Jim Bianco

Maybe the problem is that we compare this to investing. How leveraged ETFs compare to prediction markets and sports betting might be a better comparison. https://t.co/V9YWKRSg0F

2 Hours before the NYSE Open

On Friday (repost), I noted the US announced it attacked Iran 36 minutes after the NYSE closed. Well: 23 minutes after the Asian markets opened this evening, The US and Iran have agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues, paving the way to end days of tit-for-tat attacks that tested a fragile truce. https://t.co/smUPJ3xjGC

Over the last week or so, the $SPX is down ~2% (black) AI-related stocks (red) have slumped ~4.52%. This is ~50/75 of the S&P 500. Non-Al stocks (orange) have soared ~2.31%. This is ~425 to 450. Is this market telling us it is bullish for the economy if AI stocks get crushed? https://t.co/5KbjivEeaP

Heat wave is hitting the US starting Monday. The map is Wednesday’s projected highs. Yellow is 90s, red is 100s. Just in time for the knock out round. The hydration break is going from a commercial gimmick to a matter of survival. https://t.co/dGSuxSH7lH

What if they flipped the offsides rule from any part of your body in front of the defender is offsides to any part of your body behind the defender is not offsides? (hockey uses a fixed blue line for offsides. The puck has to cross the blue line first. A player is not offsides if any part of his body is on or behind the blue line when the puck crosses. So what I suggested is the way hockey defines a player being offsides.) The outrage is allowing minutes of unbridled celebration and then telling everyone the goal is disallowed. The sport needs is a real time signal of offsides before the goal is scored. Then immediately put it on the score…

@EricBalchunas Should football get rid of this rule, so the right guard can catch passes? How about the ineligible man down field rule too? Both would increase scoring, but would it make the game better?

Iran shot at a second tanker this morning (below). This headline crossed Bloomberg in the last 15 minutes. *US SAYS IT CONDUCTED ADDITIONAL STRIKES ON IRANIAN TARGETS

Moments after Trump signed the MOU, he gestured, "oil down, stocks up." (last 3 seconds below) Since June 17: * DJIA (Trump's preferred stock index) +0.75% * WTI Crude Oil, -8.57% So by Trump's stated metrics, he probably thinks this is his greatest deal ever.

1/5 The Bitcoin and Eth ETFs, plus Strategy ($MSTR) and BitMine Immersion Technologies ($BMNR), are collectively holding an unrealized loss of $62.41 Billion BTC Unrealized Losses (and average purchase price) All Spot Bitcoin ETFs = $22.42 Billion ($82,899) Strategy (largest BTC Treasury Company) = $19.84B ($75,640) Total Unrealized Losses = $42.26 Billion ETH Unrealized Losses (and average purchase price) All Spot Ethereum ETFs = $9.37 Billion ($3,934) BitMine Immersion Technologies (largest ETH Treasury Company) = $10.78 Billion ($3,456) Total Unrealized Losses = $20.15 Billion 2/5 Unrealized Losses (and average purchase price) All Spot…

So why are there not tens of thousands of billionaires from inherited wealth via these stock market gains? In fact, there are almost none. Victor Haghani and James White wrote a book explaining why … “The Missing Billionaires.” https://t.co/Trl05RRNVn

Money managers have abandoned positioning for $200 oil ... does this now increase the risk of $200 oil? ----- The CFTC was closed today, so the Commitment of Traders report for June 16 will be released on Monday. But the Intercontinental Exchange released its data for London's Brent Crude Oil Contract for June 16 today. Here is the net (long-short) for managed money (aka "money managers"). The chart starts on April 30, 2020 (beginning of the post-COVID recovery). In the last four weeks, these managers went from a fairly long position (see the May 19 position in the bottom panel) to a fairly low net long position (June 16). Note that these…

Trump signed this in Versailles yesterday. Let’s hope the “MOU of Versailles” is a better deal for the world than the “Treaty of Versailles.”

