Gene Munster

Gaming will have supply constrains for "April and beyond" says Kress. My take: Investors don't care about gaming segment. $NVDA

Rubin is on track for volume shipments in the second half of the year says $NVDA Colette Kress.

I estimate roughly 70% of $NVDA revenue currently comes from just 8 companies. This concentration underpins investor concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of this growth.

AI is accelerating faster than people not using these tools can grasp. Those building with agents today are not surprised by the $NVDA results and guidance.

Two factors that will keep AI infrastructure spending higher for longer: Inference: The shift from training models to running them at scale. Physical AI: The integration of LLMs into robotics and edge hardware. $NVDA

The central takeaway from $NVDA's results and April guidance: The most knowledgeable companies in the world when it comes to building AI increasingly believe it will be wildly disruptive. What does "disruptive" mean? It will be messy. Productivity per knowledge worker increases by multiples, while the total number of knowledge workers declines.

How long this AI buildout will last? A long time. The investor focus for $NVDA is now on CY27 revenue growth. The Street is at 28%. I expect that will move to 35% tonight when analysts update their models and believe actual growth will be closer to 50%.

The AI Infrastructure Trade is alive and well. The bar was high going into $NVDA earnings. Most investors were expecting the high end of the April revenue guide would imply around 70% yy growth. The actual guide high end implies 79%.

$NVDA gave a monster guide. High end of April quarter revenue guide implies 79% y/y growth vs. Street at 64%.

T-minus 5 days until $NVDA reports. I expect guidance to come in ahead of expectations for CY26. That said, the real question is: what about 2027? My take: Growth in CY27 will be closer to 40% vs. the Street at 28%. Here's my preview: https://t.co/pW7sDZ3Ddw

Agree with Mark. March 4 will likely be highlighted by a low-end MacBook and maybe a new lower-priced iPhone 17e (the 16e came out a year ago). Siri won't be addressed. My take: The low-end products have historically led to a small and short bump in sales.

Waymo is testing winter driving in Minneapolis. Compared to a Tesla Model Y, a Waymo vehicle in the wild looks like a college science project with sensors hanging all over it.

Vertiv beat December expectations and guided March revenue 6% above the Street. Investors’ central question remains: how long can this better-than-expected growth last? I believe it can continue for multiple years, as the inference build is just beginning and the required infrastructure appears many times larger than the current AI training buildout. $VRT is a holding in our $LOUP Frontier Tech ETF. To view LOUP’s current holdings, visit https://t.co/Pz3hg1cXuA.

Shares of $AAPL down 1.2% (vs the Nasdaq down 0.3%) on Gurman’s reporting that the new Siri is further delayed by 3-7 months underscores how low of a bar investors have on Apple Intelligence’s potential. If investors had high expectations around the new Siri, the stock would’ve been down much more. The bottom line is Apple Intelligence continues to hold optionality value for AAPL investors. I believe they’ll eventually get it right and be a key beneficiary of what will be a significant personalized AI opportunity.

A year ago I thought we were in AI”s 3rd inning. I now believe we’re in the 2nd.

Software will get a bounce in the next few months. Unfortunately the long term seat growth headwind is here to stay.

More capex is a good thing for both the companies that are spending more and the broader AI trade. Market disagrees with me. $AMZN capex growth in 2026 projected to be 54%. Whisper was it was going to 40% up from 18% in-print. Here’s where we stand if they hit the high end of the capex guide this year. GOOG up 108%- Previous 30% META up 80% - Previous 54% AMZN up 54% - Previous 18% MSFT up 35% - Previous 30% My takeaway. With AMZN down 7%, the market is largely missing the point.

$AMZN Stock down 11%. AWS growth was 24% vs whisper of 25%+ and imprint of 22%. Whisper jumped last night on the Google Cloud blowout last night. Capex guide was $200B. Expectations were $150B.

$GOOG's business and growth outlook is rock solid. Shares sold off on the massive CapEx guide, comments on rising depreciation impacting earnings, and unknowns around quarter-to-quarter Cloud growth. https://t.co/jv6Mg023zs https://t.co/J2mRdZPspU

$GOOG results and capex guide are a reminder we’re still early in AI.

$GOOG drifted lower during the call and is now down 2% After hours. Likely driven by uncertainty around Cloud growth this year, especially with capacity constraints and the majority of CapEx that fixes the constraints are weighted toward the back half of the year.

Sundar says they aren't seeing cannibalization in Search, despite Gemini usage ramping up from 650M to 750M weekly active users over the past three months. $GOOG

Native Gemini subs are now 750m weekly, up from 650m in September. OpenAI is at 900m. The gap is 150m today. Six months ago it was about 300m gap. Sundar said also had a “sharp increase in usage” by each users. My take: More users, more usage by each user. $GOOG

About half of Capex will go to Cloud business this year.

$GOOG Cloud revenue growth hurdles. Sundar says compute capacity around chips and power in an efficient way is their #1 challenge. Sundar said they’re “meeting the moment well and spending time on it” My take: Google Cloud growth will likely be impacted at times with more supply constraints.

What does $GOOG management have to say about the software sell off. Mark Mahaney asked the question on the call. Sundar said this moment for software leaders need to deeply incorporate AI into workflows and drive efficiencies within the organization. My take: Doesn't tell us anything. He added token usage from software companies has been "very robust" in December. My take: The software companies know that they have to rebuild their business with AI, which speaks to them understanding the reality of what's around the corner.

Waymo closed a $16B round on February 2, which set the post-money valuation at $126B. At the surface, this valuation is a bargain. I think the reason why its not higher is because the risk that Tesla ramps fast in the coming two years.

Regarding the question about how early we are in AI? $GOOG guided Capex this year to grow at 108% at $175-185B. Previously the Street was expecting 30% growth, or $116B. Meta is now well behind Google at 74% growth. Let the arms race continue.

$GOOG Backlog up 40% qq vs up 46% qq last quarter. My take: Its a win given its still a big number off of a higher base.

I still believe $GOOG will be the top performing Mag 7 this year. Google Cloud crushed it. Grew at 48%. Whisper number was 38% growth. Search had a solid quarter too. Grew at 17% vs. the Street whisper 15% and compared to 14.5% in Sep, 11.7% in June, and 9.8% in March. Highest search growth quarter since March of 2022. Bottom line: AI is working for Google Cloud & Search in a more meaningful way than I expected going into tonight. Let’s see what they say on the call about ad coverage in AI Overviews and AI Mode.