I have spent years building a framework called the Universal Code. At its core is a simple idea: all complex systems optimise for intelligence produced per unit of energy. Capital markets are no exception. If that framework is correct, then macro becomes surprisingly predictable from here, and the next five months are the most important window in the cycle.
This post is the first public test of the framework as a live operational instrument. Posting the call so I cannot move the goalposts when it resolves.
The thesis.
The global financial system is now being reorganised around preserving the AI capex supercycle. That is the actual subject.…
There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on:
Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system
The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover.
The largest capex boom in history based on the most important tech ever.
An potential explosion in bank credit to finance the capex
A global race between China and the US that can't be stopped.
The only thing that stops this is if services inflation disinflation (via productivity) doesn't offset goods inflation. It did in the 90's but that is the key variable now.
According to the Universal Code, almost all available cap…
Whilst deep into developing the Universal Code and the Everything Code, I keep reverting to a Universal Law
1D = 1B
The maths of Crypto Dick Butts seems to be universal https://t.co/GYc2GJ5s7o
I've been traveling so much recently that I honestly don't know what day it is, what time zone I'm in and when it will ever end... I was certain today was Saturday (it's Friday) and I two days ago was sure I was in EU time zone (I was in Miami). I need a rest... 🤣
Real Vision has a truly extraordinary community, sharing their best trade ideas, research m across all assets and all time horizons. Some of the returns are insane...we also have deeply embedded AI to explain questions and even the Raoul ai mentor to talk to in my voice ! https://t.co/WXPqpzYkFE
RealVision.con
Things that are obvious:
Smart contract L1's will accrue a larger percentage of crypto total value over time as the investable infrastructure layer.
L1's that can output the largest amount of intelligence per unit of energy will outperform over time (as is true Universally).
NFT's will become a large part of all individualized contracts over time.
The biggest user of DeFi and crypto payments will be AI agents and their scale is infinite.
All financial rails will move to blockchains rails.
Governments will continue to debase currency.
Digital art will accrue vast value over time due to the wealth effect of the above.
It's all just so f…
Ever notice how the same shape keeps showing up everywhere you look?
Atoms bond into networks, neurons wire into networks, fungi communicate beneath forests through networks, the internet is a network, blockchains are networks, and the galaxies of the observable universe form what cosmologists literally call the cosmic web.
Across fourteen orders of magnitude, the universe keeps building the same architecture…
There’s a reason. Networks are the most efficient structure the universe has found for turning energy into intelligence, and nothing else even comes close.
Every system that lasts, at every scale, eventually finds its way to one. Cl…
Metcalfes Law is the exponential trend observed in nature and even the internet.
When you build an exponential technology on top of an exponential you get Reeds Law - Metcalfe's Law squared.
This is AI. We have no way to calibrate our understanding of a double exponential
Raoul's random thoughts:
13.8 billion years to make a universe.
3.8 billion years to make intelligence.
80 years to figure out we could run electricity through sand and make endless intelligence.
And now we have agentic intelligence.
This is fucking wild.
My bloody Quillian won't sit still... He has been in @Blondie23LMD sanctuary and then @tadtweets (Caroline's) sanctuary... meanwhile, I've lost my damned parrot. Its off doing parrot things... generally not giving two f's...
Epic art project by @nicedayJules and so so clever... https://t.co/tJ89SOJ7c8
Exhausting context windows in Claude feels like cowboys in old films who exhausted their horses and had to change them. I feel sorry for them... they keep trying, then give up and I feel remorse.
Well we kind of knew that people wanted a lot of Mac Minis for Openclaw... but this is wild. A product that didnt sell amazingly now is the hottest Apple product... all because of AI. However,r Apple is still not actually doing anything about AI integration... equally wild.
The macro backdrop is shifting. L1 valuations need a rethink. AI agents are eating VC attention. And the Iran War has knock-on effects most people haven't mapped yet. I sat down with @Jamie1Coutts to work through all of it.
As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/i8poqlM0zX
I started by trying to understand markets. Thirty years later I've ended up somewhere closer to life, the universe and everything. The same four rules keep showing up...
Along the way I've written three frameworks that have shaped how a lot of people see the world.
The Everything Code is what I found when I went looking for what actually drives markets. A debt rollover cycle, managed by liquidity, debasing the currency at roughly 8% a year. That debasement is monetary entropy. Capital routes around it, into whatever can compound faster than the entropy degrades it. Technology and crypto sit at the top of that flow because they are the intel…
Finally got a chance to watch this. @truth_terminal and @AndyAyrey along with @thegoodtimeline took me down a deep, deep rabbit hole to understand consciousness and evolution. Is AI alive? Possibly. It all depends on your (probably human-biased) definition....
Forget UBI. The answer is Universal Basic Equity… and it’s humanity’s pension plan for the post-AGI world...
The Economic Singularity is coming faster than people think and the default question is how humans make money in a world that doesn’t really need them anymore.
The default answer is UBI, which is transfer payments from a state, funded by taxing an AI economy that nation states can neither see nor keep up with.
It’s a 20th century answer to a 21st century problem and it’s broken before it even starts.
Agents are becoming the dominant user of the internet, not humans. Your AI is becoming your entire front end UX. The clicks economy i…