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Open original source ↗.@ARKInvest has observed over the last few years that AI training and inference costs have been dropping 75% and 85-90%, respectively. Deepseek may be accelerating the pace of change, but the declines already are dramatic. Faster cost declines will add to demand, more for inference, a more competitive GPU space than training, and one of the nuances. That said, the AI boom is broadening out. Besides dramatic and broad-based productivity gains, the biggest revenue opportunity in the next five to ten years is autonomous mobility, and the most profound is health care - curing disease.
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While the new DeepSeek R-1 model provides a competitive solution to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model, ultimately, more performant open-source models are a good thing, as they provide developers with more options to build AI applications. As more AI applications scale, the aggregate need for compute will also scale. Over long time horizons, the aggregate demand for compute has only increased, and I don't expect that to change in the future. Case in point - do you think they actually faced a malicious attack this morning, or ran out of available compute when everyone started downloading the app to see why the market was selling off?
downingARK ↗