Jim Bianco

*S&P 500 RISES 1%, SET TO ERASE LOSSES SINCE IRAN WAR BEGAN

@ameliaIra8 Silicon Valley VC has plenty of money to fund startups.

Last night, risk markets opened down on "deal off." Over the last 24 hours, risk markets rebounded on "deal on." I look forward to tomorrow.

@myStankFace I address the Suadi bypass here. tl:dr - way overstated. https://t.co/S9JKzHihoq

@txgermanbre $200 crude

@ameliaIra8 Legacy software companies still have higher costs that they have not eliminated. New entrants don't have this problem

@wallstnomads Yes, they will break all speed records, and these pipelines will be built in 2 to 3 years.

@wallstnomads It will take years to build hundreds of miles of pipelines to bypass the SoH.

@LibertarianJzus Do you think rental car companies care about the brand power of their accounting software that is specifically designed for their unique business? Whether it properly manages our books and how much it costs are the considerations. Overstating brand power.

Private credit was always on a search for companies that had a big moat (meaning competitors could not easily disrupt them) and stable cash flows. For years companies that fit this criteria were Software/SaaS companies. There are tens of thousands of them that makes specialized software for every industry and a multitude of applications. So private credit funds have a big weighting in Software/SaaS companies. Then AI came and disrupted the Software/SaaS industry. Now the cost of making software is collapsing towards zero and the fear is these companies are going to get disrupted by low cost entrants (smaller/no moat) offering the same Softw…

@Goldfiinger Doesn’t work that way, everyone runs a well as fast as possible. The only wells that can have that kind of variable speed are in the Middle East and they’re blocked by the SoH.

Before the war, the world was producing about 100M barrels of oil a day, and consuming about 100M barrels of oil a day. Now the world is producing somewhere between 85M and 90M barrels of oil a day. That means somebody has to stop consuming 10M to 15M barrels of oil a day. Economists call this demand destruction. The market has a very efficient way to get to this reduced level of demand, it raises the price forcing marginal buyers to stop consuming oil. But if government subsidize the current high price of oil, the demand does not change and the market price has to go higher in order to get that demand destruction. I’m all in favor of low…

@kkmaway time for a haircut then

@AnthonyFatseas A Panamax tanker (the largest that can go through the canal) can hold 500k barrels of oil. A VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) can carry 2M barrels.

@the_negative01 Umm, there was a war ... Russia/Ukraine began in 2022.

*TRUMP: I DOUBT CHINA WOULD SEND IRAN SHOULDER MISSILES *TRUMP: IF I CATCH CHINA GIVING IRAN ARMS, IT'D GET 50% TARIFF *TRUMP'S TELEPHONE INTERVIEW W/ FOX NEWS ENDS

Lots of posts in my feed crowing that empty tankers are sailing to the US for crude oil. I guess they forgot that this means demand for US crude and higher prices. Go to your local gas station and see if you can spark a "U-S-A" chant at the pumps. Let us know how it goes.

*TRUMP SAYS US WILL BEGIN BLOCKADE OF SHIPS TO AND FROM HORMUZ The shipping tourists can stop counting ships. It is now zero. https://t.co/1AQGj4UeEF

Sounds like the war is back on.

No one can make money when prices are soaring and collapse by $20 in a few days.

My working hypothesis is that the extreme volatility in the energy markets has largely led to losses. No one can make money when prices are soaring and collapse by $20 in a few days. --- https://t.co/S30XPZwVcq Vitol Group is reorganizing its derivatives team in London, just weeks after the energy trading giant incurred significant mark-to-market losses in the early days of the Iran war, according to people familiar with the matter.

https://t.co/BrBdceeoER Interesting take by Bloomberg: A US destroyer was seen moving from Fujairah toward the waterway, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said separately. Iran’s armed forces monitored it and conveyed this to the US via Pakistani mediators, the news agency said. The US vessel returned from the strait after Tehran warned that it would be targeted, according to Fars.

A couple of bold tankers making a run for it betting Iran will not attempt to stop them in the middle of the talks? Or, is the Strait finally opening up. Unless this talks produce a deal in the next 24 to 48 hours, I’ll go with the former.

While everyone is focused on variations of this chart, the story reposted below might be more important. Essentially, only Iranian-linked ships are passing through the Strait; no one else. https://t.co/SvcJA7aoSC

1/2 The ceasefire is holding for a second day. Now comes the talks in Pakistan this weekend. https://t.co/5eNrGiPQPH 2/2 But no signs of shipping moving ... yet??? https://t.co/YDvw25IyYP

This chart starts 10/28/25, the all-time high of the SaaS index (blue). SaaS is now -40%, while the SPX is -1% (black). Over the last 3 days, the power/fear of Mythos (repost) has SaaS at -11.46%, -5.15% today (bottom panel), the worst decline of the entire SaaSocalypse. https://t.co/qkaGxKM31G Top 10 SaaS Index (wgt) 1PANW (Palo Alto Networks)4.69% 2CRWD (CrowdStrike)4.44% 3PLTR (Palantir)4.35% 4SNPS (Synopsys)4.30% 5MSFT (Microsoft)4.20% 6CRM (Salesforce)4.11% 7ADBE (Adobe)4.04% 8INTU (Intuit)3.99% 9NOW (ServiceNow)3.92% 10 APP (AppLovin)3.73%

The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes it solely to the war, since 98% of their surveys were conducted before the April 7th ceasefire announcement. I find this explanation wanting. Since 1952, we've had our share of wars and 9/11. Yet the conflict has produced a 74-year low among consumers, but only a 3% correction in the stock market. Does this make sense? Regarding the current conflict, is it worse than the Korean War, the histor…

We started the week with the President threatening to end a civilization. We ended the week with a new AI model that might end civilization (Anthropic's Mythos). So, OF COURSE, the S&P 500 has been up 7 days in a row, adding 2.5%. Never bet on the end of the world It will only happen once, and when it does, no one will be around to pay you.

Apparently, Iran is not done shooting at their neighbors (headlines crossing in the last hour) *KUWAIT NATIONAL GUARD SAYS ONE OF ITS SITES TARGETED BY DRONE *CORRECT: KUWAIT SAYS CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING DRONE ATTACKS *KUWAIT NATIONAL GUARD SAYS ATTACK RESULTED IN SEVERE DAMAGES

Me on Bloomberg TV this morning https://t.co/zdyxmSkULL