Gene Munster

AI’s impact just hit a new gear. Block ($XYZ) is cutting 40% of its 10k-person headcount due to AI efficiencies. My take: we’re in the second inning.

$NVDA Three takeaways on Pressure Points: 1. The stock being down 1% underscores that investors’ long term growth concerns remain. 2. The fundamentals and outlook came in better than elevated whisper numbers. 3. Most importantly, the guidance reinforces just how early we are in AI.

The final question of the call turned into a 7-minute Jensen manifesto on how growth can continue. $NVDA My take: It passed the sniff test. Here’s the play-by-play: Goldman asked if Jensen still feels good about growth accelerating beyond the April quarter. Jensen took a "ground-up" approach to the answer: The Scale: The world spends $300B–$400B on classical computing, but AI requires 1,000x more. If the world sees value in the AI "token," it will invest to produce it. The Spend: Infrastructure spend to meet token demand will exceed $700B this year driven by enterprise software, robotic factories, agent-based small businesses, and cars t…

Fun question about space data centers: Jensen says the economics are poor today but will improve over time. He adds space offers an abundance of energy and real estate, but cooling is the bottleneck. Addresses the cooling concern that there’s no air for convection, and you need massive radiator which is a total departure from Earth-bound methods. Hopper is already in space, and "imaging" is a key use case. My take: Jensen message is orbital data centers are difficult today and worth pursuing. $NVDA

$NVDA is now up only 0.6%, compared to 2.5% when the call began. One reason for the drift: the call is missing the usual "early innings" table pounding message. Jensen is leading with data over his typical bombardment of bullish adjectives. My take: We’re still in the 2nd inning.

Jensen says we’re at the inflection point where compute equals revenue. He points to the ROI from Claude Cowork, OpenClaw, and Claude Code as proof that AI is shifting from an expense to a direct profit driver. My take: Strong narrative, but it won’t silence the skeptics who fear AI will result in profitless prosperity, massive productivity gains that don't have a ROI.

Jensen takes the mic for three minutes: OpenAI: Confirmed they are nearing an expanded partnership (following reports of a $30B+ equity stake). Meta: Says things are "going well," though avoided addressing Meta’s recent pivot to AMD for certain workloads. Then turned it over to Q&A.

Kress says they’ve secured inventory to meet Data Center demand for the next several quarters. My take: The stock dipped by 1% on the news. Ironically, operating outside of supply-demand equilibrium is often better for the stock; it allows investors to "dream" of what results would have been without constraints. $NVDA

Physical AI was about 3% of revenue in CY25. CFO says this will be a major driver. My take: I believe by CY30 this segment can become a $50B plus annual business, up from about $6B in CY25. That implies physical AI could represent about 8% of a $600B revenue base in CY30. $NVDA

Gaming will have supply constrains for "April and beyond" says Kress. My take: Investors don't care about gaming segment. $NVDA

Rubin is on track for volume shipments in the second half of the year says $NVDA Colette Kress.

I estimate roughly 70% of $NVDA revenue currently comes from just 8 companies. This concentration underpins investor concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of this growth.

AI is accelerating faster than people not using these tools can grasp. Those building with agents today are not surprised by the $NVDA results and guidance.

Two factors that will keep AI infrastructure spending higher for longer: Inference: The shift from training models to running them at scale. Physical AI: The integration of LLMs into robotics and edge hardware. $NVDA

The central takeaway from $NVDA's results and April guidance: The most knowledgeable companies in the world when it comes to building AI increasingly believe it will be wildly disruptive. What does "disruptive" mean? It will be messy. Productivity per knowledge worker increases by multiples, while the total number of knowledge workers declines.

How long this AI buildout will last? A long time. The investor focus for $NVDA is now on CY27 revenue growth. The Street is at 28%. I expect that will move to 35% tonight when analysts update their models and believe actual growth will be closer to 50%.

The AI Infrastructure Trade is alive and well. The bar was high going into $NVDA earnings. Most investors were expecting the high end of the April revenue guide would imply around 70% yy growth. The actual guide high end implies 79%.

$NVDA gave a monster guide. High end of April quarter revenue guide implies 79% y/y growth vs. Street at 64%.

T-minus 5 days until $NVDA reports. I expect guidance to come in ahead of expectations for CY26. That said, the real question is: what about 2027? My take: Growth in CY27 will be closer to 40% vs. the Street at 28%. Here's my preview: https://t.co/pW7sDZ3Ddw

Agree with Mark. March 4 will likely be highlighted by a low-end MacBook and maybe a new lower-priced iPhone 17e (the 16e came out a year ago). Siri won't be addressed. My take: The low-end products have historically led to a small and short bump in sales.

Waymo is testing winter driving in Minneapolis. Compared to a Tesla Model Y, a Waymo vehicle in the wild looks like a college science project with sensors hanging all over it.

Vertiv beat December expectations and guided March revenue 6% above the Street. Investors’ central question remains: how long can this better-than-expected growth last? I believe it can continue for multiple years, as the inference build is just beginning and the required infrastructure appears many times larger than the current AI training buildout. $VRT is a holding in our $LOUP Frontier Tech ETF. To view LOUP’s current holdings, visit https://t.co/Pz3hg1cXuA.

Shares of $AAPL down 1.2% (vs the Nasdaq down 0.3%) on Gurman’s reporting that the new Siri is further delayed by 3-7 months underscores how low of a bar investors have on Apple Intelligence’s potential. If investors had high expectations around the new Siri, the stock would’ve been down much more. The bottom line is Apple Intelligence continues to hold optionality value for AAPL investors. I believe they’ll eventually get it right and be a key beneficiary of what will be a significant personalized AI opportunity.

A year ago I thought we were in AI”s 3rd inning. I now believe we’re in the 2nd.

Software will get a bounce in the next few months. Unfortunately the long term seat growth headwind is here to stay.

More capex is a good thing for both the companies that are spending more and the broader AI trade. Market disagrees with me. $AMZN capex growth in 2026 projected to be 54%. Whisper was it was going to 40% up from 18% in-print. Here’s where we stand if they hit the high end of the capex guide this year. GOOG up 108%- Previous 30% META up 80% - Previous 54% AMZN up 54% - Previous 18% MSFT up 35% - Previous 30% My takeaway. With AMZN down 7%, the market is largely missing the point.

$AMZN Stock down 11%. AWS growth was 24% vs whisper of 25%+ and imprint of 22%. Whisper jumped last night on the Google Cloud blowout last night. Capex guide was $200B. Expectations were $150B.

$GOOG's business and growth outlook is rock solid. Shares sold off on the massive CapEx guide, comments on rising depreciation impacting earnings, and unknowns around quarter-to-quarter Cloud growth. https://t.co/jv6Mg023zs https://t.co/J2mRdZPspU

$GOOG results and capex guide are a reminder we’re still early in AI.

$GOOG drifted lower during the call and is now down 2% After hours. Likely driven by uncertainty around Cloud growth this year, especially with capacity constraints and the majority of CapEx that fixes the constraints are weighted toward the back half of the year.