Raoul Pal

I used to think the economic singularity hits in 2032. I think that's too far away now. By 2030, the entire economic system will have changed. GDP used to run on two things: population growth and productivity. But we're about to go from a restricted population of 9 billion people to an infinite population of economic actors. We're going to put AGI brains into humanoid robots that are more dextrous, faster, stronger AND fitter than us with smarter brains. That to me is an entirely new species. And they're coming into the workforce very soon. Most forecasts being written right now still assumes the workforce stays human. That one assumptio…

@TgMacro It's all true boss

This is criminal. Tony had 30 years of experience and Jared the same. They are traders' traders. You'll learn a shit ton from them

@MikeSkiXRP It's a box

@GarryB1rd I totally understand

Never thought I'd be at a BTS concert but here we are, and the crowd is unreal.. https://t.co/9aR4tPbohP

One of the most extraordinary things is the Real Vision Globe, where it shows where all the members are all across the world. It's totally amazing. 150,000 people literally in every country you can imagine

It's all so fucking obvious and people are still desperate to trade it away. Look at everything that's happening right now… Banks and asset managers are moving their products onto blockchain rails and everywhere you look people are building AI agents. Liquidity is flowing, the Clarity Act is coming and the geopolitical noise looks like it might finally settle. It's all right in front of us. And the correct move is the boring one. Buy a handful of the highest-quality L1s, the ones capturing the real economic activity, and hold. That's the whole game right there. The people trying to be clever and trade this cycle are the ones who’ll event…

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The world as we've known it has been running on basically the same operating system for billions of years. Now in the space of a few years everything's speeding up faster than ever before. Compute and intelligence are accelerating faster than institutions, regulations, and the old social order can absorb. So it all feels like it's coming apart. Politics, geopolitics, media, trust in the old systems… They’re too slow for the speed the world runs at now. It feels like destruction but it's construction. The old applications are composting down, and the new system is being built on top. This is the biggest fourth turning of all time. The comp…

Everything's coming onchain. Stablecoins, RWAs… the whole financial system is rebuilding itself on crypto rails. And the way you own that is stupidly simple. Just buy the L1s it all runs on. This is the universal basic equity layer for all of us. If the biggest parts of the economy get handed to AI and agents, and they transact on crypto rails, then owning the L1s means you own a piece of their success. We never got that with the internet. Retail never got handed a slice of the plumbing. This time it's just sitting there, listed. There's no excuse not to do this. The economy's about to be run by AI agents transacting on these exact rails…

GDP as we know it will be obsolete by 2030. I don't make calls like this lightly, but the way we've measured economies is about to stop working because the equation itself is changing. You've heard me talk about the magic formula. It comes down to how many people are working, what they're producing, and what they can borrow on top of that. That's the whole story of the economy right there. But look at what's coming into the equation. Humans are still a big chunk of it but now you've got robots, AI, energy density, and compute efficiency all piled on top. Each one is heading straight up the exponential curve and none of them fit inside the …

@sares_at 🙏

Working on this month's portfolio update for The Exponentialist paid subscribers... walking through exactly how I'm positioning around The Exponential Age thesis. And I just published a free article - Post Cards from the Universal Code https://t.co/KB7nPaXBDZ Check it out for free but there is a Founding price offer that you really should take advantage of if you're interested in The Exponential Age and the economic singularity. Founding pricing ($699/year) closes midnight ET Sunday. After that it's $899. https://t.co/IsnvQVAWo6%22

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I sat down with Blue Macellari, who runs digital assets at T. Rowe Price. Six months ago nobody called asking about tokenization. Now she's doing board teach-ins most weeks... adoption is invisible until it isn't. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/QZceB4dhQ6

AI is the largest deflationary force in human history. If it plays out the way I think it will, we get something we haven't felt in a very long time... people feeling richer for the first time in decades. You can hand out subsidies, cut taxes, and print money but none of it lifts real living standards. The only thing that has ever moved that needle is a productivity boom big enough to collapse debasement into abundance. Now, I've been through enough cycles to know this won't be clean... there’ll be political fights, sectors slowing while others rip higher, and industries stuck on the wrong side of the cycle. But the setup is real and once…

@BittelJulien Good luck with everything. Its been quite the ride!

Sui basecamp is always a great event! Looking forward to it this year in Singapore..

AI and robots are our way out of the debt trap. I know that sounds insane… but when you play it through, it's the only story that adds up. Every economy on earth runs on population plus productivity plus debt. When the first two stall, the only lever left is to pile on debt to hold the line. That's why debt to GDP has climbed across the developed world for decades, and no policy or austerity package has ever managed to stop it. But here's what changes it. AI and robots become the new workforce… One that doesn't age or retire, and never asks for a raise or a pension. When this scales productivity moves again, GDP outgrows debt, and debt to…

Nobody is ready for this number the median American worker has $955 saved for retirement not 955k. 955 dollars… When it comes to this conversation people tend to quote the average. But a handful of rich savers drag the average up and hide the fact that the guy in the middle has basically nothing. and here's what drives me mad... everyone calls this a discipline problem. "should've saved more" But you cannot save your way out of this The whole plan was: earn a wage, buy assets and hold for 40 years. It worked when wages kept up with assets. they don't anymore. wages have lost HALF their purchasing power vs the S&P since 2008 So you're t…

The aim, every business cycle, is to build more intelligence... more GDP. 1. Population is the raw compute, the nodes in the network. 2. Productivity is the intelligence each of those nodes generates. 3. Debt is the energy you pump in when the first two stop carrying the load. When the first two are firing, the economy compounds. When they stall, debt takes over, and the debasement that follows is what holds the whole thing together. That's most of the developed world since 2008. In a debasing economy capital flows almost entirely to two places... technology and crypto. They're the only things that still scale economic intelligence, so the…

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In the next year, AI will be smarter than all of us. There'll be outliers of course… Some people will still be ahead in specific corners, because our thinking is strange in ways models can’t reproduce. We're messy compute and occasionally we'll lands somewhere a machine can't. But these are exceptions. The Exponential Age is hitting the steep part of its curve and you can already see it. Take Anthropic for eg. Their revenue is scaling beyond Metcalfe’s Law into Reed's Law, making it the fastest growing revenue line of any company in human history. Ludicrous when you think about it. And it won't stop with one company. Every one of these cu…

We can trace all of this back to World War 2. The reason your salary buys less, the reason your kids can't afford a house, the reason retirement keeps drifting out of reach comes back to one thing. Demographics. The baby boomers were the biggest generational cohort in human history, and their spending and saving habits shaped asset prices, interest rates, and policy decisions for years. Now they're retiring in numbers no economy was built to absorb. With a shrinking workforce GDP growth stalls. Governments borrow more to fund what they owe, and print more money to foot the bill… Which means the retirement you spent decades saving for is w…

We're living through the fastest period of technological change in human history. Today, David Mattin and I are bringing our research on it to a new home: Substack Welcome to The Exponentialist! 1/ The Exponentialist launched in 2023 as a premium research service inside Real Vision. That's still there... nothing about it changes. But we want this conversation to reach further, so now it's also on Substack... What it's about: AI, biotech, energy, computing... the technologies compounding fast enough to reshape markets, careers and daily life within this decade. Not hype. The actual trajectory, and what it means for you. Free subscribers g…

@iammarctheiler Compression js the highest form of intelligence 😜

@iammarctheiler Wow

@iammarctheiler What harness?

Fable 5 is still a god-tier magical wizard but those fees are getting insane to actually use it. I blow through a months credits in half a day and am racking up maybe two grand a week to use it. Not sustainable... issue is no other model is so suited for how I work. Urgh.