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New Essay dropped "Reality Test" Am I dreaming - or is AI investing as easy as buying a subscription to Citrini Research and buying every stonk they write about? Am I dreaming - or does the price of oil not matter to economics or politics and that is why Trump and the IRGC can continue trading rhetorical barbs over social media while ships languish in the Strait of Hormuz? Am I dreaming - or does the 2-year US treasury yield trading 0.5% over the effective funds rate not lead to the Fed raising rates at an upcoming meeting? Am I dreaming - or can the entire gains of AI to America accrue to a few tech bro douche nozzles? To check whether I’m lucid dreaming about this FUBAR universe in which I inhabit, I must perform a reality test. And if this test fails, I know I am dreaming and must alter my portfolio. Let this essay be that test, and at the end of the cathartic experience that is tap-tapping on my word processor, my portfolio will have undergone immense changes or none at all. My theory at the outset is that I am indeed dreaming. The most important variable that exerts a reflexive effect upon the whole investing complex is the price of oil and other hydrocarbons. Our ability to experience the universe hinges on the efficiency with which we convert energy into biological and or artificial intelligence. Nothing violates this truth. And while the markets may, for a blip in time, appear to negate this law, shit always comes back to bite you in the proverbial ass. ... full essay on my substack