Jim Bianco

1/2 This chart illustrates the incredible stat reposted below. Blue is retail sales AFTER inflation, almost no gain in 3 years. Orange is retail sales BEFORE (nominal), soaring as prices are much higher. How does cutting rates and pumping stocks fix this? @profplum99 https://t.co/qmcijACJT7 2/2 Yesterday, Trump said: “The word affordability is a con job by the Democrats,” Trump said Dec. 2. “The word affordability is a Democrat scam." -- If the public thinks affordability (inflation) is a problem, then it is! Yelling at them that they're being scammed, and what they see in the store is a terrible strategy. This also applies to the Fe…

Russian Gas flows to Europe were already down 85% from the peak. Not hard to get rid of the last 15%. https://t.co/nryCJWFflR Natural gas in Europe follows a predictable pattern. In the summer months, they fill their storage facilities to use primarily for winter space heating. The gray area shows the range from 2010 to 2024 (excluding the COVID-related distortions in 2021). The blue line is natural gas in storage in 2025. Europe is running very low inventories. They'd better hope for a mild winter, or heating bills are going parabolic, especially without access to cheap Russian gas.

Stats about $MSTR's NAV: * Negative since Nov 12 .. took a month to notice? * Lowest NAV since Mar 27, 2023 (SVB failure) * It reached -50.92% on May 12, 2022 (Terra/Luna collapse) * Consistently negative for 18 months (Jan 22 to Aug 23) The peak of 229% on November 20, 2024... this was the height of BTC excitement over Trump's win. The chart above shows the Market Cap (MC) of $MSTR relative to the value of the $BTC it holds. It is NOT Enterprise Value (EV) to $BTC. EV is MC plus outstanding debt and preferred stock. It shows the MC premium/discount of $MSTR to the $BTC it holds. (benchmarked around 0%, not 1.00 like other measures. I …

@commonsenseplay Reminder, the current "K" has broken with 60 years of history. https://t.co/bSfpaSPXZl

*SPOT SILVER HITS NEW RECORD HIGH, SURPASSING OCTOBER PEAK Now over $55 2025 has been an amazing year for precious metals. https://t.co/yFyOMVxBAe

Interesting that @profplum99 calculates the poverty rate at $140k/year, and the average first-time home buyer needs $130k/year to qualify for a mortgage Coincidence? https://t.co/iADfQZ2u8b

1/7 This analysis concludes by saying "something is seriously wrong with the housing market." Not based on this chart. tl:dr - New home sizes are falling to account for this spread falling below zero. Adjust for that, and there is nothing to see here. Short 🧵 2/7 Same chart with prices in the top panel. It is correct that the new home premium (green) above existing home prices (blue) has collapsed from 38% in 2013 to below zero today (the lowest in 54 years). Why? See new home prices (orange), they stalled. https://t.co/kCLume1QDi 3/7 Here is the average home price (orange) and the home's size (blue). The reason prices are falling…

The Nov Chicago Business Barometer (formerly ISM) was released y'day. It collapsed. Something similar happened in Dec 2024, and I suggested that it was not a signal of a national downturn, but was the Chicago-area Purchasing Manager "sending a hostage note pleading for help." Same here, consider (all in the last month): * Property taxes assessments were mailed in November, and they soared as much as 100% in some neighborhoods. * Illinois now has the highest property taxes in the country * The Mayor wants to raise taxes on businesses. * The Governor wants to raise the state income tax * Several people are shot at a Christmas Tree lighting *…

In China, the beatings will continue until morale improves! https://t.co/cZ9H1wiE73

The government works exactly the same way as Rule 11 in Monopoly. So as long as we don't run out of pens and paper, there will be no default. Now, what those pieces of paper might be worth is another story. https://t.co/GGTBzoSaoL

Looking forward to speaking with @cvpayne today on Making Money on the Fox Business Network https://t.co/bDmIMuGEzU

Remember that this meeting still looks like it will have several dissents; a 7-5 vote to cut rates is not out of the question. Weakening labor vs affordability (inflation) is causing deep division within the Fed. It should; it is not a clear-cut decision. https://t.co/7OQ2aL6GV2

@confederacynig And if they are wrong, lower rates will stimulate inflation and lower the standard of living for the majority of the country (the bottom half of income).

