Raoul Pal

@comodouglas @RealVision You are just not interesting enough...

You can catch up with the madness...and a smidge of alpha.

Ive added as much alpha and analysis as I could... including summer wines, why I'm terrible at everything, why @Blondie23LMD, my beautiful Blonde accomplice, has abandoned me to my own devices this week and why @RealVision has a GENERATIONAL sale on... (spoiler - our expert portfolios are up massively and we share them with everyone, but some of our members have done even better and post all their trades...)

Last call. 10 questions. $1k in USDC each. Going live at 5pm ET. https://t.co/wHHG8uDEZj

Send me your best: https://t.co/wHHG8uDEZj

@toadswiback Hahahaha. I can see the importance

Two days left to get your question in. Special Drinks with Raoul AMA on Thursday June 25th. I'm picking 10 member questions to answer live. Every question I select? $1k USDC to that member. Submit via the link below. Comments don't count. https://t.co/dF3ATuGpJH Members submit here. Not a member yet? Now's the time to join: https://t.co/wHHG8uDEZj

This Thursday, June 25 I'm picking the 10 questions that make me think the hardest. Bring your best.

It's clear Fable 5 is coming back because Opus 4.8 is nerfed so badly its utter wank. Happens every time before a model is released as they switch inference...

I have created an Exponential Age index using my Universal Code Law 1 of Output of Intelligence per Unit of Intelligence. While not yet perfect, its captures the magnitude of what is happening. We are now in a double exponential (the first ever example of Reed's Law) 1/ https://t.co/FGh4r4S41D When we break it down to The Great Race of China vs the US, China has been outperforming recently due to efficiency, along with exponentially rising intelligence... https://t.co/hHBOwpp7AU And the gap is now 0.2 months. It is not in raw intelligence, where the US leads by some 3 to 6 months but output of intelligence per unit of energy, which is key.…

@bruggeanico @audricai https://t.co/J7IrD22ofO

You guys crashed the link! New link coming hahaha

@audricai It crashed! New link coming @bruggeanico

Your question goes here. Members, sign in and drop it. Not a member yet? This is your reason. https://t.co/wHHG8uDEZj

We separated money from the state. Now we need to separate thought from it too. I sat down with @ErikVoorhees to explore AI privacy, self-sovereignty, and why the principles behind Bitcoin matter more now than ever. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/IbamGpUadV

@starveup Let's see if it works!

For me the big tell about Warsh is the focus on productivity growth. As long as he gets that he is more likely to ease or hold pat into growth and even rising headline CPI, just as Greenspan did, as it should suppress PCE inflation. My guess "productivity" will be the key word markets learn to look out for .

@Blondie23LMD @0xBriann Murica!

Anthropic has been publicly forced to bend the knee to the US government. The ban on Fable and Mythos reads like censorship, and the market will read it as the TAM of the frontier labs collapsing. Instead, I read this as the opposite, as an acceleration event... The government MUST have first access, because this is The Great Game, the game of nations over the most powerful technology ever discovered, and a technological edge of 30 to 60 days is worth everything. It's the same edge the labs already exploit internally. You build your next model with your unreleased frontier tech, never with the public one. That private head start is what kee…

@GarryB1rd @Blondie23LMD I so appreciate your help in these matters...

@Blondie23LMD Grrr

My Fable 5 just got rugged...no access :(

Giga Chad... Getting more valuable by the day... @beeple https://t.co/UHLvF6Xzn8

The biggest marketplace on earth won't be assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs. And we won't see any of it. I sat down with @jvisserlabs to map out Reed's Law, the invisible economy, the AI supercycle, and what it all means for capital markets. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/63G8esA1Qw

@saylordocs Haha... great slice and dice

Fable 5 is quite the amazing model. You give Claude Code some vague directions and it just does it like magic, understanding the full context and what you are trying to achieve. Haven't yet fully dug into how it analyzes complex scenario analysis in regular chat mode.

you can watch the video here... huge amounts of fun as ever...

Live in 2 mins... join for the madness

The Exponentialist is such a great research service and community. We've been years ahead on AI, robotics, biotech, Space, societal change, consciousness and everything else in the Exponential Age...

The next economy won't be visible to humans. AI agents will transact, settle, and coordinate value at machine speed, and the only rails built for that are crypto. In this episode of The Journeyman, I explain why the major layer 1s aren't just crypto infrastructure. They're the coordination substrate for an invisible economy that's already being built. As ever, please enjoy!