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Even though Federal Reserve Chair Warsh emphasized that he doesn’t "prejudge meetings" and that the Fed is no longer in the business of forward guidance, markets have interpreted his remarks at the IMF meetings in Thailand as dovish when it comes to an October rate action. Specifically, the market's implied probability of an October hike is now under 20%; that of a 25 bps December hike is near 90%, and 2.5 hikes are priced in by mid-2027. #economy #markets #federalreserve