Working your Way Up

The idea of being able to perform work to achieve social mobility is a modern one. This was mostly not the case historically. No amount of work could have turned you from a farmer to nobility. The reason for this is the feudal lord could just enslave you instead of paying you. This is because he has more weapons than you. To the extent that social mobility existed, it was achieved primarily through war. You can think of the human impulse for war as directly flowing from the insatiable demand for societal reordering, what Bismarck called “the continuation of politics by other means.” There have frequently been periods when the lower classes were actually banned from war. Militarism would still be celebrated and upkept by the elite, but the poor would be not allowed to fight. Quite a contrast to today. While current levels of inequality, when reached in the past, have caused large-scale violent rebellions, this time is quite different due to a perfect storm of forces: A significant decline in testosterone levels (studies indicate a drop of about 50% in men over the past few decades). Pervasive distractions—such as drugs, pornography, and short-form media—that impair long-term planning and focus. Advances in AI that bolster surveillance and control, thwarting potential resistance from marginalised groups. Record-low standards in physical education, contributing to widespread physical and mental inertia. No class consciousness. A factory worker can hardly be expected to show solidarity with a software engineer laid off because of AI. Some Sci-Fi films will have you imagining the dystopian future contains a huge underclass of people working very hard in very poor conditions for very long hours. This is illogical. With birth rates decreasing at the same time that jobs disappear, there will be a falling population inheriting better conditions and unaccustomed to work. Children today are the first generation born into a world where AI is multiples more intelligent than they can ever hope to be. They will marvel at the days when people used to read books, learn facts, and take exams. There is a more basic question at play. Why do human societies need social mobility? The first answer, from capitalism, is that the possibility of a better life leads to work, which leads to invention and improvement, which benefits everyone. This logic breaks down with AGI. You do not need intelligent people to invent things anymore. The second answer, from biology, is eugenics. Social mobility helps replenish the gene pool. Some poor people may nonetheless have good genes. This logic breaks down with IVF, embryo selection, and surrogacy. You do not need to give the poor person a new life anymore in order to bring them into the gene pool--you can simply procure the genetic material. The third answer, from ethics, is fairness. But will people be resentful of the permanent overclass? If they are shown how hard the average person used to work, for a tiny % chance at mobility, they will likely be grateful that they don't have to work and can just relax and consume. If the overclass retreat into fortresses like the Wizard of Oz, and become less and less relatable, that will also help. Then they are not using wealth to flex on plebs, but rather being imagined from afar as stewarding the species toward interplanetary travel. Right now is the transition phase where the AI elite must convince society to bankroll and legalise AGI. There is enough private wealth to do so, but there is still a chance they get banned or nationalised. If they can avoid these fates, then the next phase begins.