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Open original source ↗It's been a good year, and for the most part we cooked
avoided all the drawdown in crypto this year, and had been long hype + adding a lot on the way up as the core exposure
Got a good amount of the AI trade in stonks and general stock exposure for the past 18 months
longed eth at 1766. not crazy size tho
Also, just some general thoughts on this year below:
The average person would be better off trying to capture the meat of the move. vs trying to time bottoms. How many times did people call a macro bottom in the past year? it felt like everyday.
Let's keep this idea simple, Im going to oversimplify it but as a framework. lets say instead of catching a bottom. You pay a 20% premium from the lows to enter but you structurally get a reclaim. The first HH. You can then ride that up bc your invalidation is so so so so cheap at that point and so is the entry. You know the spot it can't lose structurally. if it's the start of an uptrend, you have all the upside without the time cost, opp costs, emotional costs, and very real drawdowns. And instead get to ride momentum from the reclaims.
Lets say $100 is that HH point, buying at $99 can be extremely expensive but buying at $101 can be very cheap. Bc of market structure + trend. The 99 can just be trend continuation and the next LH, while the 101 is a restest of a major reclaim that leads to continuation but also gives you a cheap exit if wrong.
i think the market structure mental framework that shows lower prices aren't always a great deal is a good way to think and trade markets in general. bc it comes at a greater cost more often than not.
the trend is truly your friend.
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