2026-03-31XQuote

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Think we are on pace for this. US exits the Middle East. Markets pump and under American logic this was therefore a win, while ground troops would be catastrophically unpopular. Countries fend for themselves to secure oil. Israel annexes south Lebanon. Iran securitises Strait of Hormuz. Over time Trump represents a core American shift from guarantor of the free and willing to calculator of cold economic reality.

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There will be a temporary ceasefire within next 45 days. The GCC cannot withstand this pressure for much longer. The US military will mostly exit the region. The popularity rate is too low to mobilise ground troops. The next wave of conflict will be ignited by skirmishes in the nearby areas, eg Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, and Bahrain. This time it triggers a proper Iran-Israel war that lasts at least five years. Nuclear weapon use on inhabited sites won’t happen, but Iran will achieve nuclear capabilities. Eventually peace is reached because of mutually assured destruction guarantees. Both Israel and Iran will have substantially larger territories at the end and both sides will claim victory. The war will not be later remembered as WW3 but will have a different name in each country.
zhusu ↗