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On a roadshow through Asia and Europe, I am struck by investor fears of inflation. They are surprised when I suggest that inflation could break down in a big way, and not just because of oil prices. As measured by unit labor costs, inflation already is down to 0.5% YoY. As we learned in the 80s and 90s, productivity is a powerful force against inflation. In the US, on a year-over-year basis during the first quarter, productivity was up ~3% while compensation per hour was up 3.5%. Thus, “underlying inflation”was 0.5%. No cost-push inflation there! Truflation, a metric that measures the prices of thousands of consumer goods and services in real time 24/7, has dropped from 11% on a year-over-year basis in 2022 to 1.8%, while core Truflation has dropped to 1.4%. From the five studies that he has commissioned, I believe that Kevin Warsh understands not only the disinflationary role that productivity is playing but also the flaws in government-measured inflation rates. While others are projecting higher rates sooner than was the case a few months ago, I believe that Warsh will give the financial markets a master class in monetary policy