Raoul Pal

The Economic Singularity in a nutshell https://t.co/fHIV13sceu

@CryptoJitt Worked a bit better but still keeps drifting

@TheZufus It always does

@_The_Prophet__ Exactly

The US-China AI race is a race no one can win and no one can afford to lose. Every great power competition in history was for territory, resources, or weapons. This one is the first that is for none of them. It is a race for the substrate of intelligence itself. The stakes are not geopolitical anymore. They are ontological. And here is the trap. Intelligence compounds exponentially. Slow down for a year and the other side does not slow down with you. They compound past you. A six-month lead becomes a decade gap. A decade gap becomes uncrossable. Whoever gets to ASI first owns it forever. No nation can accept that. So neither side can eas…

@Teknium Thanks boss

@fejau_inc @Shaughnessy119 Indeed. He is the font of all Hermes knowledge

@Shaughnessy119 @VentureCoinist Thanks mate

I'd love to know who has the broadest or most interesting use of Hermes agents outside of summary docs of your to do list or work specific routine tasks.Also what is the highest leverage people have on their "Brains" stack. I know many of you are doing super interesting stuff @NousResearch

A Simple Fix to the AI Energy Problem That Pays Households to Want More Data Centers...

I have been chewing on this idea from first principles for a while now, and I want to lay it out because I think it solves about four problems at once and the maths is clean... The set-up is the data centre electricity problem we are all watching. AI and robotics are going to need a vast amount of power over the coming decade, with every forecast getting revised higher every quarter as the build accelerates. Right now the cost of constructing the grid to deliver that power is landing quietly on household electricity bills. The Virginia ratepayer is paying more so OpenAI can train the next model, and that pressure is growing as the build acc…

@Rebecca98869736 The gap is the opportunity

@Rebecca98869736 TACO, Iran resolution, swap lines for Eurodollar banks to give China liquidity (and then the buy Treasuries), eSLR allowing banks to absorb more, balance sheet and more

@jenzhuscott But more output per unit of time

@toadswiback Important fact, it's an up then down market however

You think rates are going to blow up the economy, anon? You under estimate the difference it is having a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury. He knows the game, the stakes and he knows the dials. No one is going to sacrifice the midterms if they can absolutely avoid it... and they will do EVERYTHING possible to win them. Relax. It'll all be fine. Better than fine fine in fact. The liquidity spice is flowing, everything else will be dealt with.

What happens when the paper your government issues is declared a biohazard? I sat down with @Coldie to talk about crypto art, the impermanence of fiat, and why the most important artists right now are documenting the people deciding our future. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/YSd6hFoSjY

What Wall Street is Missing About Kevin Warsh...

The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve today, 54 to 45, the closest vote in the history of the institution. The press is reading it as a political story. Trump finally got his man, Democrats fought him to the wire, Fetterman crossed, the partisan divide now reaches the Fed. That is the surface. It is not the story... The real story is much larger, and almost nobody is reading it correctly. To see it you have to stop scoring the vote on a left-right scoreboard and ask a different question. Who picked Warsh, what did they buy when they picked him, and what does it mean for the next two years of markets? Why…

Every network in the universe solves for the same thing. I presented the Universal Code at @SuiNetwork Live. It's my framework covering networks, intelligence, energy, and why most people are valuing blockchains completely wrong. https://t.co/UNtXGKHuPd

The AI Supercycle is Now Reorganising Macro Policy. Here is What Happens Next.

I have spent years building a framework called the Universal Code. At its core is a simple idea: all complex systems optimise for intelligence produced per unit of energy. Capital markets are no exception. If that framework is correct, then macro becomes surprisingly predictable from here, and the next five months are the most important window in the cycle. This post is the first public test of the framework as a live operational instrument. Posting the call so I cannot move the goalposts when it resolves. The thesis. The global financial system is now being reorganised around preserving the AI capex supercycle. That is the actual subject.…

There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on: Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover. The largest capex boom in history based on the most important tech ever. An potential explosion in bank credit to finance the capex A global race between China and the US that can't be stopped. The only thing that stops this is if services inflation disinflation (via productivity) doesn't offset goods inflation. It did in the 90's but that is the key variable now. According to the Universal Code, almost all available cap…

@fitzyOG 🤣

👇 Welcome to the Exponential Age

Whilst deep into developing the Universal Code and the Everything Code, I keep reverting to a Universal Law 1D = 1B The maths of Crypto Dick Butts seems to be universal https://t.co/GYc2GJ5s7o

@OttRcott I know ! I'm too old. It's almost over... finally

@DefiDfyn @RealVision Haha

I've been traveling so much recently that I honestly don't know what day it is, what time zone I'm in and when it will ever end... I was certain today was Saturday (it's Friday) and I two days ago was sure I was in EU time zone (I was in Miami). I need a rest... 🤣

Real Vision has a truly extraordinary community, sharing their best trade ideas, research m across all assets and all time horizons. Some of the returns are insane...we also have deeply embedded AI to explain questions and even the Raoul ai mentor to talk to in my voice ! https://t.co/WXPqpzYkFE RealVision.con

This was an exceptional and inspiring conversation

@toly Must try harder ;-)

Things that are obvious: Smart contract L1's will accrue a larger percentage of crypto total value over time as the investable infrastructure layer. L1's that can output the largest amount of intelligence per unit of energy will outperform over time (as is true Universally). NFT's will become a large part of all individualized contracts over time. The biggest user of DeFi and crypto payments will be AI agents and their scale is infinite. All financial rails will move to blockchains rails. Governments will continue to debase currency. Digital art will accrue vast value over time due to the wealth effect of the above. It's all just so f…