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Open original source ↗For $XFAB ER transcript:
Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability.
- $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics".
- "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB"
So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong.
At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general.
So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v.
Okay back to the ER:
- "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners.
I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months.
- Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off).
So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities.
TLDR:
- Current revenue numbers not as impressive.
- $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis)
- 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027)
- Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production
Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.
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@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on the XFAB earnings yesterday? thank you in advance!
jim29223471 ↗