Jim Bianco

I will be on @CNBCFastMoney around 4:10 CT, about 35 minutes from now

Please explain to me like I’m 5 or a golden retriever why stopping the humanitarian effort to get ships out but keep the blockade going is what Iran wants and we happily agree to?

Iran is jamming the AIS (or GPS) signals of shipping. Notice what happens to it below, and how they jump around and then disappear.

Signaling no restart to the war? No War No Peace No Shipping No Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, or Helium.

*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.76%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998 -- On September 27, 2022, the 30-year UK hit 4.99%. This was so intolerable that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign. Today, the UK's 30-year yield is 77 bps higher. https://t.co/NotUU2B1Gv

https://t.co/rmglz0wXlO

Will China allow Trump to vet its models?

Oil's impact on the bond market I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around. That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields). https://t.co/oUEp8B4rEQ

What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs. The December contract is now signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven months. https://t.co/WyuvlhVTA9

July Brent Crude Oil gyrations over the last 24 hours on every War headline. https://t.co/NguXR9zWen

The 30-year yield is now 8 bps away from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/UQgGB4AGiL

This is from the Former head (CEO) of Fars News Agency (a major state-aligned, hardline Iranian news outlet often linked to the IRGC) He says they will sink American Aircraft Carriers that approach the Strait of Hormuz. No, I do not worry about this threat. Rather, it calls into question this statement that Trump posted two hours ago ... I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. --- Really?

So, this does not mean naval escorts will start tomorrow.

Apparently, Trump did NOT announce the Navy will start escorting ships through the Strait tomorrow (even though that is what he posted two hours ago). This might explain why markets are hardly moving on this news ... he effectively announced nothing (and furthered a White House "stuck" about what to do).

While Trump claims the move is "humanitarian," it is a clear U.S. challenge to Tehran's effort to control the strait. An Iranian military response could spark a confrontation or even an escalation back to war. It was not immediately clear whether this move was coordinated with Iran in any way. Iranian officials did not immediately respond publicly to Trump's announcement.

Big news from Trump about 20 minutes ago (and ~90 minutes before the market reopens on Sunday night in Asia): The US will start Naval Escorts called "Operation Protect Freedom" tomorrow! As I noted in the repost below (from Friday), the US was "stuck" until the circumstances changed. It now seems they are about to change tomorrow! Some possible outcomes (hoping for #1 or #2, fearing #3 and #4) 1. US escorts ships out, Iran does nothing, this is over 2. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships that the US can repel, this is over 3. US escorts ships out, Iran fires on ships and hits them, or they hit a mine. The image of burning ships is…

2/4 This is Iran's Strategy. https://t.co/XUQ7zKGqTr 3/4 And this is the result that works in their favor. https://t.co/eyrvCjbcjU 4/4 And this is the "mechanism" that makes their strategy work. https://t.co/gU1RshVExG

The US Military estimates it has spent $25B prosecuting the war since February 28 … American motorist have spent almost the same.

The saving rate is income minus disposable spending. It does NOT include investment performance (such as stock or housing prices rising). So, I view the saving rate as a sentiment indicator. It is low because households don't need to hold back spending for savings. Their stock ETFs and Zillow estimates are "saving" for them. So ... spend away. Question: Is this a wise approach to saving right now?

A fill-up (20 gallons) now costs an extra $26. https://t.co/Cnc4qXXfzA

*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny

They are treating Mythos like a doomsday machine. Bear in mind that every lab will have a similar model in a few months, including the Chinese. *ANTHROPIC PROPOSED LETTING 70 ADDITIONAL COS USE MYTHOS: WSJ *WHITE HOUSE OPPOSES ANTHROPIC PLAN TO EXPAND MYTHOS ACCESS: WSJ

Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ

*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb

I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)

New High https://t.co/fuvwFDZxYs

Last week, the UAE asked for swap lines with the Fed/Treasury. This week, they leave OPEC+. While the world asks who will blink first, the US or Iran ... maybe the answer is the UAE. The economic pain the UAE is under is intolerable for them, worse than that of Iran.

https://t.co/KbQq6Lzy4l

From the WSJ ... So, No War No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium

A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad https://t.co/IS4MCRm6PB