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YTD announced cuts are down about 39%, yet roughly three quarters of that decline is explained by the collapse in government layoff announcements from about 300,000 last year to roughly 23,000 this year. Strip government out and the improvement is closer to 15%, and excluding government plus retail it is only around 4%. Meanwhile tech cuts are actually up roughly 54% YTD, hiring plans in September fell about 23% from a year ago to their weakest September since 2011, and the broader labor data still show weak hiring, falling temp employment, flat hours and deteriorating breadth. That is much more consistent with a low fire, low hire labor market where firms are reluctant to cut existing workers but increasingly unwilling to add new ones.
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