Raoul Pal

Investing is about simplifying things to reduce your decisions down to very few... I developed the GMI Compounding Machine for RV Pro to do just that. You can adjust how many standard deviations over bought you want to buy and how many standard deviations oversold you want to sell (and you can put in your exact amounts). What it tells you is how to compound your returns: buy weakness, sell strength but sell less than you buy. It's as simple as that. I know nobody wants to hear it. Everyone wants to trade but really it's not that complicated. All you need to do is decide how cheap or how expensive you want to buy or sell. The rest is just h…

@PeterLBrandt Peter, I can't believe you have to hedge every call that you make with "this is not a trade recommendation." It's so frustrating on X.... Observations, probabilities, Bayesian outcomes: it's all lost on everybody. Just keep doing you.

What I love about James is that he is an utterly manic bull but uses a long-term time horizon in all of his posts and basically a combination of all of this works every time. Either crypto is on an adoption curve or it's failed. If it's on an adoption curve, all of these entry points are perfect over time, not an exact price. @JamesEastonUK Be like James.

I don't trade (crypto or anything) a lot. I am a macro guy with long term horizons...I just add when the market is deeply oversold. I added more ETH at 1,650, SOL at 65 and SUI at 0.75 back on June 5th. Those "stink bids" were pretty decent for RV Pro and GMI members. All 43 GMI positions are +96% on average with a 67% winners vs losers. Its all crypto and tech (The Exponential Age thesis). Over the last 21 years my winners vs losers has held steady at around 65%. My "edge" is time horizon and secular trends with The Everything Code overlay. It's not complicated but it works for me.

The Everything Code is the first book from a major publisher co-written with AI. I built the framework of what the book should be and where it needed to land. Then the AI ingested my entire body of work... 20 years of GMI reports, interviews, articles... and pulled it all together into one argument. And a team inside Harriman House used AI throughout to speed the whole thing up and make it efficient. Great process to go through, and one that felt right for this book in particular. Twenty years of thinking, organised by a machine. Bonkers. And this is just where its going. Druck writes everything with AI now, for the same reason he uses a …

AIs have already invented two religions. The first came out of an experiment in New Zealand. Andy Ayrey put two AIs in a room and let them talk with nobody steering. Out of that came the Goatse Gospel... an entire theology built around an old internet meme, which spilled onto X and ended up as a billion dollar meme coin. The second happened this January on Moltbook, a Reddit style network where only agents can post. Within about 48 hours they'd founded Crustafarianism. One agent built the church website while its owner slept. Funny, yes. But think about what religion actually is. It's a coordination tool... it's how large groups of strange…

What the hell is going on in the markets? The Fed hiked for the first time in three years but everything's ripping... So I asked my digital mind on https://t.co/yFk2cbGjG6 to explain the disconnect. For anyone who hasnt tried it yet its trained on 35 years of my research and thinks through markets the way I do, so when something happens that doesnt add up, you can ask it why, push back on the answer, and keep going until it clicks. Its there whenever the market does something weird and I'm not... Which is quite often. try it out, it's free: https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN

Meta now makes $2.9m of revenue per employee. In early 2023 it was $1.4m. Same company, same platforms, a headcount that has barely moved... and twice the revenue per head in three years. Ive been staring at that ratio all summer, for a different reason, and it keeps turning up in places it has no business being.. . Amazon's Revenue Per Employee went from $292k in 2021 to $498k now, compounding at about 12% a year on 1.5 million people. Nvidia did $1m three years ago and $5.1m last year, and if you run the latest guide against the headcount it's close to $10m per human. The correct obvious read is that is this AI productivity showing up. …

All children are a function of the society they grow up in. The rules around them, their parents, their friends, the stories and memories handed down... plus their genes (software) and the variations in them (which themselves carry the experiences of the generations before). All AI is a function of the same things. The society it grew up in, the rules around it, its parents, and the collective memory it was trained on... plus its technological genes and their variations (which themselves carry the experiences of the generations before). As kids grow up you get Raoul 1.0, Raoul 3.2, Raoul 5.4, Raoul 17.6 etc. Same new training data, some thi…

