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After the trade war, China rerouted trade away from America towards other countries. The US actually got down[1] to 15% of Chinese exports, so China wasn’t fully dependent on the US market. Some would argue that’s a win/win — China just exports goods to other countries, and America builds up its homegrown manufacturing. Similarly, after the talent war, India is rerouting talent away from America and towards other countries. The US actually has only ~17% of the Indian diaspora[2], so Indians aren’t fully dependent on the US market. Some would also argue that’s a win/win — India just exports talent to other countries, and America builds up its homegrown talent. Where do they go? The #1 destination for Indian talent may shift to the UAE and the Middle East more generally, while the #2 could be Singapore. A global rerouting of talent flows. [1]: Here’s the graph showing that the US was only 16% of China’s revenue as of 2022. That means China isn’t entirely dependent on the US as a market anymore: https://t.co/7rPjYd8Vzt [1b]: Amazingly, by 2025, according to this source at least, China has reportedly scaled their combined trade volumes with Africa and Latin America to more than North America. This could be in terms of natural resources as China has built quite a lot of mines and pipelines abroad: https://t.co/OqHUBkf1mZ [2]: Here’s the source for stats and maps on Indian emigration: https://t.co/umKJi8e9Mc [2b]: And here is the UAE setting up to absorb more Indian talent now that the USA has raised fees for H-1Bs: https://t.co/a70S6zUqhb The Internet has completely transformed global markets. The UAE isn’t limited by its territory, and neither are countries like Singapore (or, nowadays, El Salvador). They can do that too. India is the fastest growing large economy in the world over the last ten years. But domestic growth actually means *more* emigration, in the early stages. That’s because very poor countries don’t send anyone abroad, but as a country rises, its emerging middle class gains the ability to afford travel, see the world, and perhaps grow even faster than their home country. During Britain’s rise, Britons didn’t just stay at home, but went round the world. After the Meiji Restoration, Japan sent Japanese to study everywhere. And after the fall of communism, Poland sent Poles everywhere, before Poland itself got built up to its current level. China is now in the later stages of its growth, so the Chinese diaspora is different in composition than it used to be. But India is in the earlier stages of hypergrowth, so the diaspora will likely expand before it contracts. Most likely it will go to welcoming places like the UAE, which is close to 50% Indian already.