2026-07-28XQuote

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Starship’s successful splashdown was perhaps game-changing news for #SpaceX; yet, the stock dropped further below its IPO price today. The equity market is climbing a “wall of worry”. Bull markets do not end in this way. They end when everyone believes the sky is the limit!

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Friday's successful Starship splashdown and its relatively unscathed heatshield were much more meaningful than most realize. If SpaceX can master starship reuseability this year that would increase our 2031 revenue and EBIT expectations for the company by roughly 3 fold and improve 2036 prospects by 6 to 7 fold. Even 2027 reuseability would put them ahead of schedule in our modeling and meaningfully improve both 2031 and 2036 prospects. The difference between a reuseable Starship top stage and disposable one is the difference between $570 per kg to launch and $100 per kg to launch. This allows the company to train more of its precious capital on satellite manufacture scaling rather than replenishing a very useful starship fleet.
wintonARK ↗