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Most influencers seem to invest in the most dogtier stuff bc (1) their visibility pipeline is stuff that outbounds to them (adverse selection) or (2) they’re more comfortable backing their “friends” (adverse selection) and maybe (3) they don’t have the technical, market or product expertise to evaluate what’s good and bad. Even if you ignore that, crypto ppls inability to understand pareto returns is quite weird. If you bet 10 times, lose 9 times, and win once, but your win a >10x, then you are a profitable investor. TG seems to have 14% historical hit rate, with the win being on the low side of a win. 10 bets of $1000, if hit rate remains constant, yields overall profitability. The only reason to decrease shots on goal is if you can improve selection accuracy, which is the hardest part of angel investing anyway, or if your hit rate drops below profitable threshold. It is possible to make more $ return with a hit rate of 30% than with a 70%, but crypto ppl find this very confusing. Another way of framing this is, if you have a 14% hit rate, then investing in 1 thing per year means you will win 0.14 times per year. If TG is implying he could have picked the winner out of the 7, then why did he voluntarily invest in the losers at the time? Obviously it is much easier to choose in hindsight. If you can choose in advance then yes obviously only pick the winners, but that seems impossible to me (my hit rate is maybe 35-40%). If you have some lower conviction feelings then you can deal with them via sizing (ie. modify bet size 2x instead of x instead of x/2 and etc). People would have a better time w angel investing by evaluating the winners that they missed and why they missed them. If your goal is to get into every single one of the top 10% of investment opportunities from a previous year, then you need to evaluate why you failed to do that in the past. For most ppl the answer will be “wasn’t offered it”, so then you need to fix for this. Why weren’t you offered? You didn’t go ask. Why didn’t you ask? You didn’t know it existed. Why didn’t you know it existed? You didn’t know this problem was worth solving or was an opportunity so you didn’t go looking for teams who are fixing it. KOLs have a weirder angel dynamic to most folks because they get way, way more inbound. But most of this inbound is trash (mental model which founders want random KOL on their cap table such that they will inbound them?). But occasionally there are opportunities where it is beneficial (eg pumpfun might want KOLs for business reasons), however the majority of this benefit is expressed via sizing, and it’s even harder to spot since all inbound should be mentally down-rated in general if you are a KOL.