Jim Bianco

1/4 Here is a six-month bar chart of silver prices. It is no surprise that such a bar chart often signals "problems." https://t.co/PlFJ4iD2k1 2/4 Silver prices (above) have only given back the last two weeks or so. How can a mid-January level produce a stressful situation? Here is the entire history of the value traded (volume x price) for the ~$60B iShares Silver ETF ( $SLV), a proxy for the entire silver market. https://t.co/1sd9LnJLK9 3/4 Here is the last 6 months of the chart above, aligned with the post #1 chart. The last 10 days or so, the value traded was over $200B. Friday's close is well below these levels. For comparison, i…

The Fed fund futures market is pricing a 17% probability that the Fed cuts rates at the March meeting. Now that Kevin Warsh has been nominated for Fed chairman, will Chris Waller dissent at that meeting for a rate cut?

How does this solve the affordability crisis? Asking for a renter friend of mine.

@EricBalchunas https://t.co/5m3ObtpYhk

Trump makes it official https://t.co/qkUeWIZouw

As I've argued for a few months now, this explains what Fed watching has now become. It is no longer about what the Fed chairman says, it's about counting FOMC voter intentions and seeing which side of the ledger has 7 votes (majority of the 12 FOMC voters).

The announcement is expected on Friday morning. Bloomberg: *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID TO BE PREPARING WARSH FED NOMINATION --- The scuttlebutt is they were indeed looking for "door #5," And Scott Bessent even met with @judyshel on Monday (but not Trump). In the end, they couldn't find a better candidate, so (my characterization) Trump held his nose, met with Warsh again this morning, and picked him from the four finalists. Warsh has been a favorite for many months. So, why did it take such a torturous process to arrive at an early favorite? Because while Warsh has credibility and can (presumably) pass Senate confirmation, Trump could not …

1/3 Bitcoin breakeven update … The average purchase for all the flows into all the spot $BTC since inception (January 2024) is $90,200. With today’s plunge, the AVERAGE $BTC ETF holder is about $5,000 (or ~7% underwater). https://t.co/B9AGyzKq26 2/3 The largest Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) is Strategy (formally Microstrategy, $MSTR) has an average purchase price of $76,020. They are sitting on ~$8,000 profit, or about ~12% gain. https://t.co/dF4dVVTHRm 3/3 Combine them and they are ~10% of the $BTC in circulation, and the overwhelming majority of Tradfi’s securities account holdings of $BTC. Below shows they now have no unrealized pro…

1/2 Betting to replace Powell, here are the latest probabilities: Rieder 36% Warsh 26% Waller 17% "Door #5" 14% Hassett 7% When no one is trading above 40%, it means the race to succeed Powell is wide open... even "Door #5" (someone else) is now in play. https://t.co/8uEvpZJutH 2/2 Bettors think Waller's dissent in favor of a cut "got him back in the game" to replace Powell. https://t.co/KTEjTO2POE

Question for reporters in the Fed presser. Are you afraid to ask difficult or probing questions to the Chairman out of fear that Michelle Smith, the head of the Fed press office, will either exclude you or not call on you in future pressers? Michelle Smith is the voice you hear off-camera saying who gets the next question. The order is not pre-arranged with reporters. Her office decides who gets to answer questions and does not share that information in advance.

Kudos to the press for asking Fed Chairman Powell about his accusation that the President is using the Justice Department to influence monetary policy. He said, "Now is not the time or place." --- Powell's charge is probably the most significant charge a Federal Reserve chairman has made against a President in history, and a press conference is not the time and place to discuss it? The press would never allow a President to get away with saying a PRESS CONFERENCE is "not the time or place." Why do they let the Federal Reserve Chairman get away with it? It is too important. Keep asking him, over and over, to tell him how important an issue …

Waller yells... "Pick me, pick me!" *FED VOTES 10-2 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE *FED SAYS GOVERNORS WALLER, MIRAN DISSENT IN FAVOR OF 25 BPS CUT Economists and former Fed Governors on TV argue that Chris Waller's dissent was not politically motivated to increase his chances of being picked as Fed Chairman by Trump. Prediction market traders disagree. https://t.co/p3qS10YGtd

