$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings!
2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer).
Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M.
- Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products.
- Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in.
- Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations.
From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future.
- Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND
Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think.
- "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems"
- Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems
Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others.
I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM.
Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come.
And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions...
$116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.
Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC.
Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI.
If we look at the timeline and speculated customers:
Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META).
- Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs.
Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA)
- Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400.
March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph)
- Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer.
March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO )
- New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers
(All speculative, very confidential BOM)
Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR.
Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now.
But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.
aleabitoreddit ↗