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The disclosure by $TSLA on their 2Q conference call that they had completed 380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles over the past year was a stunning admission, and the likely reason for the stock’s big decline over the past two days. https://t.co/I6d0V9zagQ (2) Why…? Because if we’re charitable and assume 100,000 of those miles came in June alone, and only in Austin, a city of 1M people (2.5M in the MSA), at $2 per mile, that works out to $200,000 for the month/million people. Or $2.4M per year/million people. https://t.co/3NN2gpCvyD (3) That works out to an $840M per year ARR for the entire USA, charitably assuming the entire country is like Austin! In effect Tesla just admitted that the entire TAM for Robotaxis in the US is currently tiny. And likely will remain so for years. (4) And with FSD currently less than a $2B ARR business (1.5M paying subscribers at $100/month), $TSLA just told us how small two of the biggest TAM narratives (FSD and Robotaxis) they have really are. That’s likely why Musk is now pivoting to chip production (Terafab). https://t.co/FilNEgjnvm