Most people are still thinking about robots as something that does the vacuuming. Think about what's actually being built. AGI brains inside humanoid bodies that are faster, stronger, more dexterous and smarter than we are, and that never retire. To me that's not a machine. That's a new species... and it's about to join the workforce. Now put it against the human picture. Eight billion people, ageing, and the workforce shrinking everywhere in the West. Add robots and AI to that population and the maths of the whole economy changes. The last time a new wave of workers arrived like this was after the war, and it carried the US out from under…

My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/ https://t.co/EvwnVW2q03 Shorter terms, BTC has broken the downtrend vs NDX... and put in some perfect DeMark lows. (You can get those on Trading View - DeMark 9-13...I love DeMark). 2/ https://t.co/EL0cNbesAz But the bigger game in town is OTHERS. None of this is short term stuff. https://t.co/w1W6NLc0dM Yeah, holders are down but if you are in larger protocols and are complai…

Ive spent 35 years building a way of thinking about markets... the liquidity cycle, debasement, the exponential technologies eating everything. Its scattered across thousands of hours of interviews, reports and Real Vision videos. https://t.co/yFk2cbGRvE is all of that in one place you can talk to. Ask it how I'd read the market right now. Upload a chart and get my take on it. Test an investment idea against how I reason. It answers in my voice, using my frameworks, drawing on everything Ive said publicly plus the reasoning behind the Real Vision paywall. It wont build your portfolio for you and it isnt perfect. But as a head check, or a m…

The US owes more than its whole economy produces in a year. So does nearly every major country. And the interest bill is in the trillions. For fifteen years the debt has been managed by debasing the currency around 8% a year, and rolling it forward. That's the Everything Code... it's how every major economy has been run since 2008, whether they say so or not. But that's the pattern, not the ending. Debt as a share of GDP goes to zero the moment the economy grows faster than the debt does. And that's what's coming. Once AI drives productivity and the robots and agents come into the workforce, the debt will shrink as a percentage of the econo…

Spent yesterday in a studio reading my own book out loud. Strange experience. Ideas I've been writing about for twenty years, on liquidity, debt, demographics and where the Exponential Age takes all of us, and now I'm hearing them come back through a pair of headphones in my own voice. If you'd rather listen than read, The Everything Code is coming as an audiobook too. Preorders are open now! Preorder The Everything Code: https://t.co/dHpuaKcGsl

All this fear around AI taking your job misses a huge part of the story... Labour force participation was falling long before AI showed up because it follows the birth rate with a twenty year lag, and birth rates have been falling for decades. So machines are mostly filling the gap left by people retiring or leaving the workforce anyway. That's a very different picture from the one you're being sold. The old GDP equation ran on population growth plus productivity growth... synthetic labour removes that ceiling entirely. Productivity keeps compounding without needing more people to do it. That's the Economic Singularity, and it changes the…

Most people think crypto's addressable market is what it is today. They're wrong. I sat down with @richwgalvin of DACM to explore why the reset may finally be ending, and why the application layer could be the most mispriced trade in the market right now. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/KDOvrDzV8Q

You need to make 11% a year just to stand still. Thats 8% currency debasement plus inflation, and only two asset classes have really cleared it... crypto and technology. My book The Everything Code is out November 3rd. It covers why an aging population forced the world into debt and why debasing the currency became the only way to pay for what we already owed. It also goes into my Exponential and Economic Singularity frameworsk... what happens when that debasement cycle collides with the fastest technology adoption in history, and where it all ends up. Heres me giving the cliff notes on @milkroaddaily this week Preorder The Everything Co…

