Gene Munster

The whole Muse conversation gets back to the value of personalized AI. I expect that in the coming years a high percentage of consumers will pay $10–20 per month for its features. If these agents ultimately become as powerful as I expect, subscriptions alone will have a material impact on $META, $AAPL, $SPCX, and, to a lesser extent, $GOOG. https://t.co/aly95IBac1

Last night, I predicted $META would be flat to down today following Meta Connect. The stock closed up 4.5%. What I missed was the significance of Zuck’s comment that Muse will be the centerpiece of Meta. That comment reveals Zuckerberg is in wartime CEO mode, willing to throw out the existing architecture and rebuild the company as an agentic, AI-first business. That drive raises the probability of success and lays the foundation for a re-rating of shares.

I expect shares of $META to be flat to down on the Meta Connect keynote, given we didn’t get much on Muse adoption. What we got that was important is Zuck’s vision that all that matters to the company long term is Muse. Bad news for $GOOG. https://t.co/ycDcS9zkt7

The most important update from Zuck's Meta Connect keynote that kicks off tonight at 7pm ET has nothing to do with wearables. Investors will be eagerly waiting for him to share any datapoints on Muse's early adoption. For all the buzz that Muse has gotten, pushing shares of $META up 20% over the past two weeks, the company has shared little. Alexandr Wang, Meta's Chief AI Officer, has said usage is running "well ahead of internal projections" and he framed it as the biggest consumer AI launch since ChatGPT, with heavier U.S. download volume than Threads, WhatsApp, and Facebook combined. So tonight will be the first time we hear from Zuckerbe…

I'm standing by my Aug 14 prediction that early next year Grok will land a top spot on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. My reiteration comes in a week that Grok lost ground on the AI leaderboard, moving from 4th on Aug 14 (Grok 4.6) to 7th place (Grok 4.7). My optimism is based on a belief that Grok 5, fully trained on Space X data, will be a game changer. $SPCX

iPhone 18 Pro model lead times continue to point to a successful cycle split. $AAPL As of this morning, lead times for Pro and Pro Max are still 4% and 3% higher than they were a year ago, which is a positive given I would've expected shorter lead times this year because of Duo cannibalizing Pro models. As a point of reference, the lead times for the 18s were 15% and 18% higher than the 17s on launch day:

For all the heat that Elon gets on product delays, it's worth noting that he effectively shipped a product on time today. In August, he predicted Grok 4.7 would go live on 9/1, which in my view is essentially the same as 9/21. This increases the odds that Grok 5, which will be a game changer (mark my words) comes out more or less on time. Elon said that would be late this year. What's going to make Grok 5 special is it's “incorporating the entire corpus of SpaceX data. Basically, all the data that SpaceX has ever produced, which is a tremendous amount over the course of a quarter century.” Translation: Grok 5 will be the most useful engine…

$META finished +11% today. That’s good news for $TSLA, $AAPL and $SPCX. We knew Muse was coming for 6 months. The stock is ripping because the broader market has now used the product and finally gets how good it is. That same rip higher dynamic is next for these mega caps, in order: $AAPL on Duo demand $AAPL on the new Siri (personalized AI) $TSLA on FSD $TSLA on Cybercab $SPCX on orbital data centers $TSLA on Optimus

Apple needs to get the word out on how good the new Siri is. I recommend a full ad campaign. I’m at a Cambridge conference today and asking people if they’ve updated to the new iOS. Most common answer: Yes Next I ask, have you used the new Siri? Most common answer: There’s a new Siri? ps: the responses have been a good reminder to me that most people don’t obsess about this stuff every day like I do. Either way, the new Siri is great, and Apple has an opportunity to let the US know.

We’re seeing a big jump in iPhone Pro model lead times today, launch day, which underscores that the splitting of the cycle is working. $AAPL P.S. The Street is way too low on Duo in FY27. https://t.co/bEQ3f1R8R5

Looks like Apple iOS servers are a little overloaded, given it's taking longer than usual to update to the new iOS 27 that came out about 1p ET. This is similar to what happened when Apple Intelligence was released in October of 2024. The new Siri AI: Cons: It takes way to long, 5-15 seconds to get a response. Pros: It's the first compelling case for personalized AI. I can have it search email and text at the same time. $AAPL

iPhone Lead Time Tracker 3 days into Pre-Orders: We're seeing average lead times of 2.6 weeks across 8 countries. That's in line with where the Pro models were last year. My take: Most importantly, the lead times jumped from 1.6 weeks yesterday to 2.6 weeks today. Part of that jump is people are back in front of their computers (pre-orders started on Saturday). The important part is lead times are going up, which has historically been a favorable sign for demand. $AAPL

