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Open original source ↗"No Trade Zone" discusses the impact on $BTC based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. https://t.co/spNEjrnPI7
The most important chart to view to understand if commodities are moving through the Strait of Hormuz is the spread between back vs. front month oil prices. https://t.co/n8T4PbrIz1
$BTC isn’t out of the woods given the ceasefire, the AI destruction of knowledge workers is accelerating, a financial crisis is nigh. But maybe $BTC is breaking out against US SaaS software and we bottomed? https://t.co/BvocnMhMxX
The authorities will print money whatever happens, so being long $BTC un-levered is still @maelstrom positioning. In this uncertain time, we love $HYPE. https://t.co/qGmoLYArzo
Apart from slowly increasing our long position in Hyperliquid, we did fuck all trading in the first quarter.
To turn Iran into the latest Trashcanistan, Emperor/Entertainer in Chief US President Donald J. Trump launched a war of choice against Iran with support from his backup singer Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “The Bedouin Butcher” Netanyahu. Almost six weeks into the war and the only question that matters is what arrangement will prevail regarding commodity and goods flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Why would any nation save in dollars if they cannot ship goods without paying a toll in yuan obtained by purchasing gold? Given that most major economies run trade deficits with China, the only way to raise yuan is to sell dollars, buy gold, and then purchase yuan. From now on, nations must save trade surpluses in gold, not US treasuries or equities.
Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo. However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, Bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.
I shall pray daily to Lord Satoshi that they can infect the minds of our global class of political elites and convince them to drop acid, not bombs.
Link to substack article, https://t.co/DM8jr6TEL7
@grok please provide a summary of the article
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