Below is the full transcript from Powell's video statement released on January 11. This SHOULD dominate the Q&A of the Fed meeting. Although I think it will probably not. It is an extraordinary charge that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is accusing the President of using the Justice Department try to influence his decisions about monetary policy. It takes precedence over the typical questions about the state of the economy and economic indicators. Powell has not spoken publicly since this video. Asking him to explain it more is entirely appropriate, and I would argue, more important than his outlook for the economy. Qs What evidence …

We were told last week (we have been saying since Thanksgiving) that the decision on the Fed chair has been made and will be announced shortly. Bessent headlines from this morning My take ... they are stuck, not sure what to do. Sounds like no announcement anytime soon. They might have to hold their nose, pick one, and immediately threaten them with getting fired or indicted if they waver from Trump's desire to cut the federal funds rate to 1%. *BESSENT: SPOKE WITH TRUMP ON FED CHAIR ON PLANE BACK FROM IOWA *BESSENT: HAD LONG DISCUSSION ON PLANE WITH TRUMP ON FED CHAIR *BESSENT: HAVEN'T NARROWED DOWN OR EXPANDED POOL FOR FED CHAIR *BES…

The bottom panel shows the @polymarket implied probability that "someone else" ("door #5") will be the next Fed chairman. It is rising fast now and the only uptrend, but still only 13%. (It is 100% minus the sum of the top panel). The story below explains why. @MarkHalperin https://t.co/AnG7uzJhA4

K-shape https://t.co/WDHgcGqEeS

What great timing! It's almost like he knew this would happen!!! --- Red headlines on Bloomberg earlier this AM *UNITEDHEALTH, CVS SINK MORE THAN 9% ON MEDICARE RATES REPORT *UNITEDHEALTH SINKS 16% AT OPEN, HUMANA FALLS 17%, CVS DROPS 11% https://t.co/CUoEpOQi0D

iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the $56B ETF that holds physical Silver, saw booming volume today. https://t.co/GE0ruVC3lP Even more impressive is its total value traded (turnover) today of over $39B. https://t.co/uO4s9S1XPI

I learned today that Doug Ramsay of @LeutholdGroup passed away this weekend. We were friends for over 25 years, and he was a great family man and analyst. I will miss you.

The chart below is the Polymarket betting on another government shutdown on January 31. It has spiked from 9% to 74% today in reaction to the Border Patrol shooting in Minneapolis. The thought is that this latest event will embolden the Senate Democrats to filibuster its passage (thus shutting down the government) in an effort to defund, or significantly alter, ICE/CBP's current mission. Background On November 12th, a continuing resolution was passed to reopen the government, which had been shut down since September 30th. That continuing resolution ends on January 30th. To keep the government open past January 30th, a budget or another con…

Rieder is now the leader. https://t.co/O5Vsn4rkoA

Maybe the guy is Rieder (green). https://t.co/6tlrrueEaf

Rick Rieder (green) rallying hard on Polymarket. https://t.co/6U1bLGCgji

Remind me again why more cut rates are needed?

@EricBalchunas @DeepCovering @DREZDNN 2/2 Every $BTC bull market has a theme. Is the adoption theme of 2023 to 2025 over? As noted above, the adoption announcements are not working anymore. So, do we need a new theme? If so, what is it? And do we need a bigger winter to “reset” for the next $BTC summer? https://t.co/vfm6cKyTlS

This is why it is taking Trump months to pick a Fed Chair. He doesn't trust them to cut the funds rate to 1%. And why he may start looking elsewhere.

@DREZDNN @EricBalchunas The chart says $84.7k

@DREZDNN @EricBalchunas If $BTC sinks under $85k again, was the post above a bad call? So many of these calls are more about perception than actual price action. If it sinks under $85k again, 2 months later, you can still credibly argue it was a bad call. And you can credibly argue it wasn’t.

I've been arguing this for months. Trump does not like any of his "finalists" for Fed Chairman. He is still looking. If he picks one of the finalists, it's because he cannot find anyone better. There is really only one person who meets his criteria: himself. @MarkHalperin

In other news ... Powell seems to be itching for a fight with Trump. From Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plans to attend Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing over the attempted dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump, according to a person familiar with the situation Bessent weighed in: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his plans to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the president’s attempt to dismiss a central bank governor. “I actually think that’s a mistake, because if you’re trying not to politicize the Fed, for the Fed chair to be sitting ther…