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Open original source ↗According to @ARKInvest’s research, humanoid robots are 200,000 times more complex than robotaxis to develop. Given Elon’s first principle’s approach and dogged determination, we project that @Tesla’s Optimus will begin to transform factory life, then home life, in 2028/2029.
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Elon Musk on why Optimus is so brutally hard to build (hardware side): “The hands are the majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.” Human hands evolved insane sophistication — ~27–28 degrees of freedom, complex tendon web (mostly forearm muscles), crazy dexterity. No supply chain exists. Tesla had to design every single actuator, motor, gearbox & electronics from physics first principles. “Harder than Cybertruck or Model X… somewhere between Model X and Starship.” Optimus v3 finally aiming for true human-level hand performance. The “hands problem” is massively underestimated.
TheCaptainEli ↗