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By my measurement, the efficiency of intelligence output is doubling roughly every five months. This isn't the models getting a bit better... this is the actual amount of intelligence you get out of each unit of energy, doubling, every five months... and the doubling time is shrinking. Nothing in human history has compounded like this. Not electricity, not the internet. And there's no playbook for it, because every institution we have was built for a world where things changed over decades. This is what I call The Economic Singularity. Somewhere around 2030 to 2032 the machine economy starts moving faster than the instruments we use to measure it... GDP, earnings, the wage were all built for a world of scarce human labour, all pointed at an economy that no longer runs on it. Which means the years between now and then are the window. The whole game is to be positioned on the scarce side of the ledger before the old numbers stop meaning anything, because once the machines are running the machine economy the easy part is over. We have maybe five years... I wrote a long form piece on this this week, on why its compounding this fast... the models are now doing most of the work of building the next models, which takes the slowest part of the process, us, out of the loop. Thats what bends the curve, and its why five months becomes four, then three, then two. Have a look: https://t.co/VnbQBGTQYX