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for the most part this market has been about being extremely flexible, and more focused on short term trading. bc sustained moves over a long period of time for any alt have not been extremely consistent. There have been brief narratives, lasting 2 weeks at most in most cases before the moves unwind and this has basically been how this market has traded for some time the downside has remained the same as always, things going to zero, while the upside has been very limited vs past cycles except the occasional runners. There's just a lack of real liquidity in the market it feels like. And even less so now. DATS provided the best trades over the summer but even those are pretty weak now. i think for any meaningful thing to happen in alts this line in the sand has to be reclaimed which really goes without saying. We did an underside retest this week and rejected. Perhaps we get another stab at it soon, and perhaps we don't. Nobody knows. But I think for now this should be the bias for risk taking with whatever size is to you. it is relative to everyone. This should line up with BTC at about 115-116k if we get that again For BTC the line in the sand currently is 108-109k for the downside, and 115-116k reclaim for continuation to new highs. For the downside we can trade below that briefly, minutes or hours, but any sustained time like 1d-3d opens up the door to 98k imo and obviously for alts it can get real ugly. Currently I think this range is one you trade with reduced size and just wait for the markets decision. Especially bc the market is trading on thinner books atm for alts. Crypto overall has been far weaker overall than any other market. Stocks in many cases have been doing anything from 10x to even 150x and just drift higher. Same with commodities doing multiples while alts have been stuck in the mud for years as a whole. Waiting for an outcome is a small price to pay in the current market. I don't know if that magically changes or not. We just have to trade what is given and remain as neutral as possible in our thinking and open to everything so we can trade it both ways. for now, these are the inflection points that determine risk moving forward. it’s not about being right or wrong, we are all right and wrong at various times. it’s about probabilistic outcomes and trying to put yourself in the best position possible to capitalize on good outcomes, and minimize the losses on bad outcomes and that when we are wrong on something. We pay a small price for it. thats the goal. we have to be good at losing. if you aren't good at losing then that's why you end up with big losses. Btc can be expensive at 115k for example if it’s retesting From below like it did this week bc that was a retest after a breakdown. But it can be cheap if retesting from above, for example it reclaims and briefly retests. Despite it being the same price. This goes for anything in the market, thats just one example.