Raoul Pal

Most of the market is priced for a world that's coming to an end. Traditional software, legacy platforms, much of the SaaS layer of the S&P 500… all built on the assumption that humans will remain the primary customers. AI agents don't buy software the way we do. They don't need dashboards, subscriptions, or logins. And once the buyer changes, so does everything built around them. The investable opportunity ahead is the agentic economy… what gets built for agents as customers. That's where the next wave of capital ends up, and most people aren't positioned for it. This is the Economic Singularity showing up in the equity market. I wrote …

People say AI is expensive. Let me break it down. I pay $200 a month for Claude and get PhD-level intelligence on every subject known to humanity. Now price a human. Globally, on average, maybe $10,000 a year in food to run one brain. Plus the twenty odd years it takes to grow it first. So it's $10,000 a year for human-level compute, versus $200 a month for intelligence that clears any human on any topic. That's why it's scaling this fast. The price of human intelligence is just uneconomical compared to machines. Intelligence going from scarce to infinite breaks everything. Full framework in the article I posted this week: https://t.co/…

People can't conceive of how fast this is coming. Look at just the last few years of AI. It's moved faster than we can legislate, faster than we can debate, faster than any institution was built to handle. And that's the slow part. It only accelerates from here. That's a huge elephant in the room. Shifts this big would normally go through a democratic process. People debate it, it works its way through… But that takes decades. And we don't have decades. When the ground moves this fast and process can't keep up, governments reach for whatever knob they have. And control tends to get more centralised, not because anyone wants it, but because…

People are so concerned about AI taking their job that they can’t see the massive opportunity right in front of them. The economy that's coming won't run on wages. It'll run on infrastructure. Agents will do the work, generate value, and settle the transactions, and all of that activity will live on top of a small number of layer 1 blockchains. Own that layer, and you own a piece of everything they produce. For the first time in history, anyone with an internet connection can put 10% of their income into the same asset class as a sovereign wealth fund. This is humanity's pension plan in the post-AGI world… a way to participate in the invi…

The biggest marketplace on Earth won't be the assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs. Everything that can be digitised is getting pulled in to train the next models. Every scientific dataset, every piece of research sitting in a university, every sensor reading off every John Deere tractor in a field. All of it feeds the machine, and almost none of it is visible to us. What comes out is an agentic economy running at machine speed. You plug your data into a vault, and agents monetise it on your behalf, trading with other agents in real time, in a marketplace we never see. The company sitting on proprietary data becomes part of it wit…

The Everything Code, revisited. If youre not making 11% a year, youre not actually making money. Just treading water against debasement. Only two things really beat it over time... technology and crypto. New episode is up. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/yrWificLnK

AI has started building its own successors. It's happening right now. Humans still kick most of it off, but the models are already training the next models, and each version builds a better version faster than the last. We know what happens when something gets an advantage and the substrate is there... it proliferates incredibly fast. Soon it just runs the whole process itself. People are still debating whether AI takes your job. That's not the question. You can't compete with this intelligence at all. Next to it the human is negative value, the slowest one in the room. And this is the slowest it will ever move again. It's about to run on…

@Blondie23LMD @Toys_Soldiers @GarryB1rd We know Blondie, we know.

@Toys_Soldiers @GarryB1rd Oh you so understand. ...@Blondie23LMD

@kdean Yes sir, exactly.

@Coldie @Awful_Eye American boy, you have a lot to learn

@Coldie @Awful_Eye Blocked

@Coldie Not on this occasion. Ever.

@GarryB1rd Tread very very carefully Gary...

@GarryB1rd She is always a delight . What are you suggesting ?? 🤣

@Blondie23LMD Blocked and reported for fake AI content

Long Spanish lunch at the best paella restaurant on earth. https://t.co/MVSmvkPxFI @comodouglas record this one...

We're about to see a Cambrian explosion of new participants in financial markets and across the entire digital economy. That tells me every TAM in everything digital on this planet is wrong… We built every benchmark on human activity... how fast Facebook scaled, how fast OpenAI scaled, human eyes, human clicks, human speed. That's been the yardstick. And it's about to be useless. The new participants aren't human. They replicate at speed, communicate at speed, and don't even read the same websites we do. They don't need to. So it compounds faster and faster and faster, at a speed we can't see. We're about to lose the ability to measure …

It’s the biggest game we’ve ever played. AI is the last technology we'll ever discover, because every wave that follows will come out of it. And whoever owns the frontier doesn't just own an industry… they own the machinery that produces everything else. That's why no government can slow this down even if it wanted to. Take a step back, and the other side ends up with all the intelligence on the planet. That isn't something you’d hand to a rival. So the whole thing coalesces into a two-way race between the US and China, and every other country either picks a side or gets left behind. It's the game of nations at its highest stakes, and it…

Most workers won't be human by 2030. The economy we've been living in was built at biological speed. The same world is now being overrun by AI agents that operate a million times faster than we do. That's what I call the economic singularity… the point where what we've built stops being able to absorb what's happening, because the speed differential is too large to translate. Economics, politics, all of it was designed for a species that's about to lose its cognitive edge. We're already seeing the signs. AI now produces more words in a year than every human on Earth combined, and by 2028, it will produce more words than all of humanity ha…

@MajorDuffles https://t.co/ZH6NAP7HFs

I think Spain now holds the longest unbeaten streak in the history of international football ...38 games

@Reece_Parkinson Love that place

@NickLovesSpain Always Nick, as you point out every day

@BrauntonBoy Indeed. It's going to be insane here tonight

@alc2022 Need cubatas for this... joder

Al final! Goooooaaaaal!

The city here in Spain is so quiet. No one has any nails on their fingers....

@chigrl 🫶Always!

@chigrl Vamos España !