifically, the court will have to define what constitutes a "cause" to fire a …

Within 60 days, if not less than 30 days. Here is one "why." -- Last week on Bloomberg TV, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that despite ongoing peace talks, persistent shipping disruptions and kinetic risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain very real. He emphasized that the global system is structurally tight, citing U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories at their lowest levels since 2003, with zero spare refining capacity to replenish them. Crucially, he noted that even if a diplomatic resolution is reached, independent shipowners and cautious insurers will be deeply hesitant to rush back in, preventing any immediate return to normal supply …

Here is my take, which is consistent with the Goehring & Rozencwajg letter in the repost? ---- Every crisis—1997, 2008, 2020—starts with the same institutional script: treating a structural problem as a temporary liquidity glitch. Wall Street is hardwired to assume that everything will safely revert to a mean, fearing the phrase "this time is different." It takes months of frustration to realize the rules of the game have changed. Today, I fear we are repeating this exact behavioral trap. Believing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a brief, 60-day hurdle, governments and oil companies are aggressively draining inventories to bridge the…

@JiggaGeralt As above, you have your own definition of a bubble that differs from others'.

@JiggaGeralt If you want a definite answer give a definite definition

@mtochs @PawRze Check back in a year or two

@Fred_Blurst So you're on the opposite side of all those replies saying it's too narrow a definition. What is the correct definition?

@iapananidis You have a definition of bubble that others do not share. Others here bubble and think, "make a lot of money."

@PawRze How do you measure the results?

This chart is more important Token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw). AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage. It's just starting. https://t.co/n0W8MvRUJG

@Coffee__Capital Data centers are "bringing their own power" and bypassing utilities, so they are not responsible for raising electric bills.

1/2 Yesterday, I posted the chart below, which shows that the entire "war rally" in the stock market has been driven by AI. Take out AI, and the rest of the stock market has done little since gasoline started soaring (blue). Is this a bubble? Probably. But the more important question, when in the "bubble cycle" are we, rather than just a proclamation that there is one? Remember that bubbles can be both the best time to make a lot of money and the hardest time to hold on to that money (when they pop). Using the internet bubble as a benchmark: Is today more like Dec 5, 1996, when Greenspan warned of "irrational exuberance"? If so, and you …

https://t.co/sOeyMIHc17

Feb 27 is the day before the war began. The black line is the S&P 500; it is up 10+% since Feb 27. The blue line is the S&P WITHOUT the AI stocks (see the description and repost). It is still DOWN 0.66%. Maybe soaring gas prices are having an impact on the market after all? https://t.co/14gkxpZTtN

@tomaas26 Way above it if you see the thread below. And set to soar even more with SpaceX, ChatGPT and OpenAI

2/5 What are the AI-Stocks? I use the list that J.P. Morgan's Michael Cemblast made last fall. Here is a table with its details. https://t.co/R13KORGhce 3/5 Note that the list above does NOT include SpaceX (which has Xai, or Grok), Anthropic, and OpenAI. SpaceX's IPO is expected around June 12. So, when will they be included in the S&P 500, allowing AI to account for over 50% of the S&P 500? Last week, S&P proposed changing its rules so that mega-cap IPOs could become eligible for S&P 500 inclusion after six months, rather than the usual one-year seasoning period. The proposal would also relax some standard hurdles for these companies…

1/3 As we await Trump to emerge from the Situation Room with a decision ... What does the market think? https://t.co/hSkAN4BVsn 2/3 Note that the definition of "reopen" is shown on the chart above: any day when 60 ships cross the Strait, as measured by IMF Port Watch. Here is the latest from that measure. https://t.co/orvP9mJPj4 3/3 I don't think Iran will allow this much shipping to pass through the Strait before the end of the 60-day MOU (at the end of July). This would mean they are giving away their leverage. The consensus thinks the blockade is forcing them to make this deal. I disagree

I will be participating https://t.co/OlN6rFBPY1

The repost details the Wall Street consensus that the Strait is days away from reopening, and this will lead to crude prices plummeting. Add this chart. It shows that most of the net long positions among managed money (CTAs) and Large Speculators were established BEFORE the war began (and made good money), and they have been paring it back since the opening days of the war (prices are higher today). Restated, Wall Street's peak oil bullishness was over two months ago, and they have been pulling back every week. Industry professionals (i.e., Commercial Traders) are on the other side of Wall Street. Which side do you want to be on? @CommodM…

On @cnbcAsiaTV this morning, @CommodMkt said, "Sell The Tweet, Buy The Molcule." Currie detailed that Trump tweeted five times that the war was effectively over, but it has not happened. The chart shows my guess of the five times. Currie is correct. If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started. Not a bad trading strategy! We are currently on the 6th tweet saying that the war is over; it is still a work in progress. Is this the next great crude oil buying opportunity?

Different take on SaaS... For AI to justify its valuations, it has to do what the iPhone did to cameras and tape recorders. Replace most SaaS with AI. Don't have room for the big SaaS spend we currently have AND a giant AI compute bill too. https://t.co/FoOHOECTy2

Seems the Iranians' definition of the Strait of Hormuz as "open" is not the world's definition of "open."

Last month someone opened fire on his San Fran house. No one was home and no one was injured. Does Sam want more bullet holes in his walls??? https://t.co/d4CVE2LkQU

April y/y CPI was 3.8% The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast has May y/y CPI jumping to 4.2%.

The national average gasoline price set a new post-war (since February 27) high yesterday. https://t.co/MEuDWPZNNt

This might be the best poll question ever asked. And the results are even better!

The fed funds futures contracts are pricing an 84% probability that the Fed will HIKE rates before the end of the year. Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chairman tomorrow at the White House, with Trump standing about 3 feet away. Good luck, Kevin. https://t.co/e86Efwzmlg

2/3 The consensus view among fund managers is that the Strait will open in a few weeks and that oil prices will collapse. https://t.co/ry5Mu7pkLR 3/3 Cramer is all-in on this view. Note his wording (my CAPS) ... People just FEAR the war will be over, yields will plummet, and we will look RIDICULOUS for being out of this market https://t.co/z2BQl0UUne Added later The last few hours of Brent Crude Oil Trading. https://t.co/yCAGuZvnZ0

Who has a higher positive rating than AI? Trump Republicans Democrats ICE Who has lower positive rating than AI? Iran Everyone pitching AI to the public should be fired.