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Open original source ↗We are in the eye of the storm but, if President Trump cares about his legacy - which we know he does - or the midterm election campaign season - which will start this fall - then the last leg of this rolling recession is giving him and the Fed more degrees of freedom to pivot.
In this ITK, I show in charts the rolling recession that started when the Fed jacked up interest rates 24-fold and threw one sector and demographic cohort after another into a rolling recession. The sectors that kept GDP afloat were the government and high-end consumers.
While many think the recession is starting, we believe that most sectors are down, that the last two are capitulating, and that the Trump team and Fed have many degrees of freedom to pivot toward pro-growth policies - tax cuts, massive deregulation, lower interest rates.
Innovation gains traction during tough times. When consumers and businesses are afraid - which they are now - they are willing to change the way they do things. Given the massive amount of technologically enabled innovation bursting on the scene today - AI the biggest catalyst -
Trump and Powell should seize the moment and catapult the economy into what could become the most powerful, productivity-led expansion in history.
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The Tariff Turmoil. Listen as @CathieDWood emphasizes the importance of understanding the political backdrop, particularly regarding tariffs and their implications for the economy. Hear more of Cathie's thoughts in the new "In The Know." https://t.co/hLl9IG2byM
ARKInvest ↗