Tough day for the AI trade, with many of the key names down 4-8% on Dario’s call to slow AI. We need to put the conversation of an “AI slowdown” into perspective. We’ve been going at 200 mph, and if everything that Dario recommended comes into play, the speed of AI progress will be dialed back to 195 mph. There’s no way these companies are going to measurably back off for two reasons: 1) The Prisoner’s Dilemma is in play. If one maintains its pace, the others that dial it back will be at a significant disadvantage. 2) The China-US dynamic is real, and at a minimum, the US has to keep pace with China. The bottom line: we’re not changing our…

Dario, Musk and Altman just tried to tap the brakes on model improvements. Unfortunately for AI safety, the race is too intense, and I expect little to change in the leapfrog game. https://t.co/rx2XM847vZ

Shares of $AAPL moved about 7% from the end of the “Surprise and Shine” event to close of market today (2.5 trading days), while the Nasdaq was flat. The move higher underscores that investors are optimistic that the new Duo will add a measurable amount to revenue in the coming year. That said, a look at FactSet analysts estimates reveal consensus revenue expectations for the next three quarters actually went down by 1% for analysts that have updated their models. The dynamic of shares of AAPL going higher while numbers are going slightly lower underscores the mixed investors feelings on the Duo topic. In the end, I expect Duo will be more s…

I stumbled on a small speedbump for iPhone in China. While Apple is still taking China pre-orders tomorrow, the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max don’t have approval for sale (see image). Last year the same red “release after approval” note showed up on iPhone Air, because it was eSIM-only. My guess is the hang up this cycle is also related to the eSIM and should be sorted out over the next week.

The collective opinion on iPhone Duo seems to be flipping people who never thought they wanted a foldable phone. They’ll likely come from Pro and Pro Max. Good news for AAPL given that’s a 60% average ASP bump.

iPhone Duo will appeal to consumers who can’t get enough content. Unfortunately for humanity, and fortunately for $AAPL, that’s a big market. The $2k price point breaks down to $58 a month vs $35 for Pro Max. https://t.co/bNdZPKsWvn

I went into today's $AAPL event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind. https://t.co/RYh7FK6kG0

If a third of the Pro Max buyers switch to Duo in the next year, that would increase overall iPhone revenue by 5%, and overall Apple revenue by 2.5% in FY27. That excludes any iPhone Pro or lower customers making the jump. In other words, even with somewhat conservative assumptions, the Duo can have a measurable impact to the business.

Putting the Apple Event together, $AAPL is likely going to outperform over the next week.

Most important takeaway from the $AAPL event : The Duo matters because this is the first time since AirPods in December, 2016 that Apple announced a new product people will really want. Vision Pro missed the mark.

What does a $1,999 iPhone Duo translate to monthly payments? iPhone Duo is about $58/month vs. $35/month for iPhone Pro Max. Thinking about it as an extra $23 a month means we will see a measurable percentage of people jumping from Pro Max to Duo. I'll look into impact on overall product will help revenue. More to come. $AAPL

I dont want a bigger phone in my pocket, but Duo looks shorter, wider, and pretty thin. Hard to say how it’ll compare to a Pro in your pocket. But many will consideration size in my pocket and hand… not the price. The Pro and Pro Max are already expensive ($1k+), so I don’t think the stretch to $2k is much of a stretch for folks alreadying buying $1k+ phones. $AAPL

The new foldable iPhone Duo is sick. No seam. Ultra thin. 50% larger screen than Pro Max. My take: They're going to sell more than I thought before seeing it. I was thinking it would account for 5% of iPhone revenue in FY27. Now I think likely going to be 10%. The issue is the price. We don't have it yet, but it will be $2k plus. $AAPL

Big picture on new iPhones, AirPods and Watch is these devices will be increasing listening to us and processing what they hear with personalized AI. My take: New world order. $AAPL

No price increase for AirPods 5, Watch 12 and Ultra 4. My take is I was expected 10% bumps. $AAPL

$AAPL iPhone Pro gets 9% price increase and Pro Max 8%. The Street was thinking around 10%, so it's inline with expectations. That basically offsets the higher memory costs. Means margins won't change much, at least for the Pro and Pro Max.

We still don't know the timing of the full release of the New Siri AI. This is a key topic. They told us what we already knew, that the new Siri is available in English today. It came out in July. What is new is that coming in October is French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish. Thats a head fake, because it's for those languages only in the US. The fine print of the screen grab below says Siri will not be available in EU or China. The Street thinks EU is sometime in 2027 and China in 2028.

Apple PR is sending a message that Ternus has a wide range as Apple’s new CEO. They set up his prepared remarks with handling the full welcome, mission and vision and thesis, plus introducing the first product, including a few technical details.