RealClearPolitics aggregates polling data into rolling averages. This chart shows "issues" polling averages. That is, they ask, "Do you approve of the President's handling of <fill-in the blank>". Trump is strongest on crime (blue) and weakest on inflation (green). Note that the two issues that are worse than his overall approval rating (black) are the economy and inflation. And only the economy and inflation are the lowest of his presidency. Finally, the issue that is sinking the fastest is inflation. --- I've been critical of the administration for yelling at the public that inflation is a non-problem. If the public thinks it is a problem…

Now that the Government is open, the data is flowing again. *US JOBLESS CLAIMS 216,000 IN NOV. 22 WEEK; EST. 225K This is one of the lowest readings of the year. --- This was considered a "desert-island indicator:" if you needed one measure to tell you the health of the economy, it was initial claims. Now it doesn't fit the narrative that the labor market is falling apart and the Fed must keep cutting rates, so it's getting ignored. Meanwhile, every financial television network today has run at least three stories about affordability (i.e., inflation) this morning. So let's make money cheaper, stimulate the economy, and pump the stock ma…

2/8 For the 50 years following WWII (box), home price gains kept pace with inflation ("real" prices), making housing affordable. Starting in the late 90s, housing went into wild boom-bust cycles. This is when housing started to be viewed as a piggy bank to fund retirement. https://t.co/JYRSLfoIKR 3/8 400 years of real (inflation-adjusted) home prices in Amsterdam show that housing has remained affordable for centuries. This view began to break down in the late 1990s, as housing became the piggy bank for retirement. https://t.co/jrjllTUb6m 4/8 For a while in the early 2000s, we tried to achieve both goals (fund retirement and still be …

*HASSETT EMERGES AS TOP PICK AS FED SEARCH NEARS END, PEOPLE SAY *KEVIN HASSETT SEEN AS FRONTRUNNER IN TRUMP FED CHAIR SEARCH First time anyone has traded above 50%. https://t.co/4EhCGxA6UY

It’s all your fault for not buying a new phone! https://t.co/KKQhoa12Fd

45% is the US working age population (16 to 64) have a college degree. 25% of unemployed working age have college degrees. Hyperventilating about this tells me too many slept through statistics class in college.

@william_R2Rclub @elonmusk @sama He calls him Scam Altman

This has to be a fake picture. Otherwise, @elonmusk would put his cigar out on @sama's face. https://t.co/QhJYCJDslW

The argument in the post is commonly said, but not entirely accurate. tl:dr, the Genius Act says stablecoins are backed one-for-one by Treasury Bills. So, increased stablecoin issuance creates demand for Treasuries and lower interest rates. So, where does the money come from to purchase a stablecoin? Suppose the funds are already in the financial system (i.e., a bank account or money market fund). In that case, it is just a transfer from one account that is backed by government securities to another account backed by government securities. The net change in Treasury demand is zero. Every American buying Stablecoins is not increasing Treasur…

Jim Bianco 11:50 *US 3Q GDP ADVANCED ESTIMATE REPORT CANCELED The Atlanta Fed GDPNow, which has been tracking the data that has been released, was showing the 3rd quarter was going to be a big number. Now we'll never know. https://t.co/SvNFm3j5kk

Markets often test these theories to see if they are valid. Especially when you announce they are indestructible.

I've read a thousand bearish stories about AI. Are there any bullish stories?

Good quote by @Claudia_Sahm, and the title of the Bloomberg story is also correct: Fed watching is now about vote counting, not dissecting what the Chairman says (and Powell has not spoken publicly since the October 29 Press Conference). Dissents are the new forward guidance, and it looks like a 7-5 vote to cut is coming in December. Fed Governor Chris Waller signaled the Fed is divided and we are about to see many dissents (from the Bloomberg story): “On the group-think thing, people who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group-think you’ve seen from the FOMC in a long time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said M…

It’s a 3% correction!

How will more rate cuts fix this? https://t.co/ssLGfrEZWx

Big number, but a lot of data is missing due to the shutdown (no way to know if the missing data is positive or negative).

@EricBalchunas @twopoke44208 To be clear, it does not have to be the ETF holders panicking out. But crypto sell-offs typically don't end until something breaks. What breaks to stop this decline? (In April 2025, it was Trump who "broke" and reversed his liberation Day stance).