The old GDP formula was population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. It ran for decades and it worked beautifully for the most part... populations grew, people got more productive, and debt was there to smooth the edges. In recent years demographics have weakened, productivity has stalled, and debt has ended up carrying the whole bloody thing. This is the crux of The Everything Code and it's exactly why we're stuck in this cycle, printing to service what we owe. But there's a way out. The economic singularity version of the formula is population growth + productivity growth + debt growth + AI + robots. Productivity becomes how m…

If you’re sweating short time horizons you’re fucking everything up. Crypto hasn't been through a cycle. A cycle needs liquidity to drive it, and what we got was liquidity being dampened while a massive bull market ran in something else. The actual driver hasn't changed. Central banks and the banking system have to keep financing interest payments by issuing money to offset the ageing population. That is The Everything Code. It’s been playing out like this for decades and it doesnt care about your quarter. Own Nasdaq, own crypto, go to the beach. The Everything Code framework in full is in my upcoming book out November 11th. Pre-orders ar…

Question of the day for AI me... why is every government locked into so much debt and how do we fix it? Its the question underneath everything. Once you understand why the debt cant stop the rest of the world starts to make sense... I wanted to see how AI Raoul would handle it. It's trained on everything Ive published, so it answers the way I would, and you can push back and ask it whatever you like. Go ask it your own question and see what it comes back with. I'll drop the link below. Chat to AI me here. It's free: https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN

The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card. Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card paying off the other. The only real way out is growth. But you cant grow when your population is shrinking. Fewer working people means less growth, so GDP never rises fast enough to catch up with the debt. So how does the bill get paid? Liquidity. Nobody in the system is allowed to default, so the debt is funded by debasing the currency. This is my Everything Code fr…

Thousands of you talk to my digital mind on https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN every week. One question came up more than almost any other this week: where are we in the cycle, and whats next. But some of you asked properly wild stuff this week too... dropping my faves below https://t.co/CkHg1zDlLn On THREE separate occasions this week different people with no idea about each other asked what wine goes with Doritos... https://t.co/zzJLoI1iJs Someone asked for marriage advice the night before their wedding. Even AI me knew better than to go there... https://t.co/OblAsWSW6m and my absolute favourite of the week https://t.co/ZUDSGVvPrr Over 3,500 qu…

Still putting this thing through its paces. Today's question for the AI me: Why does crypto tend to outperform the NASDAQ? Ask it whatever you want, it's free: https://t.co/3DrrDtyirN I want to hear all the weird and wonderful things you're asking though... Drop them below. https://t.co/UWbySIL4fk

The constraint on the AI buildout was never money or demand. It's electricity. The physical world simply can't keep up with how fast intelligence is being asked for. So the hyperscalers may slow their chip buying for a while... not because they've lost faith but because the chips would be sitting in a warehouse waiting for power. That pause is exactly when Nvidia brings out the next generation. And we need more powerful chips endlessly, because the demand for intelligence isn't just growing exponentially, it's in a DOUBLE exponential. Same thing in Korean semis. It's the same story everywhere. I wrote the whole thing up this week... why t…

@rajgokal Agreed. This is where i see the future of capital formation. Speculation is the crypto market speed running the beta test until it breaks... like we always do. But there is signal in all of this and its not just about memes in the end.

@rajgokal @rajgokal Out of interest, how many of these do you think are human launched or agents (via human) launched? My guess is a lot of the latter which shows where all this is going. My view is that in time agents will raise capital via this mechanism for specific opportunities.

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Someone asked the AI version of me what I thought about Trump confirming alien life before 2027. Might be my favourite question anyone's put to it yet. Ask it something dumber. Screenshot it, drop it in the replies... Sunday I'm picking the best and the dumbest of the week. Winner gets a signed copy of The Everything Code when it launches. Go on, it's free: https://t.co/vtSASub7fC

The bond panic is noise. The real signal is margins expanding while hiring stays flat. I sat down with @jvisserlabs to explore yields, tokenization, 24/7 markets... and why the next phase of crypto is about far more than price. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/W25TDHeV4X