Autopen

https://t.co/vv7GUlJ0TF

For all the talk that this deal means inflation will collapse (with Crude Oil) ... the 30-year yield just turned higher on the day. https://t.co/uqT3MOkOS0

The Iran War was over around March 15. At its center was nuclear weapons. Since then, this has been the Strait of Hormuz War. At its center is free passage of oil tankers.

2/2 At their peak last week, AI stocks were 49% of the S&P 500 (chart). This is the most concentrated the stock market has been on a single theme since the railroad stocks of the late 19th century. Higher when SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are added, after they are all public. Given this historic concentration, and AI and non-AI stocks are moving opposite each other (above), is the stock market effectively two asset classes * AI * Everything Else

Red Headlines on Bloomberg crossing at the same time as the post below ... *TRUMP SAYS IRAN DEAL SCHEDULED TO BE SIGNED SUNDAY *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL *TRUMP SAYS 'WE LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH IRAN' --- The deal's wording is still not public

Red Headlines on Bloomberg Now *TRUMP SAYS IRAN DEAL SCHEDULED TO BE SIGNED SUNDAY *TRUMP SAYS NO MONEY WILL EXCHANGE HANDS IN IRAN DEAL *TRUMP SAYS 'WE LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH IRAN' --- The deal's wording is still not public.

Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina has been missing from public view since May 28, skipping three major events—including the June 4 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum ("Russian Davos"), and a critical interest rate meeting with Putin on June 9th. The Kremlin claims she is on "sick leave." Her bio is still on the Russian Central Bank website as its head. She has been clashing with Putin over wartime inflation and military recruitment spending. She is resisting intense pressure to cut rates and effectively print money to fund war spending and massive soldier bonuses to meet recruitment goals (because casualties are soaring i…

SpaceX employees with their Starship Rocket in the background. https://t.co/avvvYPr9Xp

Elon's net worth ended today at $1.109 trillion, up $413 billion over the last two days (per SpaceX IPO pricing). How was your week? https://t.co/Tv2vkzL3ph

*MUSK BECOMES WORLD'S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE AS SPACEX JUMPS AT OPEN

Since the War began on Feb 27th, the S&P 500 (black) is up 7.34%. But the S&P 500 without AI stocks (blue) is effectively unchanged. So, the entire S&P 500 Index rally since February has been driven by AI stocks. But look at what happened on Friday, June 5th! The S&P 500 was down 2.6%, its biggest daily loss since last October. The S&P 500 without AI was up 0.02% (call it unchanged). So, the entire sell-off on Friday was AI stocks. The "normal world" did nothing on Friday.

Bloomberg red headline crossing in the last 10 minutes. *ISRAEL'S IDF SAYS STRUCK MILITARY TARGETS IN IRAN

A thought In the 1950s to the 1970s, information channels were so scarce that even the most studious investor, reading the same New York Times as everyone else on the morning commute, inevitably absorbed the same narrative, producing classic groupthink. Today, I fear we might be recreating that exact dynamic at digital speed: millions of users generate daily AI briefings with near-identical prompts fed into overlapping models, receiving essentially the same market summaries, signals, and conclusions. The result? A new era of synchronized thinking, just like 50–70 years ago, when alpha generation was far higher precisely because consensus c…

The reposted chart shows the results of China's admission to the WTO in 2001. This chart shows the consequences of it (see the 2019 book "Death of Despair and the Future of Capitalism" by Anne Case and Angus Deaton) https://t.co/LNRW92AAgn

@Rangfeng1117 Read what I said

President Trump has changed the narrative about interest rates to “higher is always bad for whatever reason,” and “lower is always good for whatever reason.” This is incorrect. If rates go to 6% because of a strong economy, and see earnings and the low unemployment rate, this will be a good thing. If rates go to 6% driven by accelerated inflation, this will be a bad thing. The why matters more than the level when it comes to interest rate rates. But the worst thing is to use government and monetary policy to force them too low, and create speculative excesses. This results in malinvestment that often ends in tears.